The Gold Strategy That Took 8 Years to Perfect — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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The Gold Strategy That Took 8 Years to Perfect

Analysed 03 Sep 2026, 03:31 AM IST
★★★☆☆ 3.0 / 5

Why 3.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)

  • ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.11R across 5,759 trades
  • ✓ Convex payoff 6.5 — winners far bigger than losers
  • ✕ Only 17% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
  • ✕ 4 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2022, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
  • ✕ Max drawdown -44% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

IntradaySwing EMASMA/MAFibonacci

Claims it makes (quotes pulled from the transcript)

  • “What I like to do is, let's say my first take profit was there, if it's in the right fundamental direction, I'll close maybe 70 70% 75% of my position right the”
  • “So now I probably would have taken let's say 60% 75% of my take profit.”

Verdict

Auto-backtested. Detected: 200-EMA trend-following. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 5,759 trades, win 17%, payoff 6.48, expectancy +0.11R/trade (avg +0.44%/trade).

This is a marginal edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (56% of years positive).

Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.

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🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)

Tracking since 2026-09-03 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.

Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)

Return+64.7%
CAGR+6.5%
Max drawdown-43.9%
Trades588 · 97 won
₹200,000 → ₹329,424  ·  2018-07-09 → 2026-06-08
201820192020202120222023202420252026
-10%+3%+74%-3%+7%+5%+6%-6%-6%

Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)

YearTradesWin %ExpectancyAvg return / trade
201855311% -0.26R -1.92%
201979715% +0.02R -0.19%
202068025% +0.62R +4.80%
202135621% +0.06R +0.30%
202285015% -0.02R -0.31%
202367023% +0.57R +2.16%
202452312% +0.08R +0.13%
202594215% -0.04R -0.58%
202638813% -0.13R -0.80%

Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)

#StockTradesWin%Avg/tradeBestTotal2026
1 ████████ 2236% +9.7% +70% +213% +68%
2 ████████ 2928% +10.9% +208% +316% +44%
3 ████████ 4314% +3.4% +92% +148% +43%
4 ████████ 2814% +1.9% +42% +54% +36%
5 ████████ 4214% +2.1% +86% +86% +32%
6 ████████ 2129% +3.9% +50% +83% +32%
7 ████████ 2236% +7.4% +48% +164% +28%
8 CGPOWER free peek 1429% +13.2% +176% +185% +25%
9 ████████ 2615% -0.0% +24% +0% +24%
10 ████████ 5413% -0.1% +44% -8% +21%
11 ████████ 147% -1.4% +24% -20% +20%
12 ████████ 3312% -0.5% +30% -15% +16%
13 ████████ 3123% +0.5% +21% +16% +13%
14 ████████ 5118% -0.3% +38% -15% +13%
15 ████████ 2124% +5.6% +59% +119% +12%
16 ████████ 3719% +0.8% +33% +31% +12%
17 ████████ 2524% +1.1% +33% +27% +12%
18 ████████ 508% -1.6% +11% -80% +11%
19 ████████ 3730% +1.1% +16% +41% +8%
20 ████████ 4916% -0.1% +26% -4% +8%
21 ████████ 2015% +1.3% +57% +27% -32%
22 ████████ 687% -2.1% +21% -144% -29%
23 ████████ 4214% +0.5% +48% +21% -25%
24 ████████ 4112% -0.8% +45% -31% -24%
25 ████████ 3619% -0.2% +32% -7% -21%
26 ████████ 3517% +1.3% +45% +44% -20%
27 ████████ 2821% +3.4% +47% +96% -18%
28 ████████ 4513% +0.4% +65% +18% -17%
29 ████████ 4212% -1.6% +25% -65% -16%
30 ████████ 3711% -0.4% +49% -16% -16%
You can see the numbers — see the names. Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel. The worst stock in this table returned -144% under these exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.

Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)

IndexTradesWin%Expectancy (R/trade)Avg return/trade
NIFTY4226% +0.44R +0.85%
BANKNIFTY3829% +0.59R +1.71%
Full transcript (4016 words)
I'd say this strategy came up after like 5 years. A lot of concept that I learned. >> On today's episode of Strategies, we have Victor, a gold trader from Canada who has been trading the gold markets for the past 8 years. >> To get a deep fundamental research at first. The 4-hour, then I'm going to look at [music] the 1-hour, 15 minutes. My first confluence will always be fib level. These are the main fib levels that I'll be monitoring. >> Victor's strategy is built around zones of confluence combining Fibonacci and other key levels to find the highest probability entries on gold. >> Simply right there, when [music] we pulled back into that area, stop loss was 27 pips. My take profit would have looked [music] like this. This trade was a 1:28, 1:29 risk to reward. At that point, I would have taken, let's say, >> Before we start this episode, I just want to let you know that you could have had access to watch this video a day earlier if you're a member of WeOwnPlus. And you get to see the full extended versions of these episodes. So, if you want to check it out, link is in the description below. >> Welcome back to another episode of Strategies. Today, we have a very special guest. He's a trader from Canada. He's been trading the gold markets for the past 8 years. A veteran gold trader. And he trades Fibonacci. So, this is Victor. Victor, welcome to the show. >> Nice to meet you. >> Happy to have you on today. Um I never actually met a Canadian trader, so this is the first time we're going to do a Strategies with a Canadian trader. So, your strategy, I said Fibonacci, but that's the main confluence. What is your strategy in a nutshell? >> It's going to be zones of confluences. So, yes, there's going to be always fib in the zone, but there's going to be lots of confluences as well. >> And this is only for gold. You only trade gold. >> This strategy is going to work for other assets, but I think it's going to be optimized for gold. >> Of course, you've been trading for 8 years. This is not something that I'm I'm I'm sure you developed the first year. >> Nope. >> How did this strategy come to development over the 8 years that you've been trading? >> I'd say this strategy came up after like 5 years. So, it's going to be a mix of a lot of concept that I learned, kind of came up with that one. >> Cool. Well, uh where should we start? >> Hey guys, it's Hunter here. I just want to let you know that WyseOn has released a new channel called WyseOn Live, where we do live trading every single day, Monday through Friday for New York session. If you guys want to come trade with us, get a clear bias for the day, ask any questions, check the link in the description below. Now, let's get back to the video. >> We should start with step one. So, I always love to to get a deep fundamental research at first. So, first one is going to be like uh the funda research. What's happening overall in the current market? And it's going to be what type of market we're in. Are we in a fundamental driven market? Is it more like a fat consolidation where fundamental doesn't really matter? It's then going to affect how I trade on my technical side. >> And quick question, fundamental research. >> Yep. >> Uh I'm a technical trader, so I don't use too much fundamentals in my strategy. For people that want to learn fundamentals or they want to fundamental research, where do you do your fundamental research from? >> Uh like on gold, I'll try to to get a research first of all on the overall what's going on in the world. >> Mhm. >> Uh and also on the USD. So, basically like what's going on with the rates, potential rate cuts, potential rate hikes. I'm looking at the Fed Watch Tool. I know it's a bit like a typical, but X, there's good pages to follow on X that gets you the the right information literally in seconds. So, my favorite my favorite one would be news Squawk. Uh Squawk, I think it's called like that. And then, of course, for like the predetermined news, I'm going to use Forex Factory. So, these are going to be my three things that I'll watch for fundamentals. >> So, what is your technical? >> Technicals, all right. Uh so, my tech Well, first of all, I'll go on the chart starting on the medium-to-high time frame. So, I'd say like usually I'll start on the 4-hour depending on what structure I'm analyzing, but it's going to be on the 4-hour. I'll do my major levels on the 4-hours. My first confluence will always be the fib. Okay, so fib level. I'm looking at a lot of fib levels to be honest. So, first one is going to be the 38, the other one will be the 50, 61, 71, 78, 88, and then there's like the 100, but these are the main fib levels that I'll be monitoring on my charts. I'll have the moving averages. For the moving average, I'm only looking at two different ones. So, first one is going to be the SMA 200, and the other one will be the EMA 200. So, both 200s. Uh the reason I'm looking at both is that sometime one is going to react more than the other. Sometimes going to be the other one, but combined when both are at like the same level, >> [snorts] >> uh it creates a very nice confluence and price often has like a lot of difficulty to pass through, or once it's passed through, then we retest