Your idea: buy when 7 ema is above 21 ema sell when its below no sl just position…
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Why 3.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.27R across 7,239 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.3 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 32% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -22% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Fast EMA (7) crossing slow EMA (21) with position switching; no stop-loss, directional trend-following. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 7,239 trades, win 32%, payoff 3.34, expectancy +0.27R/trade (avg +1.45%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (67% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +9% | +1% | +62% | +15% | -9% | +16% | +2% | -8% | +4% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 433 | 29% | -0.13R | -1.18% |
| 2019 | 955 | 30% | +0.07R | +0.20% |
| 2020 | 786 | 44% | +0.86R | +6.80% |
| 2021 | 850 | 35% | +0.40R | +2.40% |
| 2022 | 931 | 31% | +0.09R | +0.36% |
| 2023 | 917 | 41% | +1.01R | +4.27% |
| 2024 | 904 | 28% | +0.09R | +0.36% |
| 2025 | 1039 | 25% | -0.07R | -0.70% |
| 2026 | 424 | 25% | -0.21R | -1.03% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 41 | 46% | +15.0% | +162% | +616% | +50% |
| 2 | ████████ | 45 | 31% | +1.5% | +44% | +69% | +44% |
| 3 | ████████ | 40 | 42% | +12.7% | +159% | +506% | +39% |
| 4 | ████████ | 42 | 31% | +4.1% | +92% | +174% | +36% |
| 5 | ████████ | 51 | 31% | +5.5% | +130% | +282% | +34% |
| 6 | ████████ | 42 | 40% | +4.8% | +74% | +200% | +32% |
| 7 | ████████ | 46 | 33% | +3.6% | +86% | +164% | +31% |
| 8 | BANDHANBNK free peek | 17 | 18% | -1.6% | +22% | -26% | +29% |
| 9 | ████████ | 46 | 37% | +3.6% | +68% | +163% | +27% |
| 10 | ████████ | 39 | 49% | +11.3% | +191% | +442% | +25% |
| 11 | ████████ | 31 | 48% | +7.1% | +55% | +221% | +19% |
| 12 | ████████ | 31 | 23% | +1.4% | +55% | +43% | +18% |
| 13 | ████████ | 45 | 36% | +1.1% | +56% | +51% | +16% |
| 14 | ████████ | 48 | 35% | +2.1% | +71% | +101% | +15% |
| 15 | ████████ | 45 | 42% | +1.0% | +41% | +43% | +15% |
| 16 | ████████ | 48 | 33% | +3.0% | +109% | +142% | +13% |
| 17 | ████████ | 36 | 36% | +2.4% | +52% | +86% | +12% |
| 18 | ████████ | 51 | 41% | +3.0% | +40% | +155% | +11% |
| 19 | ████████ | 47 | 34% | +4.4% | +81% | +209% | +10% |
| 20 | ████████ | 50 | 38% | +2.2% | +42% | +108% | +9% |
| 21 | ████████ | 42 | 24% | +0.7% | +44% | +30% | -22% |
| 22 | ████████ | 51 | 29% | -0.6% | +21% | -30% | -21% |
| 23 | ████████ | 52 | 37% | +1.0% | +26% | +53% | -20% |
| 24 | ████████ | 44 | 32% | +2.5% | +37% | +111% | -20% |
| 25 | ████████ | 55 | 22% | -0.3% | +34% | -19% | -19% |
| 26 | ████████ | 49 | 27% | +0.1% | +45% | +6% | -19% |
| 27 | ████████ | 52 | 29% | +0.4% | +34% | +19% | -19% |
| 28 | ████████ | 38 | 39% | +1.2% | +34% | +47% | -19% |
| 29 | ████████ | 11 | 45% | +4.6% | +31% | +50% | -19% |
| 30 | ████████ | 46 | 17% | -0.1% | +38% | -6% | -18% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 56 | 34% | +0.30R | +0.61% |
| BANKNIFTY | 63 | 35% | +0.25R | +0.60% |
Full transcript (21 words)
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