Your idea: buy ES future using $2 range charts using weighted average 8 over 21 a…
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Why 3.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.28R across 6,803 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.3 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 32% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -22% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Dual weighted-average (WMA 8/21 and WMA 36/50) crossover on ES futures on $2 range charts; mechanically backtestable but exact entry/exit rules for the two MA pairs not fully specified. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 6,803 trades, win 32%, payoff 3.27, expectancy +0.28R/trade (avg +1.48%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (67% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +13% | -0% | +63% | +18% | -8% | +26% | +2% | +1% | -7% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 416 | 30% | -0.11R | -1.07% |
| 2019 | 898 | 30% | +0.06R | +0.18% |
| 2020 | 733 | 45% | +0.91R | +7.30% |
| 2021 | 794 | 36% | +0.38R | +2.21% |
| 2022 | 873 | 31% | +0.08R | +0.20% |
| 2023 | 854 | 42% | +1.08R | +4.58% |
| 2024 | 834 | 27% | +0.11R | +0.49% |
| 2025 | 987 | 25% | -0.09R | -0.77% |
| 2026 | 414 | 24% | -0.23R | -1.12% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 39 | 44% | +15.3% | +162% | +597% | +50% |
| 2 | ████████ | 42 | 38% | +1.6% | +44% | +67% | +44% |
| 3 | ████████ | 36 | 39% | +10.1% | +82% | +362% | +36% |
| 4 | ████████ | 51 | 33% | +5.5% | +130% | +279% | +34% |
| 5 | ████████ | 42 | 33% | +4.6% | +86% | +192% | +34% |
| 6 | ████████ | 38 | 45% | +5.5% | +74% | +209% | +32% |
| 7 | ████████ | 39 | 31% | +4.2% | +92% | +166% | +32% |
| 8 | BANDHANBNK free peek | 17 | 18% | -1.8% | +22% | -30% | +26% |
| 9 | ████████ | 40 | 40% | +4.2% | +68% | +168% | +24% |
| 10 | ████████ | 39 | 36% | +8.6% | +191% | +334% | +23% |
| 11 | ████████ | 28 | 46% | +6.3% | +51% | +178% | +20% |
| 12 | ████████ | 29 | 24% | +1.9% | +55% | +55% | +18% |
| 13 | ████████ | 43 | 42% | +0.9% | +43% | +39% | +18% |
| 14 | ████████ | 42 | 33% | +1.7% | +56% | +71% | +16% |
| 15 | ████████ | 43 | 30% | +3.7% | +109% | +158% | +13% |
| 16 | ████████ | 47 | 34% | +2.3% | +71% | +110% | +12% |
| 17 | ████████ | 52 | 31% | +0.7% | +42% | +35% | +12% |
| 18 | ████████ | 46 | 43% | +3.3% | +42% | +153% | +11% |
| 19 | ████████ | 46 | 35% | +2.3% | +69% | +106% | +11% |
| 20 | ████████ | 47 | 38% | +2.2% | +42% | +104% | +9% |
| 21 | ████████ | 46 | 17% | -0.3% | +38% | -15% | -22% |
| 22 | ████████ | 48 | 29% | -0.8% | +20% | -40% | -21% |
| 23 | ████████ | 41 | 24% | +1.1% | +48% | +44% | -20% |
| 24 | ████████ | 41 | 34% | +3.0% | +37% | +124% | -20% |
| 25 | ████████ | 52 | 23% | -0.4% | +34% | -21% | -19% |
| 26 | ████████ | 45 | 29% | +0.4% | +56% | +18% | -19% |
| 27 | ████████ | 37 | 35% | +1.3% | +32% | +49% | -19% |
| 28 | ████████ | 45 | 42% | +1.4% | +26% | +65% | -19% |
| 29 | ████████ | 43 | 28% | +2.4% | +61% | +102% | -18% |
| 30 | ████████ | 54 | 26% | -1.3% | +18% | -72% | -17% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 57 | 32% | +0.24R | +0.46% |
| BANKNIFTY | 62 | 37% | +0.25R | +0.58% |
Full transcript (19 words)
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