Y
Your idea: Backtest the following trading strategy on all current NIFTY 50 stocks…
💡 Described strategy
Analysed 14 Sep 2026, 01:39 AM IST
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Why 2.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✕ Roughly ZERO per-trade edge (+0.02R) — real costs eat whatever is there
- ✕ Max drawdown -40% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Claims it makes (quotes pulled from the transcript)
- “- If the stock's daily return is exactly 0% → No action.”
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Daily mean-reversion strategy: buy after green days, sell after red days on NIFTY 50 stocks with no shorting allowed. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 3,280 trades, win 50%, payoff 1.02, expectancy +0.02R/trade (avg -0.06%/trade).
This is essentially breakeven. The payoff ratio is thin. Reasonably consistent (78% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
Return-20.3%
CAGR-2.8%
Max drawdown-39.6%
Trades592 · 286 won
₹200,000 → ₹159,448
· 2018-07-10 → 2026-06-08
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -8% | +4% | -15% | +18% | -10% | +7% | +2% | -9% | -8% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 247 | 52% | +0.00R | +0.14% |
| 2019 | 433 | 54% | +0.08R | +0.53% |
| 2020 | 465 | 34% | -0.31R | -2.17% |
| 2021 | 190 | 66% | +0.32R | +1.86% |
| 2022 | 482 | 50% | +0.01R | -0.16% |
| 2023 | 290 | 59% | +0.18R | +0.44% |
| 2024 | 373 | 50% | -0.00R | -0.27% |
| 2025 | 492 | 54% | +0.09R | +0.35% |
| 2026 | 308 | 47% | +0.01R | +0.24% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 27 | 56% | +0.8% | +25% | +21% | +38% |
| 2 | ████████ | 21 | 57% | -0.4% | +18% | -8% | +27% |
| 3 | ████████ | 22 | 55% | +1.5% | +26% | +34% | +26% |
| 4 | ████████ | 16 | 50% | +0.4% | +12% | +7% | +18% |
| 5 | ████████ | 19 | 74% | +3.9% | +20% | +73% | +17% |
| 6 | ████████ | 18 | 56% | +1.8% | +15% | +33% | +15% |
| 7 | ████████ | 22 | 64% | +0.8% | +8% | +17% | +15% |
| 8 | INFY free peek | 31 | 42% | -0.5% | +23% | -16% | +15% |
| 9 | ████████ | 31 | 61% | +2.5% | +16% | +76% | +14% |
| 10 | ████████ | 25 | 52% | +0.3% | +14% | +9% | +14% |
| 11 | ████████ | 25 | 44% | -1.2% | +8% | -31% | +14% |
| 12 | ████████ | 19 | 21% | -4.7% | +20% | -90% | +14% |
| 13 | ████████ | 20 | 65% | +2.0% | +13% | +39% | +13% |
| 14 | ████████ | 14 | 64% | +2.7% | +17% | +38% | +13% |
| 15 | ████████ | 20 | 60% | -0.0% | +7% | +0% | +13% |
| 16 | ████████ | 21 | 52% | -1.5% | +19% | -31% | +13% |
| 17 | ████████ | 15 | 60% | +2.6% | +16% | +38% | +12% |
| 18 | ████████ | 20 | 65% | +1.1% | +11% | +22% | +12% |
| 19 | ████████ | 17 | 65% | +1.9% | +15% | +32% | +11% |
| 20 | ████████ | 27 | 56% | +0.9% | +18% | +25% | +11% |
| 21 | ████████ | 30 | 43% | -1.3% | +7% | -40% | -31% |
| 22 | ████████ | 24 | 46% | -0.6% | +15% | -15% | -27% |
| 23 | ████████ | 21 | 19% | -4.5% | +12% | -94% | -25% |
| 24 | ████████ | 17 | 29% | -1.6% | +10% | -27% | -18% |
| 25 | ████████ | 22 | 55% | +0.4% | +11% | +8% | -18% |
| 26 | ████████ | 25 | 32% | -2.6% | +7% | -66% | -17% |
| 27 | ████████ | 29 | 34% | -1.8% | +15% | -52% | -17% |
| 28 | ████████ | 21 | 33% | -2.2% | +8% | -45% | -16% |
| 29 | ████████ | 15 | 47% | +0.1% | +7% | +1% | -16% |
| 30 | ████████ | 12 | 58% | +1.0% | +23% | +12% | -16% |
You can see the numbers — see the names.
Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel.
The worst stock in this table returned -94% under these
exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 23 | 43% | -0.11R | -0.37% |
| BANKNIFTY | 27 | 59% | +0.18R | +1.60% |
Full transcript (347 words)
Backtest the following trading strategy on all current NIFTY 50 stocks: Strategy For each NIFTY 50 stock, at the end of every trading day: - If the stock's daily return is positive (Close > Previous Close) → Buy/Add 1 unit. - If the stock's daily return is negative (Close < Previous Close) → Sell/Deduct 1 unit. - If the stock's daily return is exactly 0% → No action. Important rules 1. Maintain a separate position for each of the 50 stocks. 2. Start with 0 units in every stock. 3. A position can never become negative. If a stock has 0 units and is red, do nothing rather than shorting. 4. Execute the buy/sell at the next trading day's opening price to avoid look-ahead bias. 5. Use adjusted prices wherever appropriate for splits, bonuses and other corporate actions. 6. Account for brokerage, STT, exchange charges, GST, stamp duty and slippage. Also provide results before transaction costs. 7. Rebalance/action once per stock per day according to the rule above. 8. Include dividends separately in the total-return calculation. 9. Use the NIFTY 50 constituents applicable on each historical date, rather than survivorship-biased current constituents, if historical backtesting is possible. Backtest period Test at least: - 5 years - 10 years - Maximum available period Report Calculate: - Initial capital - Final portfolio value - CAGR - Absolute return - XIRR, if applicable - Maximum drawdown - Sharpe ratio - Sortino ratio - Volatility - Number of trades - Average daily turnover - Transaction costs - Dividend income - Percentage of profitable trades - Comparison with NIFTY 50 TRI - Comparison with a simple buy-and-hold NIFTY 50 strategy Also show: 1. Year-wise returns 2. Portfolio equity curve 3. Drawdown curve 4. Returns by individual NIFTY 50 stock 5. Number of units held in each stock over time 6. Best and worst performing stocks 7. Whether the strategy actually creates alpha after transaction costs. Finally, explain why the strategy works or fails, particularly whether buying stocks after green days and selling after red days creates momentum, mean-reversion, or merely excessive turnover.
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