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Your idea: 5EMA Sell Strategy: Rules in Plain English Chart setup Instrument: N…
💡 Described strategy
Analysed 30 Oct 2026, 07:13 PM IST
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Why 1.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✕ Roughly ZERO per-trade edge (+0.00R) — real costs eat whatever is there
- ✕ Only 30% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 6 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2022, 2024) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -78% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. Detected: 5-EMA trend-following. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 38,199 trades, win 30%, payoff 2.36, expectancy +0.00R/trade (avg -0.21%/trade).
This is essentially breakeven. Regime-dependent — positive in only 33% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
Return-74.2%
CAGR-15.7%
Max drawdown-77.5%
Trades1894 · 385 won
₹200,000 → ₹51,560
· 2018-07-09 → 2026-06-08
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -22% | -43% | +6% | +61% | -32% | -18% | -3% | -33% | -7% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2224 | 26% | -0.05R | -0.59% |
| 2019 | 4703 | 28% | -0.04R | -0.51% |
| 2020 | 4663 | 35% | +0.10R | +0.54% |
| 2021 | 4759 | 32% | +0.07R | +0.18% |
| 2022 | 4794 | 29% | -0.03R | -0.46% |
| 2023 | 4881 | 32% | +0.07R | +0.04% |
| 2024 | 4929 | 30% | -0.01R | -0.30% |
| 2025 | 5234 | 28% | -0.06R | -0.57% |
| 2026 | 2012 | 26% | -0.09R | -0.60% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 235 | 28% | +2.8% | +111% | +652% | +32% |
| 2 | ████████ | 235 | 30% | +0.8% | +66% | +184% | +32% |
| 3 | ████████ | 239 | 29% | +0.2% | +59% | +48% | +29% |
| 4 | ████████ | 245 | 29% | +1.2% | +81% | +300% | +28% |
| 5 | ████████ | 213 | 38% | +2.5% | +171% | +539% | +26% |
| 6 | ████████ | 247 | 26% | +1.1% | +90% | +278% | +21% |
| 7 | ████████ | 219 | 31% | +0.4% | +46% | +89% | +20% |
| 8 | KEI free peek | 250 | 33% | +0.3% | +33% | +64% | +20% |
| 9 | ████████ | 227 | 29% | -0.0% | +19% | -9% | +20% |
| 10 | ████████ | 81 | 28% | -0.8% | +14% | -68% | +18% |
| 11 | ████████ | 268 | 30% | -0.3% | +29% | -68% | +17% |
| 12 | ████████ | 213 | 38% | +0.7% | +37% | +142% | +15% |
| 13 | ████████ | 238 | 29% | +0.4% | +44% | +89% | +15% |
| 14 | ████████ | 258 | 28% | -0.1% | +45% | -37% | +15% |
| 15 | ████████ | 246 | 26% | -0.1% | +24% | -26% | +14% |
| 16 | ████████ | 261 | 26% | -0.5% | +23% | -122% | +14% |
| 17 | ████████ | 241 | 27% | +0.1% | +27% | +26% | +11% |
| 18 | ████████ | 234 | 26% | -0.1% | +26% | -19% | +11% |
| 19 | ████████ | 215 | 30% | +0.1% | +42% | +24% | +10% |
| 20 | ████████ | 274 | 24% | -0.9% | +17% | -246% | +10% |
| 21 | ████████ | 255 | 25% | -0.6% | +17% | -144% | -52% |
| 22 | ████████ | 250 | 30% | -0.2% | +17% | -58% | -45% |
| 23 | ████████ | 237 | 31% | -0.1% | +40% | -15% | -36% |
| 24 | ████████ | 266 | 24% | -0.5% | +19% | -131% | -31% |
| 25 | ████████ | 272 | 24% | -0.5% | +31% | -147% | -30% |
| 26 | ████████ | 251 | 27% | -0.5% | +17% | -133% | -29% |
| 27 | ████████ | 238 | 29% | -0.2% | +30% | -41% | -29% |
| 28 | ████████ | 229 | 35% | +0.7% | +31% | +156% | -28% |
| 29 | ████████ | 249 | 24% | -0.5% | +29% | -125% | -27% |
| 30 | ████████ | 253 | 27% | -0.4% | +39% | -89% | -27% |
You can see the numbers — see the names.
Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel.
The worst stock in this table returned -246% under these
exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 313 | 33% | -0.03R | -0.36% |
| BANKNIFTY | 337 | 27% | -0.05R | -0.41% |
Full transcript (333 words)
5EMA Sell Strategy: Rules in Plain English Chart setup Instrument: NIFTY 50 spot (or Nifty futures). Timeframe: 5 minutes. Indicator: EMA with length 5, applied on close. Finding the alert candle 4. Look at the candle that just closed. This is your candidate alert candle. 5. The entire candle must sit above the EMA line. Its low must be above the EMA value, so it does not touch the line. 6. Mark the low of this candle. This is your entry level. Entry trigger 7. Wait for the next candle to form. 8. If that candle trades below the alert candle’s low, you sell (short) at the alert candle’s low. 9. It should be a red candle. If price breaks the low and the candle closes green, skip the trade. 10. If the next candle does not break the low, the setup is cancelled. Look for a fresh alert candle. Stop loss 11. Place the stop loss at the alert candle’s high. 12. If the alert candle is large (high minus low is more than 25 points), cap the stop loss at 25 points above your entry. Target and exit 13. Target is 2 times your risk. Example: SL is 20 points, so target is 40 points below entry. 14. If neither SL nor target is hit, close the trade at 3:15 PM. 15. Never hold the trade overnight. Daily limits 16. Take a maximum of 3 trades per day. 17. No new entries after 2:30 PM. 18. Only one trade open at a time. A+ grading (extra confirmations) 19. Confirmation 1, near resistance: the alert candle’s high is close to a resistance zone (for example, within 50 points of the recent swing high or your marked zone). 20. Confirmation 2, green run: the last 3 candles, including the alert candle, are all strong green candles. This suggests the move is stretched and a reversal is likely. 21. A+ setup = both confirmations present. 22. Normal setup = only one confirmation, or none.
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