Your idea: 9 15 ema crossover then bounce candle by the trade room
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Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ Strong per-trade edge: +0.33R expectancy across 3,247 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.4 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 31% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2022, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -23% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. Detected: MA crossover. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 3,247 trades, win 31%, payoff 3.41, expectancy +0.33R/trade (avg +1.66%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (67% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-08-24 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0% | -4% | +12% | +16% | -4% | +26% | +9% | -10% | +4% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 249 | 20% | -0.43R | -2.88% |
| 2019 | 427 | 26% | +0.03R | +0.11% |
| 2020 | 389 | 43% | +1.07R | +8.49% |
| 2021 | 312 | 34% | +0.22R | +0.95% |
| 2022 | 475 | 27% | -0.03R | -0.40% |
| 2023 | 415 | 49% | +1.71R | +7.00% |
| 2024 | 340 | 24% | +0.17R | +0.57% |
| 2025 | 431 | 29% | +0.02R | -0.35% |
| 2026 | 209 | 20% | -0.32R | -1.44% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 20 | 40% | +3.1% | +40% | +63% | +40% |
| 2 | ████████ | 20 | 55% | +14.6% | +68% | +291% | +37% |
| 3 | ████████ | 16 | 44% | +8.4% | +45% | +135% | +37% |
| 4 | ████████ | 15 | 33% | +4.8% | +45% | +72% | +34% |
| 5 | ████████ | 18 | 44% | +8.8% | +59% | +158% | +33% |
| 6 | ████████ | 20 | 30% | +5.4% | +91% | +108% | +32% |
| 7 | ████████ | 20 | 20% | +1.4% | +41% | +29% | +32% |
| 8 | ADANIGREEN free peek | 20 | 35% | +18.6% | +170% | +372% | +28% |
| 9 | ████████ | 20 | 40% | +13.0% | +224% | +259% | +23% |
| 10 | ████████ | 16 | 62% | +12.3% | +66% | +196% | +17% |
| 11 | ████████ | 18 | 28% | +4.5% | +70% | +81% | +17% |
| 12 | ████████ | 10 | 50% | +8.0% | +31% | +80% | +17% |
| 13 | ████████ | 22 | 41% | +3.3% | +44% | +73% | +17% |
| 14 | ████████ | 8 | 12% | -3.8% | +17% | -30% | +11% |
| 15 | ████████ | 23 | 35% | +3.4% | +38% | +79% | +10% |
| 16 | ████████ | 23 | 26% | +0.8% | +48% | +18% | +10% |
| 17 | ████████ | 17 | 41% | +5.0% | +59% | +85% | +9% |
| 18 | ████████ | 22 | 32% | +2.7% | +56% | +59% | +8% |
| 19 | ████████ | 25 | 32% | -1.4% | +15% | -34% | +8% |
| 20 | ████████ | 22 | 27% | +6.3% | +127% | +139% | +7% |
| 21 | ████████ | 18 | 28% | +3.7% | +64% | +66% | -19% |
| 22 | ████████ | 21 | 29% | -1.1% | +38% | -24% | -18% |
| 23 | ████████ | 20 | 45% | +4.8% | +44% | +96% | -18% |
| 24 | ████████ | 26 | 23% | +0.9% | +51% | +25% | -17% |
| 25 | ████████ | 30 | 23% | -0.5% | +27% | -15% | -16% |
| 26 | ████████ | 18 | 39% | +2.3% | +25% | +41% | -16% |
| 27 | ████████ | 22 | 27% | +3.9% | +72% | +85% | -16% |
| 28 | ████████ | 25 | 24% | -1.8% | +13% | -45% | -15% |
| 29 | ████████ | 22 | 23% | -1.0% | +29% | -23% | -15% |
| 30 | ████████ | 20 | 40% | +0.5% | +25% | +10% | -15% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 24 | 46% | +0.71R | +0.86% |
| BANKNIFTY | 24 | 62% | +1.28R | +3.76% |
Full transcript (11 words)
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