it, and then the the movement will continue. So, it's a nice confluence to add to my chart. Then, we'll have the classic key levels. So, just levels where the price has a tendency to react. So, there's going to be probably lots of wicks on that level. It could be wicks on both sides. It's going to be a key level, right? So, price has a tendency to react on it. Then, I'll have the psychological levels, which is something that not a lot of people are talking about, but >> No, I I've heard about them, but I never actually uh >> So, levels on gold are very strong. So, you've got like the the major hundreds. Gold is at 5,000. Well, 5,000 is a fat uh psychological level, but you can take let's say 5,200, which is like a good side level as well. So, every $100 move is going to be a good side level. Of course, the $1,000 are going to be more strong. There's even sometimes I've saw levels like 3,333 react very solidly for a long time. So, these are all levels that I'm keeping track of, and these are my main confluence >> for my my zones. >> Wow, okay. >> So, now all I do is find on my chart the zones where basically there's going to be the most confluences. And sometimes I can even add trend lines. >> I see. But as you were speaking earlier off off this camera, everything comes down to the fib level. So, if the fib levels aren't >> So, I I say >> matching your confluence and you can't take any trades. >> Yeah, all of these five confluences, I'll need first of all first of all the fib levels, which is like non-negotiables. It's always going to be on a fib level. And a key level as well, okay? So, out of these two, then the the best zones are going to be one that have also, let's say, a moving average passing through it or also a key level, also a side level, also a trend line. So, the more confluence you have, the more chance of the the zone have to work. >> You're starting off on the 4-hour. What are the other time frames that you're using? >> I'm using the 4-hour for like an overall direction of the market. Then I'm going to look at the 1-hour, then the 15 minutes. So, these are the two time frames that I'll use the most, to be honest, since I'm mainly a day trader. So, usually the structures I'm analyzing are on the 1-hour. And then for my entries, which is the last time frame I the last time frame I I use, is going to be the 5-minute. So, this is probably one of the most important one because I can have the best confluences, the best zone as possible on these three time frames. If my entry is not respected on the 5 minutes, I'm just not going to take a trade. >> How are you setting your take profits? Are you setting it off standard RR or are you targeting key levels? >> I'm never targeting a fixed RR. I think the best way that my strategy works is going to be to target just another zone but on the opposite side. So, let's say a buy zone right there, right? So, I bought right there. I had the the entry model that I want. We'll We'll talk about it a bit later. But, I'm in a trade right now. Now, I'll just do my complete analysis but on the other way for some short levels. So, let's say I have a good potential short zone right there. Yes, there's maybe an obstacle right there but it's too close to my entry. I like I like to target a big risk reward. So, my first take profit will be simply my next short zone which is going to be this one. My stop loss is getting moved to break even really quick, to be honest. So, let's say usually I'll risk between 20 to 40 pips per trade. Let's say my entry is right there. Stop loss is right there. My first take profit is going to be maybe a nice obstacle, let's say right there. So, there is some good wicks right there so like maybe a moving average. So, there's odds that market is going to reverse at that point. Pretty simple. Once my trade reaches that, I'm not putting my stop to break even really because there's odds that it's just going to go retrace to my entry and then maybe come back. So, I just wait for a close above the closest obstacle. So, let's say my 5 minute candle will close right there. Then, I'll move my stop loss to break even. >> Is that a body close or wick close? >> A body close. >> Okay. >> Using my strategy, we get loads of break evens. So, I don't count them, let's say in the win rate. On a sample of 10 trades, we'll get maybe six break even and then >> two two. >> You have all these fibonaccis here. Which ones are the most important when it comes to your trading? >> My favorite one is the 78. >> Right there. Reason is the 61 got so popular. I mean it still works really good and I I take a lot of trade on the 61, but what usually happens is that a lot of retail trader will simply just enter on the 61 and their stop loss are going to be usually around that 78 level. When the the there's more confluences on the 78 and the 61, then I'll just simply wait for that 78 and all my best trades were taken on that 78 because lots of liquidity is always there and then basically everyone from the 61 gets stopped out. So it it usually uh reacts really quick and gives some very good trades. >> So Shadi, this is starting to make a lot of sense now. Before we take the strategy to the actual chart, two questions for you. One, how long are you usually in a trade with such a high RR? And two, do you leave runners? >> So first question, uh my my answer is it depends, okay? Some trades uh can take days. Some Some trades are