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Your idea: Backtest this exact strategy on NIFTY 50. Timeframe: 15 minutes…
💡 Described strategy
Analysed 14 Aug 2026, 06:37 AM IST
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Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ Strong per-trade edge: +0.36R expectancy across 13,425 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.3 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 32% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 5 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2022, 2025) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -32% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Multi-timeframe EMA trend + 20-candle Donchian breakout with retest/continuation confirmation, ATR-based risk management on NIFTY 15-min chart with 60-min trend filter. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 13,425 trades, win 32%, payoff 3.25, expectancy +0.36R/trade (avg +1.84%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Regime-dependent — positive in only 44% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-08-14 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
Return+49.8%
CAGR+5.2%
Max drawdown-32.2%
Trades361 · 99 won
₹200,000 → ₹299,657
· 2018-07-10 → 2026-06-08
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1% | +1% | +33% | +29% | -9% | +16% | +3% | -11% | -11% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 657 | 16% | -0.59R | -3.78% |
| 2019 | 1314 | 27% | -0.02R | -0.01% |
| 2020 | 1817 | 44% | +0.99R | +7.31% |
| 2021 | 1801 | 35% | +0.44R | +2.56% |
| 2022 | 1664 | 26% | -0.07R | -0.74% |
| 2023 | 2119 | 44% | +1.32R | +5.57% |
| 2024 | 1835 | 27% | +0.13R | +0.34% |
| 2025 | 1504 | 29% | -0.02R | -0.39% |
| 2026 | 714 | 22% | -0.36R | -1.72% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 82 | 51% | +25.3% | +181% | +2077% | +198% |
| 2 | ████████ | 99 | 51% | +19.0% | +124% | +1880% | +159% |
| 3 | ████████ | 76 | 33% | +3.6% | +52% | +277% | +143% |
| 4 | ████████ | 78 | 42% | +6.4% | +85% | +500% | +137% |
| 5 | ████████ | 75 | 41% | +9.0% | +125% | +672% | +75% |
| 6 | ████████ | 69 | 36% | +3.6% | +101% | +246% | +71% |
| 7 | ████████ | 95 | 34% | +2.6% | +68% | +246% | +64% |
| 8 | CUMMINSIND free peek | 106 | 43% | +6.8% | +61% | +717% | +51% |
| 9 | ████████ | 94 | 40% | +4.1% | +66% | +383% | +40% |
| 10 | ████████ | 48 | 38% | +4.1% | +55% | +198% | +29% |
| 11 | ████████ | 102 | 34% | +4.0% | +65% | +406% | +27% |
| 12 | ████████ | 98 | 46% | +7.5% | +59% | +738% | +23% |
| 13 | ████████ | 111 | 34% | +0.8% | +32% | +86% | +19% |
| 14 | ████████ | 103 | 37% | +3.2% | +61% | +332% | +3% |
| 15 | ████████ | 81 | 36% | -0.6% | +15% | -46% | +1% |
| 16 | ████████ | 93 | 31% | +3.1% | +61% | +293% | +0% |
| 17 | ████████ | 92 | 39% | +2.1% | +32% | +194% | +0% |
| 18 | ████████ | 83 | 33% | +2.0% | +46% | +170% | +0% |
| 19 | ████████ | 100 | 31% | +1.7% | +50% | +170% | +0% |
| 20 | ████████ | 80 | 34% | +0.2% | +36% | +19% | +0% |
| 21 | ████████ | 70 | 27% | +2.1% | +60% | +150% | -46% |
| 22 | ████████ | 97 | 31% | +2.8% | +106% | +269% | -45% |
| 23 | ████████ | 89 | 21% | -1.1% | +34% | -96% | -40% |
| 24 | ████████ | 85 | 28% | -0.0% | +32% | -3% | -40% |
| 25 | ████████ | 108 | 30% | +1.4% | +69% | +151% | -37% |
| 26 | ████████ | 70 | 23% | +0.1% | +107% | +7% | -36% |
| 27 | ████████ | 95 | 20% | -1.6% | +33% | -149% | -35% |
| 28 | ████████ | 93 | 39% | +1.2% | +29% | +115% | -34% |
| 29 | ████████ | 90 | 33% | +2.3% | +69% | +205% | -34% |
| 30 | ████████ | 104 | 31% | +2.2% | +81% | +232% | -34% |
You can see the numbers — see the names.
Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel.
The worst stock in this table returned -149% under these
exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 175 | 32% | +0.03R | -0.10% |
| BANKNIFTY | 160 | 32% | +0.21R | +0.54% |
Full transcript (470 words)
Backtest this exact strategy on NIFTY 50.
Timeframe: 15 minutes.
Backtest period: 1 January 2019 to 7 August 2026.
ENTRY FOR LONG / BUY CALL SIGNAL:
1. NIFTY price must be above the 20 EMA.
2. 20 EMA must be above the 50 EMA.
3. The 60-minute higher-timeframe trend must also be bullish:
60-minute price above its 20 EMA and 20 EMA above its 50 EMA.
4. NIFTY must break above the highest high of the previous 20 fifteen-minute candles.
5. The breakout candle must close bullish.
6. Candle body must be at least 0.25 ATR.
7. Volume must be at least 1.10 times the average volume of the previous 20 candles.
8. Price must not be more than 1 ATR above the 20 EMA.
9. After the breakout, allow either:
a) a retest of the breakout level within the next 5 candles, followed by a bullish close above the breakout level,
OR
b) continuation above the breakout level within the next 2 candles while the bullish trend and volume conditions remain valid.
10. Enter only after the confirmation candle closes.
11. Do not enter another trade until at least 4 candles have passed after the previous entry.
ENTRY FOR SHORT / BUY PUT SIGNAL:
Use exactly the opposite conditions:
1. NIFTY price below the 20 EMA.
2. 20 EMA below the 50 EMA.
3. 60-minute higher-timeframe trend bearish:
60-minute price below its 20 EMA and 20 EMA below its 50 EMA.
4. NIFTY breaks below the lowest low of the previous 20 fifteen-minute candles.
5. Breakdown candle closes bearish.
6. Candle body at least 0.25 ATR.
7. Volume at least 1.10 times the average volume of the previous 20 candles.
8. Price must not be more than 1 ATR below the 20 EMA.
9. After breakdown, allow either:
a) retest of breakdown level within next 5 candles followed by bearish close below the level,
OR
b) continuation below the breakdown level within next 2 candles while bearish trend and volume conditions remain valid.
10. Enter only after confirmation candle closes.
11. Minimum 4-candle cooldown between entries.
RISK MANAGEMENT:
ATR length = 14.
Stop loss = 1.20 ATR from entry.
Target 1 = 1.00R.
Target 2 = 2.00R.
Close 50% at Target 1 and remaining 50% at Target 2.
Include realistic brokerage, taxes, slippage and other applicable trading costs.
Do not use future data.
Do not repaint.
Do not use hindsight.
Report separately:
1. Total trades
2. Long trades
3. Short trades
4. Winning trades
5. Losing trades
6. Win percentage
7. Loss percentage
8. Profit factor
9. Net profit
10. Maximum drawdown
11. Average winning trade
12. Average losing trade
13. Expectancy
14. Year-by-year results from 2019 through 2026
15. Long/BUY CALL performance separately
16. Short/BUY PUT performance separately
17. Number of trades per year
18. Worst losing streak
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