Your idea: Apply supertrend(9,2) on the stock on the weekly chart . and enter whe…
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Why 3.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.20R across 6,984 trades
- ✕ Only 38% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 4 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2024, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -26% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
- ✕ Most of the big total return is compounding in a rising market (beta) — the per-trade edge above is what would survive a different regime
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Weekly Supertrend(9,2) trend-following strategy: buy on green signal flip, exit on red flip. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 6,984 trades, win 38%, payoff 2.31, expectancy +0.20R/trade (avg +1.01%/trade).
This is a real edge. Reasonably consistent (56% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +9% | +2% | +47% | +26% | -4% | +23% | +7% | -1% | -6% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 391 | 37% | -0.08R | -0.74% |
| 2019 | 783 | 38% | +0.04R | +0.06% |
| 2020 | 783 | 48% | +0.66R | +5.17% |
| 2021 | 841 | 42% | +0.40R | +2.25% |
| 2022 | 925 | 36% | +0.04R | +0.04% |
| 2023 | 888 | 46% | +0.72R | +3.12% |
| 2024 | 939 | 31% | -0.03R | -0.44% |
| 2025 | 1012 | 31% | -0.04R | -0.60% |
| 2026 | 422 | 29% | -0.19R | -0.97% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 44 | 41% | +13.8% | +209% | +606% | +57% |
| 2 | ████████ | 41 | 37% | +0.8% | +44% | +31% | +44% |
| 3 | ████████ | 42 | 38% | +3.0% | +94% | +125% | +36% |
| 4 | ████████ | 55 | 44% | +1.4% | +46% | +78% | +34% |
| 5 | ████████ | 23 | 30% | +3.4% | +55% | +78% | +30% |
| 6 | ████████ | 20 | 15% | -2.9% | +16% | -57% | +30% |
| 7 | ████████ | 46 | 46% | +9.5% | +77% | +435% | +29% |
| 8 | OFSS free peek | 42 | 31% | +1.8% | +88% | +76% | +29% |
| 9 | ████████ | 38 | 45% | +4.2% | +58% | +161% | +26% |
| 10 | ████████ | 46 | 39% | +7.1% | +113% | +327% | +22% |
| 11 | ████████ | 53 | 47% | +6.5% | +136% | +345% | +20% |
| 12 | ████████ | 42 | 48% | +3.4% | +42% | +142% | +18% |
| 13 | ████████ | 48 | 44% | +2.3% | +50% | +109% | +18% |
| 14 | ████████ | 52 | 33% | +0.7% | +58% | +36% | +17% |
| 15 | ████████ | 45 | 51% | +3.2% | +43% | +143% | +16% |
| 16 | ████████ | 48 | 33% | +0.7% | +27% | +34% | +16% |
| 17 | ████████ | 51 | 37% | +2.2% | +82% | +111% | +13% |
| 18 | ████████ | 33 | 48% | +1.9% | +52% | +62% | +13% |
| 19 | ████████ | 38 | 42% | +1.0% | +21% | +40% | +13% |
| 20 | ████████ | 41 | 32% | -0.0% | +36% | +0% | +13% |
| 21 | ████████ | 48 | 31% | +0.5% | +38% | +25% | -29% |
| 22 | ████████ | 49 | 41% | +4.4% | +65% | +214% | -29% |
| 23 | ████████ | 52 | 29% | +0.0% | +50% | +0% | -28% |
| 24 | ████████ | 53 | 32% | -0.7% | +26% | -38% | -23% |
| 25 | ████████ | 49 | 31% | +1.3% | +45% | +63% | -23% |
| 26 | ████████ | 45 | 38% | +1.7% | +26% | +74% | -21% |
| 27 | ████████ | 35 | 34% | +0.7% | +36% | +23% | -19% |
| 28 | ████████ | 26 | 31% | +1.4% | +60% | +36% | -19% |
| 29 | ████████ | 52 | 27% | -1.2% | +17% | -64% | -18% |
| 30 | ████████ | 44 | 23% | -0.3% | +43% | -13% | -18% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 76 | 42% | +0.28R | +0.53% |
| BANKNIFTY | 69 | 42% | +0.28R | +0.74% |
Full transcript (26 words)
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