Your idea: 3 min candle starting at 10.29 on Nifty or sensex. By at the money ce…
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Verdict
Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: an opening-range breakout on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 7% / target 20% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread.
1,945 trades on ₹1L: net -248.4% over 12 years (-20.7%/yr, loses money), win 25%, payoff 2.26 (avg win ₹1,466 / avg loss ₹-649), max drawdown -255%, worst trade ₹-2,548. 2015: ₹-864. 2016: ₹-12,241. 2017: ₹-16,702. 2018: ₹-13,998. 2019: ₹+4,125. 2020: ₹-17,236. 2021: ₹-30,200. 2022: ₹-43,314. 2023: ₹-18,755. 2024: ₹-8,560. 2025: ₹-45,028. 2026: ₹-45,671.
Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 67 | 34% | ₹-864 |
| 2016 | 126 | 25% | ₹-12,241 |
| 2017 | 153 | 25% | ₹-16,702 |
| 2018 | 146 | 25% | ₹-13,998 |
| 2019 | 148 | 32% | ₹+4,125 |
| 2020 | 164 | 23% | ₹-17,236 |
| 2021 | 247 | 24% | ₹-30,200 |
| 2022 | 194 | 22% | ₹-43,314 |
| 2023 | 190 | 23% | ₹-18,755 |
| 2024 | 160 | 26% | ₹-8,560 |
| 2025 | 244 | 24% | ₹-45,028 |
| 2026 | 106 | 19% | ₹-45,671 |
Full transcript (24 words)
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