Your idea: 1h tf. Commodity channel index. Buy when signal cross ema from below…
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Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ Strong per-trade edge: +0.32R expectancy across 4,155 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.7 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 30% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 4 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2022, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: EMA crossover strategy on 1h timeframe with CCI as fast momentum signal, entry on upward cross, exit on downward cross. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 4,155 trades, win 30%, payoff 3.68, expectancy +0.32R/trade (avg +1.65%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (56% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-10-22 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +7% | +14% | +8% | +31% | -6% | +14% | +11% | -5% | -2% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 292 | 20% | -0.36R | -2.46% |
| 2019 | 549 | 27% | +0.09R | +0.48% |
| 2020 | 483 | 42% | +1.12R | +8.82% |
| 2021 | 429 | 33% | +0.27R | +1.42% |
| 2022 | 592 | 24% | -0.05R | -0.58% |
| 2023 | 507 | 45% | +1.49R | +6.14% |
| 2024 | 445 | 24% | +0.22R | +0.95% |
| 2025 | 585 | 27% | -0.03R | -0.53% |
| 2026 | 273 | 19% | -0.33R | -1.62% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 27 | 30% | +2.0% | +47% | +53% | +42% |
| 2 | ████████ | 23 | 43% | +10.4% | +61% | +240% | +38% |
| 3 | ████████ | 28 | 21% | +0.7% | +39% | +20% | +37% |
| 4 | ████████ | 20 | 35% | +6.0% | +44% | +120% | +34% |
| 5 | ████████ | 23 | 48% | +11.7% | +54% | +269% | +33% |
| 6 | ████████ | 27 | 44% | +8.0% | +68% | +215% | +32% |
| 7 | ████████ | 27 | 33% | +12.9% | +162% | +348% | +28% |
| 8 | CGPOWER free peek | 23 | 35% | +13.2% | +255% | +304% | +23% |
| 9 | ████████ | 28 | 29% | +5.1% | +94% | +144% | +19% |
| 10 | ████████ | 14 | 36% | +5.6% | +38% | +78% | +18% |
| 11 | ████████ | 23 | 48% | +6.6% | +67% | +152% | +16% |
| 12 | ████████ | 23 | 48% | +3.3% | +35% | +77% | +16% |
| 13 | ████████ | 24 | 33% | +5.9% | +71% | +142% | +13% |
| 14 | ████████ | 11 | 9% | -3.7% | +17% | -40% | +12% |
| 15 | ████████ | 28 | 25% | +0.9% | +56% | +25% | +11% |
| 16 | ████████ | 26 | 38% | +4.4% | +43% | +115% | +10% |
| 17 | ████████ | 27 | 30% | +1.8% | +59% | +48% | +10% |
| 18 | ████████ | 25 | 28% | +0.7% | +33% | +18% | +9% |
| 19 | ████████ | 28 | 32% | +5.4% | +114% | +151% | +8% |
| 20 | ████████ | 30 | 33% | -0.2% | +15% | -6% | +8% |
| 21 | ████████ | 33 | 21% | -1.2% | +30% | -38% | -23% |
| 22 | ████████ | 27 | 22% | +0.9% | +50% | +24% | -23% |
| 23 | ████████ | 32 | 19% | +0.3% | +43% | +8% | -20% |
| 24 | ████████ | 28 | 32% | +1.2% | +29% | +34% | -18% |
| 25 | ████████ | 33 | 27% | +1.5% | +30% | +50% | -17% |
| 26 | ████████ | 31 | 29% | +2.9% | +67% | +90% | -17% |
| 27 | ████████ | 29 | 28% | +0.2% | +29% | +6% | -16% |
| 28 | ████████ | 13 | 23% | +1.9% | +57% | +25% | -16% |
| 29 | ████████ | 6 | 33% | +4.5% | +44% | +27% | -16% |
| 30 | ████████ | 33 | 27% | -1.7% | +14% | -57% | -15% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 31 | 42% | +0.47R | +0.88% |
| BANKNIFTY | 31 | 52% | +0.68R | +2.26% |
Full transcript (17 words)
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