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Your idea: 3 EMA Reversal Trading Strategy – 5-Minute Timeframe 1. Strategy Over…
💡 Described strategy
Analysed 09 Oct 2026, 06:49 PM IST
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Why 1.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✕ Roughly ZERO per-trade edge (-0.01R) — real costs eat whatever is there
- ✕ Only 31% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 6 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2022, 2024) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -94% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. Detected: 3-EMA trend-following. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 48,184 trades, win 31%, payoff 2.12, expectancy -0.01R/trade (avg -0.30%/trade).
This is essentially breakeven. Regime-dependent — positive in only 33% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-10-12 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
Return-94.1%
CAGR-30.0%
Max drawdown-94.2%
Trades2134 · 372 won
₹200,000 → ₹11,879
· 2018-07-09 → 2026-06-08
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -18% | -45% | -37% | +63% | -34% | -19% | -33% | -40% | -42% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2823 | 27% | -0.06R | -0.65% |
| 2019 | 5887 | 29% | -0.05R | -0.55% |
| 2020 | 5889 | 35% | +0.07R | +0.22% |
| 2021 | 6050 | 33% | +0.04R | +0.02% |
| 2022 | 6071 | 31% | -0.04R | -0.49% |
| 2023 | 6189 | 33% | +0.03R | -0.12% |
| 2024 | 6270 | 30% | -0.02R | -0.35% |
| 2025 | 6421 | 30% | -0.05R | -0.52% |
| 2026 | 2584 | 26% | -0.09R | -0.66% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 301 | 30% | +1.1% | +77% | +328% | +35% |
| 2 | ████████ | 284 | 35% | +2.4% | +107% | +669% | +34% |
| 3 | ████████ | 297 | 33% | +0.8% | +45% | +231% | +30% |
| 4 | ████████ | 304 | 31% | +1.1% | +69% | +332% | +23% |
| 5 | ████████ | 310 | 32% | +0.0% | +40% | +2% | +20% |
| 6 | ████████ | 293 | 27% | -0.2% | +20% | -63% | +19% |
| 7 | ████████ | 308 | 29% | -0.3% | +29% | -94% | +15% |
| 8 | KEI free peek | 305 | 35% | +0.2% | +39% | +50% | +14% |
| 9 | ████████ | 309 | 27% | -0.2% | +25% | -67% | +14% |
| 10 | ████████ | 333 | 25% | -0.8% | +17% | -282% | +13% |
| 11 | ████████ | 290 | 27% | -0.1% | +28% | -21% | +12% |
| 12 | ████████ | 310 | 29% | -0.1% | +24% | -31% | +12% |
| 13 | ████████ | 93 | 31% | -0.5% | +13% | -49% | +12% |
| 14 | ████████ | 271 | 38% | +1.9% | +150% | +505% | +11% |
| 15 | ████████ | 275 | 36% | +0.4% | +30% | +99% | +10% |
| 16 | ████████ | 293 | 32% | -0.2% | +30% | -52% | +10% |
| 17 | ████████ | 286 | 28% | -0.4% | +15% | -123% | +10% |
| 18 | ████████ | 327 | 23% | -0.6% | +19% | -195% | +9% |
| 19 | ████████ | 303 | 31% | -0.0% | +26% | -3% | +7% |
| 20 | ████████ | 316 | 30% | -0.3% | +29% | -94% | +6% |
| 21 | ████████ | 328 | 27% | -0.6% | +24% | -190% | -43% |
| 22 | ████████ | 319 | 29% | -0.4% | +18% | -120% | -38% |
| 23 | ████████ | 306 | 25% | -0.6% | +11% | -179% | -36% |
| 24 | ████████ | 341 | 26% | -0.5% | +19% | -185% | -35% |
| 25 | ████████ | 320 | 32% | -0.4% | +15% | -142% | -34% |
| 26 | ████████ | 317 | 28% | -0.2% | +25% | -74% | -34% |
| 27 | ████████ | 304 | 29% | -0.2% | +49% | -58% | -32% |
| 28 | ████████ | 310 | 26% | -0.3% | +25% | -89% | -31% |
| 29 | ████████ | 326 | 25% | -0.5% | +18% | -174% | -30% |
| 30 | ████████ | 307 | 29% | -0.3% | +27% | -91% | -30% |
You can see the numbers — see the names.
Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel.
The worst stock in this table returned -282% under these
exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 398 | 31% | -0.07R | -0.47% |
| BANKNIFTY | 411 | 31% | -0.05R | -0.42% |
Full transcript (249 words)
3 EMA Reversal Trading Strategy – 5-Minute Timeframe 1. Strategy Overview My trading strategy is based on the 3-period Exponential Moving Average (3 EMA), applied to the 5-minute Nifty 50 chart. The objective is to identify potential reversal opportunities when a candle moves without touching the 3 EMA and enter a trade when the price breaks the opposite end of that candle. 2. Sell Setup – Bearish Reversal 1. Identify a bullish candle that does not touch the 3 EMA. 2. Mark the low of that candle. 3. Wait for the price to break below the low of the identified candle. 4. Enter a sell trade when the low is broken. 5. Set a predefined stop-loss and target according to the trading plan. 3. Buy Setup – Bullish Reversal 1. Identify a bearish candle that does not touch the 3 EMA. 2. Mark the high of that candle. 3. Wait for the price to break above the high of the identified candle. 4. Enter a buy trade when the high is broken. 5. Set a predefined stop-loss and target according to the trading plan. 4. Trading Parameters - Instrument: Nifty 50 - Timeframe: 5-minute chart - Indicator: 3-period EMA - Stop-loss: 20 points - Target: 45 points - Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2.25 5. Risk Management and Discipline - Wait for a valid candle formation before considering an entry. - Do not enter before the relevant high or low is broken. - Avoid impulsive trades and follow the predefined risk-management rules.
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