Your idea: buy when delivery is over 80% and over 200 DMA and sell when under 200…
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Why 3.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.11R across 5,759 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 6.5 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 17% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 4 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2022, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -44% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Trend-following strategy using 200-DMA as the trend line, with delivery concentration (80%+) as a confirmation filter for entry/exit. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 5,759 trades, win 17%, payoff 6.48, expectancy +0.11R/trade (avg +0.44%/trade).
This is a marginal edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (56% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-10-22 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10% | +3% | +74% | -3% | +7% | +5% | +6% | -6% | -6% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 553 | 11% | -0.26R | -1.92% |
| 2019 | 797 | 15% | +0.02R | -0.19% |
| 2020 | 680 | 25% | +0.62R | +4.80% |
| 2021 | 356 | 21% | +0.06R | +0.30% |
| 2022 | 850 | 15% | -0.02R | -0.31% |
| 2023 | 670 | 23% | +0.57R | +2.16% |
| 2024 | 523 | 12% | +0.08R | +0.13% |
| 2025 | 942 | 15% | -0.04R | -0.58% |
| 2026 | 388 | 13% | -0.13R | -0.80% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 22 | 36% | +9.7% | +70% | +213% | +68% |
| 2 | ████████ | 29 | 28% | +10.9% | +208% | +316% | +44% |
| 3 | ████████ | 43 | 14% | +3.4% | +92% | +148% | +43% |
| 4 | ████████ | 28 | 14% | +1.9% | +42% | +54% | +36% |
| 5 | ████████ | 42 | 14% | +2.1% | +86% | +86% | +32% |
| 6 | ████████ | 21 | 29% | +3.9% | +50% | +83% | +32% |
| 7 | ████████ | 22 | 36% | +7.4% | +48% | +164% | +28% |
| 8 | CGPOWER free peek | 14 | 29% | +13.2% | +176% | +185% | +25% |
| 9 | ████████ | 26 | 15% | -0.0% | +24% | +0% | +24% |
| 10 | ████████ | 54 | 13% | -0.1% | +44% | -8% | +21% |
| 11 | ████████ | 14 | 7% | -1.4% | +24% | -20% | +20% |
| 12 | ████████ | 33 | 12% | -0.5% | +30% | -15% | +16% |
| 13 | ████████ | 31 | 23% | +0.5% | +21% | +16% | +13% |
| 14 | ████████ | 51 | 18% | -0.3% | +38% | -15% | +13% |
| 15 | ████████ | 21 | 24% | +5.6% | +59% | +119% | +12% |
| 16 | ████████ | 37 | 19% | +0.8% | +33% | +31% | +12% |
| 17 | ████████ | 25 | 24% | +1.1% | +33% | +27% | +12% |
| 18 | ████████ | 50 | 8% | -1.6% | +11% | -80% | +11% |
| 19 | ████████ | 37 | 30% | +1.1% | +16% | +41% | +8% |
| 20 | ████████ | 49 | 16% | -0.1% | +26% | -4% | +8% |
| 21 | ████████ | 20 | 15% | +1.3% | +57% | +27% | -32% |
| 22 | ████████ | 68 | 7% | -2.1% | +21% | -144% | -29% |
| 23 | ████████ | 42 | 14% | +0.5% | +48% | +21% | -25% |
| 24 | ████████ | 41 | 12% | -0.8% | +45% | -31% | -24% |
| 25 | ████████ | 36 | 19% | -0.2% | +32% | -7% | -21% |
| 26 | ████████ | 35 | 17% | +1.3% | +45% | +44% | -20% |
| 27 | ████████ | 28 | 21% | +3.4% | +47% | +96% | -18% |
| 28 | ████████ | 45 | 13% | +0.4% | +65% | +18% | -17% |
| 29 | ████████ | 42 | 12% | -1.6% | +25% | -65% | -16% |
| 30 | ████████ | 37 | 11% | -0.4% | +49% | -16% | -16% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 42 | 26% | +0.44R | +0.85% |
| BANKNIFTY | 38 | 29% | +0.59R | +1.71% |
Full transcript (21 words)
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