Your idea: Backtest my NIFTY 50 Fibonacci Pivot Breakout option-buying strategy…
One-time — gone on refresh. Copy it and paste as a YouTube comment.
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: a pivot (R1/S1) break on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 15% / target 15% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread.
1,527 trades on ₹1L: net -157.1% over 12 years (-13.1%/yr, loses money), win 49%, payoff 0.86 (avg win ₹1,103 / avg loss ₹-1,282), max drawdown -168%, worst trade ₹-5,377. 2015: ₹-6,598. 2016: ₹-8,852. 2017: ₹+2,221. 2018: ₹-3,164. 2019: ₹+54. 2020: ₹-11,958. 2021: ₹-34,551. 2022: ₹-10,902. 2023: ₹-10,460. 2024: ₹-30,388. 2025: ₹-22,635. 2026: ₹-19,837.
Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 62 | 45% | ₹-6,598 |
| 2016 | 82 | 48% | ₹-8,852 |
| 2017 | 113 | 56% | ₹+2,221 |
| 2018 | 122 | 52% | ₹-3,164 |
| 2019 | 110 | 53% | ₹+54 |
| 2020 | 130 | 48% | ₹-11,958 |
| 2021 | 202 | 49% | ₹-34,551 |
| 2022 | 159 | 50% | ₹-10,902 |
| 2023 | 156 | 50% | ₹-10,460 |
| 2024 | 117 | 43% | ₹-30,388 |
| 2025 | 189 | 50% | ₹-22,635 |
| 2026 | 85 | 48% | ₹-19,837 |
Full transcript (395 words)
💬 Trader reviews (traded this? tell others what really happened)
No reviews yet — be the first. Real experiences help other traders more than any backtest.
User opinions, not investment advice. Reviews are moderated before publishing.