Your idea: Buy niftybees whenever it falls below 30dma, sell when it crosses
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Why 2.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✕ Roughly ZERO per-trade edge (+0.02R) — real costs eat whatever is there
- ✕ Max drawdown -40% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Buy dips below 30-day moving average on NIFTYBEES ETF; sell on MA crossover (mean reversion to trend line). Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 3,280 trades, win 50%, payoff 1.02, expectancy +0.02R/trade (avg -0.06%/trade).
This is essentially breakeven. The payoff ratio is thin. Reasonably consistent (78% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -8% | +4% | -15% | +18% | -10% | +7% | +2% | -9% | -8% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 247 | 52% | +0.00R | +0.14% |
| 2019 | 433 | 54% | +0.08R | +0.53% |
| 2020 | 465 | 34% | -0.31R | -2.17% |
| 2021 | 190 | 66% | +0.32R | +1.86% |
| 2022 | 482 | 50% | +0.01R | -0.16% |
| 2023 | 290 | 59% | +0.18R | +0.44% |
| 2024 | 373 | 50% | -0.00R | -0.27% |
| 2025 | 492 | 54% | +0.09R | +0.35% |
| 2026 | 308 | 47% | +0.01R | +0.24% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 27 | 56% | +0.8% | +25% | +21% | +38% |
| 2 | ████████ | 21 | 57% | -0.4% | +18% | -8% | +27% |
| 3 | ████████ | 22 | 55% | +1.5% | +26% | +34% | +26% |
| 4 | ████████ | 16 | 50% | +0.4% | +12% | +7% | +18% |
| 5 | ████████ | 19 | 74% | +3.9% | +20% | +73% | +17% |
| 6 | ████████ | 18 | 56% | +1.8% | +15% | +33% | +15% |
| 7 | ████████ | 22 | 64% | +0.8% | +8% | +17% | +15% |
| 8 | INFY free peek | 31 | 42% | -0.5% | +23% | -16% | +15% |
| 9 | ████████ | 31 | 61% | +2.5% | +16% | +76% | +14% |
| 10 | ████████ | 25 | 52% | +0.3% | +14% | +9% | +14% |
| 11 | ████████ | 25 | 44% | -1.2% | +8% | -31% | +14% |
| 12 | ████████ | 19 | 21% | -4.7% | +20% | -90% | +14% |
| 13 | ████████ | 20 | 65% | +2.0% | +13% | +39% | +13% |
| 14 | ████████ | 14 | 64% | +2.7% | +17% | +38% | +13% |
| 15 | ████████ | 20 | 60% | -0.0% | +7% | +0% | +13% |
| 16 | ████████ | 21 | 52% | -1.5% | +19% | -31% | +13% |
| 17 | ████████ | 15 | 60% | +2.6% | +16% | +38% | +12% |
| 18 | ████████ | 20 | 65% | +1.1% | +11% | +22% | +12% |
| 19 | ████████ | 17 | 65% | +1.9% | +15% | +32% | +11% |
| 20 | ████████ | 27 | 56% | +0.9% | +18% | +25% | +11% |
| 21 | ████████ | 30 | 43% | -1.3% | +7% | -40% | -31% |
| 22 | ████████ | 24 | 46% | -0.6% | +15% | -15% | -27% |
| 23 | ████████ | 21 | 19% | -4.5% | +12% | -94% | -25% |
| 24 | ████████ | 17 | 29% | -1.6% | +10% | -27% | -18% |
| 25 | ████████ | 22 | 55% | +0.4% | +11% | +8% | -18% |
| 26 | ████████ | 25 | 32% | -2.6% | +7% | -66% | -17% |
| 27 | ████████ | 29 | 34% | -1.8% | +15% | -52% | -17% |
| 28 | ████████ | 21 | 33% | -2.2% | +8% | -45% | -16% |
| 29 | ████████ | 15 | 47% | +0.1% | +7% | +1% | -16% |
| 30 | ████████ | 12 | 58% | +1.0% | +23% | +12% | -16% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 22 | 45% | -0.10R | -0.35% |
| BANKNIFTY | 27 | 59% | +0.18R | +1.60% |
Full transcript (11 words)
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