Your idea: buy when williams percentage crosses - 90 and close the trade when it…
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Why 1.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✕ Negative expectancy: -0.18R per trade across 38 trades
- ✕ Payoff 0.70 — the average winner is SMALLER than the average loser
- ✕ Only 32% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 8 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021) — the edge is regime-dependent
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Mean reversion strategy using Williams %R (Williams Percentage Range) as oversold/overbought indicator with -90/-30 threshold crossovers. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 38 trades, win 32%, payoff 0.70, expectancy -0.18R/trade (avg -1.78%/trade).
This is a losing edge. The payoff ratio is thin. Regime-dependent — positive in only 11% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-10-06 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1% | -1% | -5% | -2% | -2% | -1% | -0% | -0% | -0% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2 | 0% | -0.37R | -3.47% |
| 2019 | 1 | 0% | -1.05R | -5.42% |
| 2020 | 11 | 45% | -0.22R | -2.33% |
| 2021 | 11 | 45% | -0.04R | -0.87% |
| 2022 | 3 | 0% | -0.40R | -3.54% |
| 2023 | 5 | 20% | -0.10R | -0.97% |
| 2024 | 3 | 33% | +0.00R | -0.50% |
| 2025 | 1 | 0% | -0.28R | -1.73% |
| 2026 | 1 | 0% | -0.14R | -1.30% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 25 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 2 | 100% | +3.1% | +4% | +6% | +0% |
| 2 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +4.2% | +4% | +4% | +0% |
| 3 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +0.8% | +1% | +1% | +0% |
| 4 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +1.2% | +1% | +1% | +0% |
| 5 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +0.9% | +1% | +1% | +0% |
| 6 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +0.6% | +1% | +1% | +0% |
| 7 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +1.4% | +1% | +1% | +0% |
| 8 | TATAPOWER free peek | 1 | 0% | -0.4% | +0% | +0% | +0% |
| 9 | ████████ | 1 | 0% | -0.3% | +0% | +0% | +0% |
| 10 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +0.3% | +0% | +0% | +0% |
| 11 | ████████ | 1 | 0% | -1.5% | +-1% | -1% | +0% |
| 12 | ████████ | 1 | 0% | -0.8% | +-1% | -1% | +0% |
| 13 | ████████ | 1 | 0% | -1.5% | +-1% | -1% | +0% |
| 14 | ████████ | 1 | 0% | -1.3% | +-1% | -1% | +0% |
| 15 | ████████ | 2 | 50% | -0.4% | +2% | -1% | +0% |
| 16 | ████████ | 3 | 33% | -0.4% | +3% | -1% | +0% |
| 17 | ████████ | 1 | 0% | -1.7% | +-2% | -2% | +0% |
| 18 | ████████ | 1 | 0% | -1.8% | +-2% | -2% | +0% |
| 19 | ████████ | 1 | 0% | -2.6% | +-3% | -3% | +0% |
| 20 | ████████ | 2 | 0% | -3.0% | +-2% | -6% | +0% |
| 21 | ████████ | 3 | 0% | -5.0% | +-1% | -15% | -1% |
| 22 | ████████ | 4 | 0% | -4.8% | +-2% | -19% | +0% |
| 23 | ████████ | 3 | 33% | -5.4% | +2% | -16% | +0% |
| 24 | ████████ | 2 | 0% | -3.6% | +-2% | -7% | +0% |
| 25 | ████████ | 1 | 0% | -6.0% | +-6% | -6% | +0% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Full transcript (19 words)
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