Your idea: Buy CE condition Opening-range high is broken. A completed 5-minute ca… — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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Your idea: Buy CE condition Opening-range high is broken. A completed 5-minute ca…

💡 Described strategy
Analysed 19 Oct 2026, 09:51 PM IST
★☆☆☆☆ 1.0 / 5

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

EMAVWAP

Verdict

Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: an opening-range breakout on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 30% / target 60% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread. The video trades BANKNIFTY; NIFTY weeklies are the closest instrument we have real premiums for, so the same rules were run on NIFTY.

1,945 trades on ₹1L: net -321.7% over 12 years (-26.8%/yr, loses money), win 38%, payoff 1.44 (avg win ₹2,996 / avg loss ₹-2,082), max drawdown -340%, worst trade ₹-10,428. 2015: ₹-7,744. 2016: ₹-31,281. 2017: ₹-29,850. 2018: ₹-11,605. 2019: ₹+4,190. 2020: ₹-14,033. 2021: ₹-46,242. 2022: ₹-47,834. 2023: ₹-86,472. 2024: ₹+64,088. 2025: ₹-69,115. 2026: ₹-45,821.

Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.

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Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)

YearTradesWin %Net P&L
20156742% ₹-7,744
201612636% ₹-31,281
201715337% ₹-29,850
201814642% ₹-11,605
201914841% ₹+4,190
202016440% ₹-14,033
202124736% ₹-46,242
202219440% ₹-47,834
202319030% ₹-86,472
202416040% ₹+64,088
202524437% ₹-69,115
202610639% ₹-45,821
Full transcript (68 words)
Buy CE condition Opening-range high is broken. A completed 5-minute candle closes above the opening-range high. SENSEX is above VWAP. EMA 9 is above EMA 21. Enter only after all four conditions are true. Buy PE condition Opening-range low is broken. A completed 5-minute candle closes below the opening-range low. SENSEX is below VWAP. EMA 9 is below EMA 21. Enter only after all four conditions are true.

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Results are AI-generated from stored historical market data and are for educational purposes only — they cannot be treated as 100% accurate, nor as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Strategies from non-Indian markets are also backtested on Indian market data only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.