Your idea: buy when ( {cash} ( daily close <= weekly ema ( weekly close , 200…
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Why 2.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✕ Roughly ZERO per-trade edge (-0.01R) — real costs eat whatever is there
- ✕ Payoff 0.69 — the average winner is SMALLER than the average loser
- ✕ 5 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2020, 2022, 2025) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -47% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Mean reversion strategy buying oversold dips (RSI < 40) when price closes below weekly 200-EMA and 1-week low, with volume confirmation. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 10,801 trades, win 59%, payoff 0.69, expectancy -0.01R/trade (avg -0.20%/trade).
This is essentially breakeven. The payoff ratio is thin. Regime-dependent — positive in only 44% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-10-22 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10% | +18% | -16% | -2% | -4% | +11% | -6% | -12% | -12% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 668 | 55% | -0.07R | -0.44% |
| 2019 | 1353 | 61% | +0.02R | -0.04% |
| 2020 | 1072 | 57% | -0.05R | -0.18% |
| 2021 | 1177 | 67% | +0.11R | +0.64% |
| 2022 | 1585 | 53% | -0.10R | -0.85% |
| 2023 | 1165 | 64% | +0.06R | +0.05% |
| 2024 | 1395 | 60% | +0.03R | +0.05% |
| 2025 | 1619 | 58% | -0.01R | -0.43% |
| 2026 | 767 | 48% | -0.10R | -0.55% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 80 | 64% | +0.2% | +19% | +19% | +38% |
| 2 | ████████ | 81 | 65% | +1.5% | +16% | +120% | +35% |
| 3 | ████████ | 84 | 63% | +1.0% | +15% | +82% | +33% |
| 4 | ████████ | 54 | 63% | +1.6% | +26% | +84% | +32% |
| 5 | ████████ | 79 | 51% | -0.3% | +20% | -21% | +32% |
| 6 | ████████ | 62 | 53% | -1.1% | +17% | -70% | +29% |
| 7 | ████████ | 64 | 58% | +0.2% | +31% | +11% | +26% |
| 8 | METROPOLIS free peek | 64 | 67% | +0.2% | +9% | +16% | +23% |
| 9 | ████████ | 59 | 66% | +0.7% | +10% | +44% | +20% |
| 10 | ████████ | 68 | 65% | +0.4% | +16% | +27% | +20% |
| 11 | ████████ | 74 | 53% | -0.7% | +12% | -48% | +20% |
| 12 | ████████ | 59 | 58% | +0.4% | +15% | +24% | +18% |
| 13 | ████████ | 72 | 56% | +0.1% | +16% | +9% | +18% |
| 14 | ████████ | 70 | 70% | +0.0% | +11% | +1% | +17% |
| 15 | ████████ | 60 | 63% | -0.1% | +9% | -4% | +17% |
| 16 | ████████ | 51 | 57% | -0.5% | +15% | -25% | +17% |
| 17 | ████████ | 89 | 73% | +0.0% | +17% | +4% | +16% |
| 18 | ████████ | 66 | 50% | -0.9% | +13% | -60% | +15% |
| 19 | ████████ | 72 | 64% | +0.9% | +23% | +65% | +14% |
| 20 | ████████ | 59 | 69% | +0.7% | +10% | +43% | +14% |
| 21 | ████████ | 88 | 51% | -1.0% | +8% | -91% | -48% |
| 22 | ████████ | 77 | 57% | +0.0% | +9% | +0% | -45% |
| 23 | ████████ | 66 | 55% | -1.0% | +14% | -66% | -42% |
| 24 | ████████ | 81 | 36% | -2.0% | +8% | -162% | -40% |
| 25 | ████████ | 65 | 52% | -1.2% | +11% | -79% | -37% |
| 26 | ████████ | 70 | 57% | +0.1% | +23% | +9% | -35% |
| 27 | ████████ | 82 | 46% | -1.4% | +9% | -117% | -32% |
| 28 | ████████ | 41 | 41% | -2.7% | +15% | -110% | -30% |
| 29 | ████████ | 47 | 47% | -1.0% | +12% | -47% | -27% |
| 30 | ████████ | 82 | 57% | -0.2% | +9% | -16% | -24% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 83 | 60% | -0.00R | -0.22% |
| BANKNIFTY | 85 | 53% | -0.08R | -0.34% |
Full transcript (39 words)
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