Your idea: buy when 9 ema crosses above 18 EMA and the prices closes above 18 ema…
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Why 3.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.28R across 6,954 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.2 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 33% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Most of the big total return is compounding in a rising market (beta) — the per-trade edge above is what would survive a different regime
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: 9-EMA crosses 18-EMA on 15-minute intraday chart with close confirmation; buy on upside cross, sell on downside cross. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 6,954 trades, win 33%, payoff 3.23, expectancy +0.28R/trade (avg +1.49%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (67% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +13% | +12% | +53% | +17% | -1% | +13% | -0% | -4% | -3% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 418 | 30% | -0.12R | -1.12% |
| 2019 | 905 | 31% | +0.06R | +0.20% |
| 2020 | 771 | 46% | +0.90R | +7.15% |
| 2021 | 815 | 35% | +0.40R | +2.39% |
| 2022 | 890 | 32% | +0.08R | +0.21% |
| 2023 | 892 | 41% | +1.02R | +4.34% |
| 2024 | 860 | 28% | +0.11R | +0.43% |
| 2025 | 991 | 26% | -0.09R | -0.80% |
| 2026 | 412 | 24% | -0.23R | -1.12% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 38 | 47% | +15.8% | +162% | +601% | +50% |
| 2 | ████████ | 43 | 35% | +1.7% | +44% | +71% | +44% |
| 3 | ████████ | 40 | 38% | +8.6% | +66% | +346% | +36% |
| 4 | ████████ | 51 | 31% | +5.4% | +130% | +276% | +34% |
| 5 | ████████ | 40 | 30% | +4.1% | +92% | +162% | +34% |
| 6 | ████████ | 42 | 36% | +5.0% | +74% | +210% | +31% |
| 7 | ████████ | 46 | 33% | +3.8% | +86% | +175% | +31% |
| 8 | BANDHANBNK free peek | 17 | 18% | -1.8% | +22% | -31% | +26% |
| 9 | ████████ | 40 | 45% | +11.3% | +191% | +452% | +25% |
| 10 | ████████ | 45 | 38% | +3.8% | +68% | +169% | +24% |
| 11 | ████████ | 30 | 53% | +7.2% | +51% | +217% | +20% |
| 12 | ████████ | 46 | 37% | +2.5% | +71% | +114% | +17% |
| 13 | ████████ | 29 | 24% | +1.9% | +55% | +56% | +17% |
| 14 | ████████ | 43 | 37% | +1.2% | +56% | +50% | +16% |
| 15 | ████████ | 49 | 33% | +1.3% | +45% | +63% | +14% |
| 16 | ████████ | 46 | 37% | +0.6% | +43% | +27% | +14% |
| 17 | ████████ | 48 | 31% | +2.7% | +109% | +129% | +13% |
| 18 | ████████ | 35 | 40% | +2.8% | +52% | +97% | +12% |
| 19 | ████████ | 49 | 39% | +3.0% | +39% | +147% | +11% |
| 20 | ████████ | 50 | 34% | +2.0% | +72% | +102% | +10% |
| 21 | ████████ | 49 | 29% | +1.6% | +61% | +79% | -23% |
| 22 | ████████ | 44 | 23% | +0.1% | +36% | +2% | -22% |
| 23 | ████████ | 43 | 33% | +2.6% | +38% | +113% | -22% |
| 24 | ████████ | 50 | 28% | +0.1% | +46% | +7% | -21% |
| 25 | ████████ | 42 | 24% | +0.9% | +44% | +36% | -21% |
| 26 | ████████ | 50 | 40% | +1.1% | +26% | +54% | -21% |
| 27 | ████████ | 46 | 30% | -0.6% | +23% | -28% | -20% |
| 28 | ████████ | 54 | 24% | -0.3% | +34% | -16% | -19% |
| 29 | ████████ | 47 | 28% | +0.2% | +45% | +10% | -19% |
| 30 | ████████ | 54 | 28% | +0.2% | +34% | +11% | -19% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 56 | 32% | +0.26R | +0.53% |
| BANKNIFTY | 62 | 37% | +0.25R | +0.58% |
Full transcript (37 words)
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