Your idea: Backtest a Gold (XAUUSD) trading strategy on the 1-hour timeframe. IN…
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Why 2.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.21R across 905 trades
- ✕ Only 31% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 6 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2021, 2022) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -30% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: 50/200 EMA crossover on Gold (XAUUSD) 1-hour timeframe with fixed TP/SL. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 905 trades, win 31%, payoff 2.86, expectancy +0.21R/trade (avg +1.12%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Regime-dependent — positive in only 33% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -15% | +17% | +15% | +9% | -17% | +15% | +6% | +2% | +0% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 97 | 10% | -0.79R | -5.22% |
| 2019 | 133 | 29% | -0.04R | -0.53% |
| 2020 | 152 | 45% | +1.12R | +8.01% |
| 2021 | 30 | 30% | -0.08R | -0.99% |
| 2022 | 129 | 24% | -0.09R | -0.74% |
| 2023 | 122 | 44% | +0.93R | +3.93% |
| 2024 | 57 | 30% | +0.39R | +2.26% |
| 2025 | 134 | 31% | -0.04R | -0.26% |
| 2026 | 51 | 25% | -0.24R | -1.45% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 6 | 17% | -1.5% | +19% | -9% | +19% |
| 2 | ████████ | 4 | 75% | +9.0% | +24% | +36% | +18% |
| 3 | ████████ | 5 | 60% | +11.7% | +34% | +59% | +17% |
| 4 | ████████ | 4 | 25% | -0.5% | +15% | -2% | +15% |
| 5 | ████████ | 7 | 43% | +6.6% | +53% | +46% | +12% |
| 6 | ████████ | 4 | 50% | +1.9% | +18% | +8% | +11% |
| 7 | ████████ | 3 | 33% | +1.7% | +17% | +5% | +11% |
| 8 | FORTIS free peek | 8 | 25% | -1.1% | +16% | -8% | +10% |
| 9 | ████████ | 8 | 50% | +12.2% | +75% | +97% | +8% |
| 10 | ████████ | 6 | 50% | +3.4% | +29% | +20% | +4% |
| 11 | ████████ | 2 | 50% | -2.1% | +1% | -4% | +1% |
| 12 | ████████ | 7 | 14% | -5.1% | +1% | -36% | +1% |
| 13 | ████████ | 5 | 100% | +23.4% | +78% | +117% | +0% |
| 14 | ████████ | 4 | 100% | +20.0% | +45% | +80% | +0% |
| 15 | ████████ | 5 | 80% | +15.6% | +49% | +78% | +0% |
| 16 | ████████ | 7 | 57% | +10.0% | +57% | +70% | +0% |
| 17 | ████████ | 7 | 43% | +9.7% | +58% | +68% | +0% |
| 18 | ████████ | 5 | 20% | +12.2% | +97% | +61% | +0% |
| 19 | ████████ | 4 | 50% | +15.0% | +50% | +60% | +0% |
| 20 | ████████ | 4 | 50% | +13.9% | +54% | +56% | +0% |
| 21 | ████████ | 10 | 20% | -1.4% | +19% | -14% | -20% |
| 22 | ████████ | 6 | 17% | -1.3% | +25% | -8% | -15% |
| 23 | ████████ | 7 | 29% | +0.2% | +18% | +2% | -12% |
| 24 | ████████ | 5 | 40% | +1.3% | +23% | +7% | -12% |
| 25 | ████████ | 7 | 0% | -4.7% | +-4% | -33% | -11% |
| 26 | ████████ | 4 | 50% | +13.9% | +49% | +55% | -10% |
| 27 | ████████ | 7 | 0% | -5.5% | +-4% | -39% | -9% |
| 28 | ████████ | 8 | 50% | +7.3% | +42% | +59% | -8% |
| 29 | ████████ | 3 | 0% | -6.4% | +-6% | -19% | -7% |
| 30 | ████████ | 8 | 12% | -1.3% | +23% | -10% | -7% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 9 | 56% | +1.08R | +1.95% |
| BANKNIFTY | 8 | 62% | +1.61R | +6.37% |
Full transcript (142 words)
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