Your idea: Backtest.. Stock buying and holding for 30 days.. Once stock hit 52 w…
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Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ Strong per-trade edge: +1.26R expectancy across 102 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 4.4 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 44% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 3 of 8 tested years were negative (2019, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -25% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Buy midcap/smallcap stocks after they hit 52-week high, hold for 30 days. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 102 trades, win 44%, payoff 4.42, expectancy +1.26R/trade, biggest winner +107%.
This is a genuine, highly convex momentum edge — rare but powerful: a long base under a multi-year high, then a breakout that runs. Same fat-tail family as the strongest setups we've found. Long-only and regime-dependent (carried by bull years), so size it as a convex lottery, not steady income.
Mechanically decoded and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +4% | -5% | +35% | +1% | +38% | +6% | +2% | -5% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 3 | 0% | -1.03R | -8.55% |
| 2020 | 4 | 50% | +3.39R | +26.85% |
| 2021 | 23 | 39% | +0.35R | +2.49% |
| 2022 | 11 | 45% | +0.78R | +5.94% |
| 2023 | 26 | 73% | +3.56R | +28.19% |
| 2024 | 18 | 33% | +0.68R | +5.14% |
| 2025 | 11 | 27% | -0.10R | -1.07% |
| 2026 | 6 | 17% | -0.36R | -3.17% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 82 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 3 | 100% | +33.9% | +47% | +102% | +10% |
| 2 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +106.7% | +107% | +107% | +0% |
| 3 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +77.7% | +78% | +78% | +0% |
| 4 | ████████ | 2 | 100% | +37.9% | +55% | +76% | +0% |
| 5 | ████████ | 2 | 50% | +36.2% | +81% | +72% | +0% |
| 6 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +70.1% | +70% | +70% | +0% |
| 7 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +65.1% | +65% | +65% | +0% |
| 8 | COALINDIA free peek | 1 | 100% | +58.6% | +59% | +59% | +0% |
| 9 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +58.3% | +58% | +58% | +0% |
| 10 | ████████ | 3 | 67% | +17.3% | +42% | +52% | +0% |
| 11 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +47.1% | +47% | +47% | +0% |
| 12 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +46.6% | +47% | +47% | +0% |
| 13 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +42.2% | +42% | +42% | +0% |
| 14 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +39.3% | +39% | +39% | +0% |
| 15 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +37.4% | +37% | +37% | +0% |
| 16 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +36.5% | +37% | +37% | +0% |
| 17 | ████████ | 2 | 100% | +16.0% | +23% | +32% | +0% |
| 18 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +23.1% | +23% | +23% | +0% |
| 19 | ████████ | 1 | 100% | +21.7% | +22% | +22% | +0% |
| 20 | ████████ | 2 | 50% | +10.5% | +30% | +21% | +0% |
| 21 | ████████ | 1 | 0% | -8.5% | +-9% | -9% | -9% |
| 22 | ████████ | 2 | 50% | +9.4% | +27% | +19% | -9% |
| 23 | ████████ | 2 | 50% | +27.7% | +64% | +55% | -9% |
| 24 | ████████ | 1 | 0% | -1.6% | +-2% | -2% | -2% |
| 25 | ████████ | 2 | 50% | +2.8% | +7% | +6% | -1% |
| 26 | ████████ | 2 | 0% | -8.5% | +-9% | -17% | +0% |
| 27 | ████████ | 2 | 0% | -8.5% | +-9% | -17% | +0% |
| 28 | ████████ | 2 | 0% | -7.1% | +-6% | -14% | +0% |
| 29 | ████████ | 1 | 0% | -8.5% | +-9% | -9% | +0% |
| 30 | ████████ | 1 | 0% | -8.5% | +-9% | -9% | +0% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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