Your idea: Buy call option when 50 EMA crosses 200 EMA in 1 min timeframe and the…
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Verdict
Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: an EMA crossover on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 2% / target 5% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread.
391 trades on ₹1L: net -51.1% over 12 years (-4.3%/yr, loses money), win 18%, payoff 1.44 (avg win ₹337 / avg loss ₹-235), max drawdown -51%, worst trade ₹-536. 2015: ₹-1,679. 2016: ₹-3,353. 2017: ₹-2,203. 2018: ₹-2,912. 2019: ₹-2,353. 2020: ₹-2,133. 2021: ₹-6,604. 2022: ₹-4,204. 2023: ₹-3,248. 2024: ₹-4,274. 2025: ₹-10,166. 2026: ₹-7,986.
Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 14 | 21% | ₹-1,679 |
| 2016 | 27 | 11% | ₹-3,353 |
| 2017 | 27 | 22% | ₹-2,203 |
| 2018 | 30 | 23% | ₹-2,912 |
| 2019 | 30 | 27% | ₹-2,353 |
| 2020 | 33 | 21% | ₹-2,133 |
| 2021 | 54 | 19% | ₹-6,604 |
| 2022 | 36 | 19% | ₹-4,204 |
| 2023 | 37 | 24% | ₹-3,248 |
| 2024 | 29 | 17% | ₹-4,274 |
| 2025 | 43 | 7% | ₹-10,166 |
| 2026 | 31 | 10% | ₹-7,986 |
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