Your idea: 20 sma, 9 sma and 5 sma are rising. Price candle low below 20 sma, can…
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Why 3.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.22R across 8,754 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.4 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 31% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -30% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Multiple moving averages (5/9/20 SMA) in uptrend with price touching and closing above the fast MA, forming a mean-reversion dip-buy within an MA uptrend. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 8,754 trades, win 31%, payoff 3.36, expectancy +0.22R/trade (avg +1.15%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (67% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-08-26 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2% | -13% | +62% | +25% | -15% | +48% | +0% | -5% | -2% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 510 | 29% | -0.11R | -0.92% |
| 2019 | 1128 | 29% | +0.04R | +0.04% |
| 2020 | 983 | 41% | +0.70R | +5.44% |
| 2021 | 1050 | 34% | +0.34R | +1.95% |
| 2022 | 1108 | 31% | +0.09R | +0.35% |
| 2023 | 1099 | 38% | +0.81R | +3.39% |
| 2024 | 1120 | 28% | +0.07R | +0.22% |
| 2025 | 1267 | 25% | -0.05R | -0.65% |
| 2026 | 489 | 24% | -0.19R | -0.93% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 48 | 35% | +11.7% | +162% | +563% | +47% |
| 2 | ████████ | 59 | 29% | +0.8% | +46% | +49% | +39% |
| 3 | ████████ | 44 | 36% | +4.5% | +92% | +196% | +38% |
| 4 | ████████ | 49 | 37% | +10.2% | +168% | +501% | +37% |
| 5 | ████████ | 61 | 33% | +4.8% | +130% | +294% | +34% |
| 6 | ████████ | 53 | 34% | +3.4% | +86% | +179% | +33% |
| 7 | ████████ | 22 | 23% | -2.1% | +22% | -45% | +30% |
| 8 | BHEL free peek | 48 | 35% | +4.1% | +77% | +199% | +28% |
| 9 | ████████ | 50 | 46% | +9.7% | +155% | +485% | +26% |
| 10 | ████████ | 39 | 51% | +5.7% | +55% | +221% | +20% |
| 11 | ████████ | 57 | 30% | +2.0% | +72% | +115% | +17% |
| 12 | ████████ | 39 | 23% | +1.2% | +55% | +49% | +17% |
| 13 | ████████ | 56 | 32% | +2.5% | +62% | +143% | +16% |
| 14 | ████████ | 51 | 37% | +1.9% | +56% | +98% | +16% |
| 15 | ████████ | 57 | 37% | +0.8% | +39% | +46% | +15% |
| 16 | ████████ | 60 | 30% | +1.5% | +71% | +93% | +13% |
| 17 | ████████ | 57 | 30% | +1.4% | +64% | +82% | +13% |
| 18 | ████████ | 62 | 39% | +2.1% | +40% | +128% | +12% |
| 19 | ████████ | 50 | 28% | +1.1% | +52% | +56% | +12% |
| 20 | ████████ | 66 | 26% | -0.9% | +27% | -57% | +12% |
| 21 | ████████ | 54 | 30% | +0.8% | +46% | +46% | -29% |
| 22 | ████████ | 30 | 27% | +1.6% | +60% | +49% | -25% |
| 23 | ████████ | 58 | 21% | -0.0% | +47% | -1% | -23% |
| 24 | ████████ | 50 | 32% | +0.9% | +33% | +44% | -21% |
| 25 | ████████ | 52 | 35% | +1.8% | +38% | +93% | -21% |
| 26 | ████████ | 63 | 25% | -0.4% | +33% | -24% | -20% |
| 27 | ████████ | 53 | 21% | +0.2% | +37% | +13% | -19% |
| 28 | ████████ | 56 | 27% | +0.4% | +29% | +20% | -19% |
| 29 | ████████ | 66 | 21% | -0.2% | +32% | -16% | -18% |
| 30 | ████████ | 55 | 27% | +2.3% | +44% | +124% | -18% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 75 | 33% | +0.30R | +0.50% |
| BANKNIFTY | 72 | 38% | +0.29R | +0.75% |
Full transcript (27 words)
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