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Your idea: 1. Strategy Overview This strategy is based on the distance between t…
💡 Described strategy
Analysed 19 Oct 2026, 10:08 PM IST
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Heads up: this strategy was originally created for
commodities, not Indian equities.
We applied the exact same logic to Indian stocks & indices and the backtest completed successfully —
every result below is on Indian market data.
Why 1.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✕ Roughly ZERO per-trade edge (+0.01R) — real costs eat whatever is there
- ✕ Only 35% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 5 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2022, 2025) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -84% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Mean-reversion breakout: price rebounds from MA, signal candle closes beyond MA, entry on breakout of signal candle high/low with 50% ATR stop and 1:5 RR target on XAUUSD. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 46,731 trades, win 35%, payoff 1.86, expectancy +0.01R/trade (avg -0.18%/trade).
This is essentially breakeven. Regime-dependent — positive in only 33% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-10-20 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
Return-82.6%
CAGR-19.8%
Max drawdown-84.0%
Trades1514 · 398 won
₹200,000 → ₹34,795
· 2018-07-09 → 2026-06-08
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -13% | -36% | -14% | +22% | -21% | -7% | -11% | -28% | -37% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2597 | 31% | -0.08R | -0.74% |
| 2019 | 5256 | 34% | -0.06R | -0.56% |
| 2020 | 5761 | 40% | +0.14R | +0.76% |
| 2021 | 5849 | 37% | +0.08R | +0.22% |
| 2022 | 5966 | 34% | -0.04R | -0.53% |
| 2023 | 6220 | 38% | +0.07R | +0.06% |
| 2024 | 6099 | 35% | -0.00R | -0.22% |
| 2025 | 6183 | 34% | -0.06R | -0.57% |
| 2026 | 2800 | 29% | -0.10R | -0.63% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 98 | 31% | +0.3% | +36% | +26% | +143% |
| 2 | ████████ | 302 | 44% | +2.4% | +66% | +718% | +127% |
| 3 | ████████ | 291 | 30% | -0.1% | +41% | -36% | +118% |
| 4 | ████████ | 250 | 40% | +2.6% | +78% | +651% | +109% |
| 5 | ████████ | 297 | 35% | +0.3% | +28% | +91% | +59% |
| 6 | ████████ | 246 | 37% | -0.1% | +29% | -13% | +55% |
| 7 | ████████ | 326 | 36% | +0.5% | +26% | +176% | +46% |
| 8 | DEEPAKNTR free peek | 288 | 33% | +0.3% | +47% | +86% | +46% |
| 9 | ████████ | 285 | 42% | +3.4% | +178% | +962% | +41% |
| 10 | ████████ | 260 | 43% | +5.0% | +119% | +1299% | +40% |
| 11 | ████████ | 270 | 34% | +1.0% | +81% | +269% | +36% |
| 12 | ████████ | 316 | 34% | -0.4% | +19% | -135% | +33% |
| 13 | ████████ | 325 | 36% | +0.4% | +31% | +123% | +27% |
| 14 | ████████ | 325 | 35% | -0.3% | +25% | -100% | +26% |
| 15 | ████████ | 286 | 36% | +0.0% | +27% | +6% | +25% |
| 16 | ████████ | 306 | 36% | +0.3% | +35% | +96% | +24% |
| 17 | ████████ | 318 | 35% | +0.2% | +49% | +52% | +17% |
| 18 | ████████ | 292 | 29% | -0.7% | +16% | -198% | +17% |
| 19 | ████████ | 304 | 36% | -0.4% | +19% | -120% | +16% |
| 20 | ████████ | 312 | 38% | +0.5% | +34% | +158% | +14% |
| 21 | ████████ | 321 | 34% | -0.5% | +40% | -157% | -53% |
| 22 | ████████ | 302 | 27% | -0.8% | +19% | -235% | -52% |
| 23 | ████████ | 283 | 40% | +1.4% | +55% | +406% | -48% |
| 24 | ████████ | 300 | 27% | -0.8% | +12% | -248% | -47% |
| 25 | ████████ | 335 | 35% | -0.0% | +22% | -1% | -47% |
| 26 | ████████ | 233 | 27% | -0.7% | +19% | -155% | -45% |
| 27 | ████████ | 307 | 38% | -0.1% | +25% | -18% | -44% |
| 28 | ████████ | 318 | 33% | -0.3% | +36% | -85% | -43% |
| 29 | ████████ | 319 | 26% | -0.7% | +13% | -211% | -42% |
| 30 | ████████ | 328 | 34% | -0.2% | +25% | -51% | -42% |
You can see the numbers — see the names.
Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel.
The worst stock in this table returned -248% under these
exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 486 | 34% | -0.08R | -0.47% |
| BANKNIFTY | 466 | 36% | -0.00R | -0.28% |
Full transcript (456 words)
1. Strategy Overview
This strategy is based on the distance between the candlestick price and the Moving Average (MA). When price moves away from the Moving Average and then a candle closes above the Moving Average, we wait for a breakout of that candle's high to enter a trade.
2. Buy (Long) Entry Rules
1. Price Moves Away from the Moving Average: The price must move significantly away from the Moving Average.
2. Candle Closes Above the Moving Average: After moving away, wait for a candle to close above the Moving Average, indicating a potential bullish reversal or continuation.
3. Mark the Signal Candle: Identify the candle that closes above the Moving Average.
4. Entry Trigger: Place a buy entry when the price breaks above the high of the signal candle.
5. Stop-Loss: Set the stop-loss at 50% of the signal candle's range, measured downward from its high.
6. Take-Profit: Set the target at a 1:5 risk-to-reward ratio. For every 1 unit of risk, the target is 5 units of potential profit.
3. Sell (Short) Entry Rules
1. Price Moves Away from the Moving Average: The price must move significantly away from the Moving Average.
2. Candle Closes Below the Moving Average: After moving away, wait for a candle to close below the Moving Average, indicating a potential bearish reversal or continuation.
3. Mark the Signal Candle: Identify the candle that closes below the Moving Average.
4. Entry Trigger: Place a sell entry when the price breaks below the low of the signal candle.
5. Stop-Loss: Set the stop-loss at 50% of the signal candle's range, measured upward from its low.
6. Take-Profit: Set the target at a 1:5 risk-to-reward ratio.
4. Risk Management
- Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:5.
- Entry Confirmation: Enter only after the signal candle's high or low is broken.
- Stop-Loss: Use the 50% level of the signal candle's range as the stop-loss reference.
- Trade Discipline: Avoid entering trades before the breakout confirmation.
- Backtesting: Test the strategy on historical XAUUSD data before using it in live trading.
5. Example for a Buy Trade
Suppose the signal candle has:
- High: 4,150
- Low: 4,140
- Range: 10 points
- Entry: 4,150, when the price breaks the signal candle's high.
- Stop-Loss: 4,145, which is 50% of the candle's range below its high.
- Risk: 5 points.
- Take-Profit: 4,175, giving a 1:5 risk-to-reward ratio.
6. Example for a Sell Trade
Suppose the signal candle has:
- High: 4,160
- Low: 4,150
- Range: 10 points
- Entry: 4,150, when the price breaks the signal candle's low.
- Stop-Loss: 4,155, which is 50% of the candle's range above its low.
- Risk: 5 points.
- Take-Profit: 4,125, giving a 1:5 risk-to-reward ratio.
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