Your idea: buy an ATM nifty option (either call or put) only when 9 EMA crosses 1… — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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Your idea: buy an ATM nifty option (either call or put) only when 9 EMA crosses 1…

💡 Described strategy
Analysed 12 Sep 2026, 12:09 PM IST
★☆☆☆☆ 1.0 / 5

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

EMA

Verdict

Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: an EMA crossover on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 3% / target 12% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread.

3,167 trades on ₹1L: net -323.2% over 12 years (-26.9%/yr, loses money), win 18%, payoff 2.69 (avg win ₹836 / avg loss ₹-311), max drawdown -324%, worst trade ₹-1,297. 2015: ₹-11,610. 2016: ₹-9,386. 2017: ₹-12,000. 2018: ₹-4,513. 2019: ₹-12,692. 2020: ₹-35,228. 2021: ₹-35,571. 2022: ₹-23,052. 2023: ₹-38,239. 2024: ₹-39,047. 2025: ₹-62,839. 2026: ₹-39,064.

Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.

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Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)

YearTradesWin %Net P&L
201513522% ₹-11,610
201620823% ₹-9,386
201725023% ₹-12,000
201824024% ₹-4,513
201923221% ₹-12,692
202025618% ₹-35,228
202137317% ₹-35,571
202231620% ₹-23,052
202331813% ₹-38,239
202427415% ₹-39,047
202539315% ₹-62,839
202617213% ₹-39,064
Full transcript (37 words)
buy an ATM nifty option (either call or put) only when 9 EMA crosses 15 ema and they are moving away from each on a bullish candle pattern . Stop loss -3% and profit book at 12%

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Results are AI-generated from stored historical market data and are for educational purposes only — they cannot be treated as 100% accurate, nor as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Strategies from non-Indian markets are also backtested on Indian market data only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.