Highly Profitable DEMA + SuperTrend Trading Strategy
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Why 3.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ Strong per-trade edge: +0.30R expectancy across 3,876 trades
- ✕ Only 35% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 4 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2022, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Claims it makes (quotes pulled from the transcript)
- “I found a trading strategy that profited 130% in just 2 months of trading.”
- “The total amount of gains from the 100 trades was 130.14% and the trading strategy had a success rate of 60% with 60 winning trades, and 40 loosing trades.”
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Supertrend (ATR 12, multiplier 3) + DEMA 200 trend filter strategy; buy when price above DEMA and Supertrend flips up, exit on Supertrend flip down; backtested 130% gain on DOGE/LTC with 60% win rate. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 3,876 trades, win 35%, payoff 2.75, expectancy +0.30R/trade (avg +1.68%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (56% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-10-22 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +11% | +6% | +56% | +25% | +1% | +16% | +0% | -7% | +2% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 244 | 33% | -0.18R | -1.25% |
| 2019 | 434 | 35% | +0.09R | +0.49% |
| 2020 | 413 | 52% | +1.08R | +9.45% |
| 2021 | 412 | 40% | +0.43R | +2.50% |
| 2022 | 570 | 29% | -0.04R | -0.59% |
| 2023 | 503 | 46% | +1.29R | +5.55% |
| 2024 | 492 | 27% | +0.06R | -0.02% |
| 2025 | 525 | 30% | -0.08R | -0.71% |
| 2026 | 283 | 28% | -0.23R | -1.41% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 21 | 43% | +3.9% | +47% | +83% | +47% |
| 2 | ████████ | 27 | 41% | +8.9% | +95% | +239% | +44% |
| 3 | ████████ | 23 | 22% | +1.2% | +43% | +27% | +38% |
| 4 | ████████ | 27 | 41% | +22.6% | +182% | +611% | +37% |
| 5 | ████████ | 25 | 40% | +4.9% | +52% | +121% | +36% |
| 6 | ████████ | 26 | 62% | +14.1% | +178% | +367% | +28% |
| 7 | ████████ | 25 | 36% | +2.6% | +68% | +64% | +27% |
| 8 | POLYCAB free peek | 22 | 55% | +7.6% | +55% | +166% | +24% |
| 9 | ████████ | 10 | 20% | -1.3% | +23% | -13% | +23% |
| 10 | ████████ | 15 | 33% | +4.6% | +53% | +70% | +18% |
| 11 | ████████ | 27 | 48% | +3.7% | +42% | +100% | +14% |
| 12 | ████████ | 26 | 27% | +1.9% | +68% | +49% | +14% |
| 13 | ████████ | 25 | 32% | +1.9% | +56% | +48% | +14% |
| 14 | ████████ | 28 | 32% | -1.4% | +17% | -38% | +14% |
| 15 | ████████ | 27 | 41% | +3.7% | +58% | +100% | +13% |
| 16 | ████████ | 24 | 50% | +1.9% | +21% | +46% | +12% |
| 17 | ████████ | 26 | 35% | +5.1% | +75% | +134% | +10% |
| 18 | ████████ | 27 | 48% | +2.6% | +33% | +71% | +10% |
| 19 | ████████ | 26 | 35% | +1.6% | +40% | +41% | +10% |
| 20 | ████████ | 25 | 36% | +2.9% | +61% | +73% | +9% |
| 21 | ████████ | 8 | 38% | +2.6% | +37% | +21% | -24% |
| 22 | ████████ | 30 | 37% | +3.0% | +50% | +90% | -24% |
| 23 | ████████ | 24 | 46% | +7.4% | +55% | +177% | -22% |
| 24 | ████████ | 23 | 48% | +0.7% | +26% | +16% | -18% |
| 25 | ████████ | 30 | 27% | -0.2% | +56% | -6% | -17% |
| 26 | ████████ | 24 | 29% | +0.6% | +30% | +14% | -16% |
| 27 | ████████ | 31 | 32% | +2.0% | +38% | +61% | -16% |
| 28 | ████████ | 21 | 38% | +3.1% | +47% | +66% | -16% |
| 29 | ████████ | 27 | 30% | -0.2% | +49% | -4% | -15% |
| 30 | ████████ | 29 | 24% | -0.1% | +36% | -4% | -15% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 42 | 43% | +0.57R | +1.38% |
| BANKNIFTY | 41 | 41% | +0.31R | +1.12% |
Full transcript (1618 words)
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