Your idea: Backtest Strategy: 1M 144/500 EMA Timeframe: 1-minute Fast EMA: 144 Sl…
One-time — gone on refresh. Copy it and paste as a YouTube comment.
Why 3.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.23R across 337 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.0 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 31% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -27% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: EMA 144/500 crossover on 1-minute timeframe with 1R stop-loss and 2R target. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 337 trades, win 31%, payoff 3.01, expectancy +0.23R/trade (avg +1.33%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (67% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-08-17 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -17% | +16% | +31% | +12% | +10% | -4% | +26% | -4% | -1% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 60 | 3% | -0.95R | -6.16% |
| 2019 | 56 | 39% | +0.45R | +2.47% |
| 2020 | 67 | 49% | +1.28R | +8.41% |
| 2021 | 48 | 35% | +0.02R | +0.04% |
| 2022 | 21 | 33% | +0.24R | +2.36% |
| 2023 | 31 | 16% | +0.04R | -0.94% |
| 2024 | 28 | 39% | +0.90R | +5.25% |
| 2025 | 17 | 12% | -0.50R | -2.73% |
| 2026 | 9 | 44% | -0.12R | -0.64% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 152 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 3 | 67% | +3.1% | +12% | +9% | +12% |
| 2 | ████████ | 4 | 50% | +1.6% | +10% | +6% | +8% |
| 3 | ████████ | 2 | 100% | +4.8% | +6% | +10% | +6% |
| 4 | ████████ | 2 | 100% | +39.4% | +51% | +79% | +0% |
| 5 | ████████ | 2 | 100% | +34.7% | +53% | +69% | +0% |
| 6 | ████████ | 2 | 50% | +30.6% | +71% | +61% | +0% |
| 7 | ████████ | 3 | 67% | +18.9% | +41% | +57% | +0% |
| 8 | APLAPOLLO free peek | 2 | 50% | +26.4% | +59% | +53% | +0% |
| 9 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +49.7% | +50% | +50% | +0% |
| 10 | ████████ | 2 | 50% | +24.3% | +55% | +49% | +0% |
| 11 | ████████ | 2 | 50% | +19.9% | +48% | +40% | +0% |
| 12 | ████████ | 2 | 50% | +17.2% | +44% | +34% | +0% |
| 13 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +32.7% | +33% | +33% | +0% |
| 14 | ████████ | 4 | 25% | +8.3% | +54% | +33% | +0% |
| 15 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +32.0% | +32% | +32% | +0% |
| 16 | ████████ | 3 | 67% | +10.4% | +25% | +31% | +0% |
| 17 | ████████ | 4 | 50% | +7.2% | +33% | +29% | +0% |
| 18 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +26.5% | +27% | +27% | +0% |
| 19 | ████████ | 2 | 50% | +13.4% | +34% | +27% | +0% |
| 20 | ████████ | 6 | 50% | +4.4% | +15% | +26% | +0% |
| 21 | ████████ | 1 | 0% | -8.1% | +-8% | -8% | -8% |
| 22 | ████████ | 4 | 0% | -6.2% | +-5% | -25% | -6% |
| 23 | ████████ | 3 | 33% | -4.2% | +0% | -12% | -6% |
| 24 | ████████ | 3 | 33% | -2.1% | +9% | -6% | -6% |
| 25 | ████████ | 8 | 25% | +0.3% | +31% | +2% | -4% |
| 26 | ████████ | 3 | 0% | -7.6% | +-6% | -23% | +0% |
| 27 | ████████ | 2 | 0% | -11.0% | +-9% | -22% | +0% |
| 28 | ████████ | 2 | 0% | -11.1% | +-9% | -22% | +0% |
| 29 | ████████ | 2 | 0% | -9.9% | +-7% | -20% | +0% |
| 30 | ████████ | 3 | 0% | -6.8% | +-5% | -20% | +0% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Full transcript (42 words)
💬 Trader reviews (traded this? tell others what really happened)
No reviews yet — be the first. Real experiences help other traders more than any backtest.
User opinions, not investment advice. Reviews are moderated before publishing.