Your idea: Backtest my NIFTY 50 Fibonacci Pivot Breakout option-buying strategy… — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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Your idea: Backtest my NIFTY 50 Fibonacci Pivot Breakout option-buying strategy…

💡 Described strategy
Analysed 28 Oct 2026, 03:06 PM IST
★☆☆☆☆ 1.0 / 5

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

Futures Pivot pointsFibonacci

Verdict

Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: a pivot (R1/S1) break on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 15% / target 15% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread.

1,527 trades on ₹1L: net -157.1% over 12 years (-13.1%/yr, loses money), win 49%, payoff 0.86 (avg win ₹1,103 / avg loss ₹-1,282), max drawdown -168%, worst trade ₹-5,377. 2015: ₹-6,598. 2016: ₹-8,852. 2017: ₹+2,221. 2018: ₹-3,164. 2019: ₹+54. 2020: ₹-11,958. 2021: ₹-34,551. 2022: ₹-10,902. 2023: ₹-10,460. 2024: ₹-30,388. 2025: ₹-22,635. 2026: ₹-19,837.

Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.

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Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)

YearTradesWin %Net P&L
20156245% ₹-6,598
20168248% ₹-8,852
201711356% ₹+2,221
201812252% ₹-3,164
201911053% ₹+54
202013048% ₹-11,958
202120249% ₹-34,551
202215950% ₹-10,902
202315650% ₹-10,460
202411743% ₹-30,388
202518950% ₹-22,635
20268548% ₹-19,837
Full transcript (395 words)
Backtest my NIFTY 50 Fibonacci Pivot Breakout option-buying strategy. Underlying and timeframe - NIFTY 50 index only. - Use 3-minute candles. - Calculate standard Fibonacci Pivot Points from the previous trading session's high, low and close. Entry rules Bullish setup — buy CE 1. A 3-minute candle crosses a Fibonacci pivot level from below and closes above that level. 2. The immediately following 3-minute candle must close green (close greater than open). 3. After the green confirmation candle closes, buy a NIFTY CE at the next realistically executable price. Bearish setup — buy PE 1. A 3-minute candle crosses a Fibonacci pivot level from above and closes below that level. 2. The immediately following 3-minute candle must close red (close less than open). 3. After the red confirmation candle closes, buy a NIFTY PE at the next realistically executable price. If the immediately following candle does not have the required colour, skip that setup. Do not use future information or assume fills at prices that were no longer available. Option selection - Select a NIFTY option with absolute delta approximately 0.90 at entry. - CE delta should be near +0.90 and PE delta near -0.90. - Use the nearest available strike meeting the delta criterion. - If historical delta data is unavailable, explicitly disclose the limitation and explain the strike-selection approximation used. Trade management - Target: +15 points in option premium. - Stop-loss: -15 points in option premium. - Maximum three trades per trading day. - No overnight positions; square off by the end of the trading session. - Use actual historical option-premium data, realistic execution assumptions, slippage and transaction costs. - If target and stop are both touched within a candle and the order of events is unknown, use a conservative assumption and disclose it. Backtest report Report total trades, win rate, average win, average loss, net P&L after costs, profit factor, expectancy per trade, maximum drawdown, longest losing streak, average trades per day, and results split between CE and PE trades and by year. Also report performance by Fibonacci pivot level and identify how many trades hit the target, stop-loss or session-end exit. Test the exact baseline first. Do not add indicators or filters. If the platform cannot model 3-minute candles, the confirmation sequence, delta-based strike selection or option-premium exits exactly, state which rules could not be implemented and what assumptions were substituted.

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