BEST Ichimoku Cloud Strategy for Daytrading Forex & Stocks (Ichimoku Explained)
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Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ Strong per-trade edge: +0.31R expectancy across 5,778 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.4 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 32% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -21% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Ichimoku cloud strategy using conversion/baseline crossover (fast/slow MA-like) with kumo cloud (trend filter); baseline crossover is the core mechanical entry rule. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 5,778 trades, win 32%, payoff 3.41, expectancy +0.31R/trade (avg +1.74%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (67% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6% | +13% | +21% | +24% | -5% | +24% | +12% | +1% | +2% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 370 | 26% | -0.22R | -1.78% |
| 2019 | 766 | 31% | +0.08R | +0.39% |
| 2020 | 617 | 45% | +1.03R | +8.59% |
| 2021 | 666 | 35% | +0.40R | +2.36% |
| 2022 | 758 | 30% | +0.08R | +0.24% |
| 2023 | 728 | 43% | +1.23R | +5.23% |
| 2024 | 685 | 25% | +0.16R | +0.71% |
| 2025 | 830 | 27% | -0.03R | -0.51% |
| 2026 | 358 | 22% | -0.28R | -1.43% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 33 | 33% | +2.0% | +44% | +65% | +44% |
| 2 | ████████ | 34 | 35% | +6.4% | +55% | +216% | +42% |
| 3 | ████████ | 31 | 29% | +3.8% | +92% | +117% | +38% |
| 4 | ████████ | 37 | 35% | +5.8% | +65% | +216% | +37% |
| 5 | ████████ | 34 | 32% | +14.2% | +170% | +482% | +35% |
| 6 | ████████ | 33 | 45% | +6.6% | +74% | +217% | +32% |
| 7 | ████████ | 40 | 35% | +4.9% | +94% | +196% | +31% |
| 8 | ABB free peek | 39 | 36% | +3.7% | +54% | +143% | +24% |
| 9 | ████████ | 13 | 23% | -0.9% | +21% | -11% | +23% |
| 10 | ████████ | 31 | 39% | +13.0% | +260% | +402% | +21% |
| 11 | ████████ | 40 | 40% | +3.3% | +72% | +131% | +21% |
| 12 | ████████ | 19 | 37% | +5.2% | +56% | +100% | +21% |
| 13 | ████████ | 28 | 36% | +4.5% | +51% | +126% | +14% |
| 14 | ████████ | 35 | 37% | +1.5% | +56% | +52% | +14% |
| 15 | ████████ | 39 | 26% | +3.5% | +109% | +137% | +13% |
| 16 | ████████ | 33 | 30% | +0.4% | +39% | +14% | +12% |
| 17 | ████████ | 42 | 33% | +3.0% | +70% | +128% | +11% |
| 18 | ████████ | 30 | 37% | +3.2% | +61% | +97% | +11% |
| 19 | ████████ | 34 | 41% | +1.8% | +19% | +60% | +8% |
| 20 | ████████ | 31 | 32% | +2.4% | +49% | +75% | +7% |
| 21 | ████████ | 38 | 24% | +1.9% | +54% | +74% | -22% |
| 22 | ████████ | 40 | 20% | -0.7% | +22% | -29% | -20% |
| 23 | ████████ | 36 | 22% | +0.2% | +34% | +7% | -19% |
| 24 | ████████ | 37 | 27% | +0.5% | +30% | +18% | -19% |
| 25 | ████████ | 35 | 40% | +0.4% | +21% | +14% | -18% |
| 26 | ████████ | 37 | 38% | +3.9% | +52% | +143% | -18% |
| 27 | ████████ | 44 | 25% | -1.1% | +18% | -50% | -17% |
| 28 | ████████ | 13 | 38% | +3.1% | +53% | +40% | -17% |
| 29 | ████████ | 31 | 29% | +1.3% | +48% | +40% | -17% |
| 30 | ████████ | 40 | 38% | +1.4% | +40% | +57% | -17% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 44 | 36% | +0.49R | +1.05% |
| BANKNIFTY | 48 | 42% | +0.31R | +1.07% |
Full transcript (1350 words)
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