Your idea: BUY / HOLD NIFTY Daily close above 30-day SMA Stay invested in NIFTY…
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Why 3.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.10R across 15,360 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 4.3 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 24% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -31% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Trend-following strategy using 30-day SMA crossover on NIFTY 50; buy above SMA, exit below, re-enter on cross back above. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 15,360 trades, win 24%, payoff 4.26, expectancy +0.10R/trade (avg +0.40%/trade).
This is a marginal edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (56% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -13% | +6% | +60% | +25% | -16% | +14% | +11% | -9% | -3% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 957 | 20% | -0.11R | -0.95% |
| 2019 | 2000 | 22% | -0.00R | -0.28% |
| 2020 | 1720 | 30% | +0.39R | +2.82% |
| 2021 | 1882 | 25% | +0.17R | +0.86% |
| 2022 | 1987 | 23% | +0.01R | -0.19% |
| 2023 | 1853 | 28% | +0.46R | +1.79% |
| 2024 | 1897 | 24% | +0.05R | +0.03% |
| 2025 | 2188 | 20% | -0.04R | -0.51% |
| 2026 | 876 | 19% | -0.15R | -0.84% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 85 | 27% | +7.2% | +173% | +609% | +60% |
| 2 | ████████ | 90 | 22% | +4.0% | +130% | +363% | +47% |
| 3 | ████████ | 96 | 28% | +0.8% | +46% | +73% | +41% |
| 4 | ████████ | 87 | 28% | +4.6% | +199% | +403% | +38% |
| 5 | ████████ | 90 | 21% | +1.3% | +99% | +121% | +37% |
| 6 | ████████ | 93 | 28% | +5.2% | +150% | +482% | +36% |
| 7 | ████████ | 81 | 30% | +2.5% | +94% | +205% | +32% |
| 8 | BANDHANBNK free peek | 32 | 16% | -1.6% | +24% | -52% | +32% |
| 9 | ████████ | 56 | 45% | +5.3% | +55% | +296% | +26% |
| 10 | ████████ | 85 | 27% | +2.3% | +77% | +192% | +24% |
| 11 | ████████ | 95 | 25% | +1.6% | +68% | +151% | +20% |
| 12 | ████████ | 115 | 17% | +0.2% | +66% | +26% | +18% |
| 13 | ████████ | 59 | 15% | +0.4% | +55% | +24% | +15% |
| 14 | ████████ | 104 | 27% | +1.1% | +36% | +111% | +14% |
| 15 | ████████ | 98 | 27% | +0.6% | +56% | +63% | +14% |
| 16 | ████████ | 105 | 25% | +0.4% | +71% | +41% | +13% |
| 17 | ████████ | 87 | 21% | +0.2% | +55% | +14% | +13% |
| 18 | ████████ | 93 | 32% | +0.7% | +37% | +69% | +10% |
| 19 | ████████ | 99 | 20% | -0.6% | +33% | -56% | +10% |
| 20 | ████████ | 98 | 31% | +0.8% | +42% | +75% | +9% |
| 21 | ████████ | 98 | 24% | -0.0% | +33% | -1% | -34% |
| 22 | ████████ | 73 | 33% | +2.9% | +91% | +212% | -29% |
| 23 | ████████ | 105 | 26% | +0.3% | +46% | +30% | -24% |
| 24 | ████████ | 127 | 13% | -1.1% | +42% | -143% | -23% |
| 25 | ████████ | 104 | 20% | -0.4% | +38% | -43% | -23% |
| 26 | ████████ | 97 | 21% | +0.0% | +50% | +3% | -23% |
| 27 | ████████ | 105 | 24% | +0.2% | +34% | +17% | -23% |
| 28 | ████████ | 110 | 23% | -0.0% | +52% | -4% | -22% |
| 29 | ████████ | 103 | 24% | +1.1% | +107% | +113% | -22% |
| 30 | ████████ | 97 | 23% | +0.3% | +38% | +29% | -21% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 133 | 26% | +0.12R | +0.08% |
| BANKNIFTY | 113 | 31% | +0.24R | +0.60% |
Full transcript (46 words)
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