Your idea: Buy whenever RSI <50 and 9EMA crosses 21EMA. sell whenver RSI>75 and 2…
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Why 3.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.28R across 6,433 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.2 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 33% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -20% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: EMA crossover (9/21) with RSI confirmation filters; entry on 9EMA>21EMA + RSI<50, exit on 21EMA>9EMA + RSI>75. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 6,433 trades, win 33%, payoff 3.25, expectancy +0.28R/trade (avg +1.51%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (67% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-07-20 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +9% | -4% | +78% | +18% | -5% | +17% | +4% | -2% | +2% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 403 | 29% | -0.14R | -1.23% |
| 2019 | 850 | 31% | +0.07R | +0.22% |
| 2020 | 686 | 46% | +0.96R | +7.84% |
| 2021 | 743 | 36% | +0.36R | +2.06% |
| 2022 | 837 | 31% | +0.07R | +0.16% |
| 2023 | 806 | 42% | +1.12R | +4.74% |
| 2024 | 789 | 27% | +0.10R | +0.40% |
| 2025 | 927 | 26% | -0.08R | -0.74% |
| 2026 | 392 | 24% | -0.24R | -1.20% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 38 | 32% | +1.4% | +44% | +55% | +44% |
| 2 | ████████ | 36 | 33% | +7.3% | +60% | +262% | +39% |
| 3 | ████████ | 46 | 33% | +3.8% | +74% | +175% | +38% |
| 4 | ████████ | 34 | 35% | +4.6% | +92% | +158% | +36% |
| 5 | ████████ | 36 | 39% | +15.3% | +162% | +550% | +35% |
| 6 | ████████ | 38 | 39% | +5.2% | +86% | +198% | +34% |
| 7 | ████████ | 39 | 38% | +4.7% | +74% | +185% | +32% |
| 8 | ABB free peek | 38 | 39% | +4.5% | +68% | +173% | +24% |
| 9 | ████████ | 28 | 46% | +6.6% | +51% | +184% | +23% |
| 10 | ████████ | 36 | 39% | +9.1% | +191% | +326% | +21% |
| 11 | ████████ | 15 | 20% | -1.8% | +22% | -27% | +21% |
| 12 | ████████ | 26 | 27% | +2.3% | +53% | +61% | +18% |
| 13 | ████████ | 48 | 33% | +2.1% | +69% | +99% | +15% |
| 14 | ████████ | 39 | 36% | +1.9% | +56% | +76% | +14% |
| 15 | ████████ | 40 | 30% | +4.4% | +109% | +174% | +13% |
| 16 | ████████ | 47 | 34% | +2.3% | +72% | +110% | +12% |
| 17 | ████████ | 45 | 40% | +3.4% | +43% | +151% | +11% |
| 18 | ████████ | 45 | 38% | +2.3% | +69% | +104% | +11% |
| 19 | ████████ | 45 | 22% | +0.0% | +33% | +2% | +11% |
| 20 | ████████ | 42 | 26% | -0.2% | +39% | -6% | +11% |
| 21 | ████████ | 42 | 24% | +2.2% | +73% | +90% | -23% |
| 22 | ████████ | 44 | 23% | -0.4% | +29% | -17% | -21% |
| 23 | ████████ | 41 | 27% | +1.1% | +37% | +44% | -21% |
| 24 | ████████ | 45 | 31% | -0.4% | +20% | -19% | -20% |
| 25 | ████████ | 40 | 22% | +0.2% | +38% | +9% | -20% |
| 26 | ████████ | 39 | 36% | +3.3% | +37% | +127% | -20% |
| 27 | ████████ | 45 | 24% | +0.5% | +30% | +21% | -19% |
| 28 | ████████ | 38 | 29% | +0.6% | +32% | +24% | -19% |
| 29 | ████████ | 43 | 30% | +0.8% | +38% | +34% | -19% |
| 30 | ████████ | 41 | 29% | +1.0% | +52% | +41% | -19% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 50 | 38% | +0.41R | +0.78% |
| BANKNIFTY | 55 | 38% | +0.33R | +0.92% |
Full transcript (15 words)
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