Your idea: Buy Nifty when it hit 50EMA on monthly chart and sell when it closes 1…
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Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ Strong per-trade edge: +0.33R expectancy across 3,925 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.6 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 30% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 4 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2022, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -27% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Monthly timeframe moving average crossover strategy: buy when price touches 50-EMA, sell on close below 10-EMA. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 3,925 trades, win 30%, payoff 3.58, expectancy +0.33R/trade (avg +1.70%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (56% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +8% | +8% | +15% | +15% | -15% | +12% | +10% | -0% | -1% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 284 | 20% | -0.36R | -2.48% |
| 2019 | 517 | 27% | +0.07R | +0.33% |
| 2020 | 447 | 45% | +1.15R | +9.08% |
| 2021 | 401 | 34% | +0.29R | +1.56% |
| 2022 | 568 | 25% | -0.03R | -0.50% |
| 2023 | 474 | 46% | +1.59R | +6.62% |
| 2024 | 423 | 23% | +0.21R | +0.84% |
| 2025 | 547 | 28% | -0.02R | -0.46% |
| 2026 | 264 | 19% | -0.34R | -1.66% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 27 | 30% | +1.9% | +47% | +52% | +42% |
| 2 | ████████ | 20 | 50% | +11.3% | +54% | +226% | +37% |
| 3 | ████████ | 27 | 19% | +0.2% | +39% | +6% | +37% |
| 4 | ████████ | 21 | 52% | +14.6% | +59% | +308% | +36% |
| 5 | ████████ | 20 | 35% | +5.8% | +44% | +115% | +34% |
| 6 | ████████ | 27 | 33% | +13.4% | +162% | +362% | +33% |
| 7 | ████████ | 22 | 45% | +7.8% | +54% | +173% | +32% |
| 8 | CGPOWER free peek | 22 | 32% | +13.1% | +241% | +287% | +24% |
| 9 | ████████ | 24 | 33% | +5.9% | +89% | +141% | +23% |
| 10 | ████████ | 14 | 36% | +5.7% | +38% | +80% | +18% |
| 11 | ████████ | 21 | 48% | +7.9% | +67% | +166% | +16% |
| 12 | ████████ | 22 | 45% | +3.4% | +36% | +74% | +16% |
| 13 | ████████ | 21 | 48% | +8.6% | +66% | +180% | +13% |
| 14 | ████████ | 26 | 27% | +4.1% | +67% | +107% | +13% |
| 15 | ████████ | 26 | 27% | +1.2% | +56% | +31% | +11% |
| 16 | ████████ | 24 | 38% | +4.1% | +43% | +100% | +10% |
| 17 | ████████ | 24 | 29% | +1.0% | +48% | +23% | +10% |
| 18 | ████████ | 24 | 25% | +0.2% | +33% | +4% | +9% |
| 19 | ████████ | 17 | 29% | -0.4% | +19% | -7% | +9% |
| 20 | ████████ | 29 | 38% | +0.1% | +15% | +3% | +8% |
| 21 | ████████ | 33 | 24% | -1.1% | +30% | -35% | -23% |
| 22 | ████████ | 27 | 22% | +1.0% | +50% | +28% | -22% |
| 23 | ████████ | 27 | 30% | +1.3% | +27% | +34% | -17% |
| 24 | ████████ | 33 | 24% | +1.1% | +30% | +35% | -17% |
| 25 | ████████ | 30 | 30% | +3.0% | +67% | +90% | -17% |
| 26 | ████████ | 6 | 33% | +4.5% | +44% | +27% | -16% |
| 27 | ████████ | 33 | 18% | -1.6% | +16% | -52% | -15% |
| 28 | ████████ | 30 | 30% | -1.6% | +13% | -47% | -15% |
| 29 | ████████ | 28 | 29% | -1.0% | +37% | -27% | -14% |
| 30 | ████████ | 26 | 27% | -0.6% | +33% | -16% | -14% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 30 | 40% | +0.48R | +0.47% |
| BANKNIFTY | 31 | 48% | +0.67R | +2.18% |
Full transcript (18 words)
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