going to be done in like an hour. So it's really going to depend on the volatility, where the market is going, uh but sometimes, let's say I enter a trade at 8:30 a.m., at 10:00 a.m. it's going to be done. But now uh for the second part, I'm never I'm never closing 100% of my positions. Uh well, I rarely do. Uh the the reason is um that's why I analyze the fundamental that much is that I'm always going to leave a runner of my position, so it's going to be like a percentage of my position opened uh towards the the fundamental direction of the market. So let's say uh right now gold is fundamentally driven and it's supposed to be bullish and I managed to get a very clean buy, uh I would be dumb to just close everything at the first take profit because there's high odds that we're just going to continue up and up and up. What I like to do is, let's say my first take profit was there, if it's in the right fundamental direction, I'll close maybe 70 70% 75% of my position right there and just leave the rest to run. And what's nice with this is that once you got that, let's say 25% runner, um once you get to a nice short zone, uh your short is basically free because if you lose, it's basically covered by that runner. Uh and that's how I manage my position so that a lot of the time when I'm trading either countertrend or counter fundamentals, those trades are most likely going to be risk-free because I have this runner. Oh, yeah. Let's hop on the charts and see how this strategy works. Trading can be a lonely game, and that's why most traders fail. Wayon Plus fixes that. Live trading every day, Monday through Friday for London and New York sessions. We have a full structured education library from beginner to advanced and exclusive courses from the traders that you watch right here on Wayon. Plus, exclusive giveaways, rewards, and a community full of traders on the same journey as you. We are also hosting free webinars weekly. Check the link below to register for the next one. Everything you need, all in one place, all in one community. Visit the link in the description below to become the next Wayon Plus member. Now, let's get back to the episode. All right, Victor. So, now we're on the charts. Let's see some trade breakdowns. >> All right. So, uh we are on the 4-hour charts. This is a trade I took on March 12, 2026. We're currently on the 4-hour. Like I said, the structure is like a a pretty good triangle. Major drop from gold right there. Uh it's still fundamentally It was still fundamentally bearish with the last drop right there. I was looking for a continuation down. Uh so, I was mainly looking at short levels. So, the structure we'll analyze will be uh this one right there. So, I was interested in retracement from that uh downside level right there and maybe this small downside right there. You can see I have our 1-hour 200 uh EMA and SMA. We are currently sitting in on a a good 50 fib. We took some major liquidity right there. I mean, after that, the next liquidity would be like further up. So, since we got back below the 50 and this level, I was now interesting interested to short. Now, I just need to go on the smaller time frame since I have my main bias. So, I'll go on the 15 minutes and do my work. So, the structure I'm analyzing on the 15 will be this one. All I'm looking for is a continuation on the downside. So, I'll start with my fib. To place your fib, it's pretty easy. You need to find the last impulse, which in that case there's going to be two. Okay? So, first one would be that's one from there, but as you can see, we've kind of retraced it all the way. So, we can start our fib from this one actually. So, I'll put my fib right there. We are currently on a nice level. We've got 61 fib reacted pretty well on the 15 minutes. We've got the 15 minute 200 moving averages. On the 1 hour when we were there, there was the 200 SMA also. We kind of have a nice little key level right there on the 61. So, all those weeks from there this right there. So, this was a good short level. I start trading at around 8:00 a.m. Eastern. So, this was the chart that I woke up to. Okay? So, the best entry probably would have been on that, but it was at 5:45 6:00 a.m. So, there was no possible entry for me. So, I was waiting for just a good way to enter in the short to just continue this start of the downside movement. So, now I go on the 5 minute to find my potential entry. I go that I see that now I can also trace a smaller fib right there. So, from there to there. And now, like the best zone possible would be just maybe a retest of around that grab this liquidity right there. It's a retest of my major 61 just some good structure right there. So now I'll just wait for price to go back up and then see if I can get my entry criteria to just jump in the For now price made let's say a new low. So now I got to switch my fib. My fib is now bigger, but it's going to be the same thing, right? So now it's going to be a 78 zone instead of a 61. >> Which is your favorite zone, right? >> Yeah, which is my favorite zone because now probably everyone jumped on that 61 with that small little liquidity right there. Liquidity was grabbed. The better zone was that major fib 61 retest, but now I need what I called a structure. Okay, so a structure is always on the 5 minutes. It's my entry criteria that I need on every trade. It's simple. It's just three times three candles on the 5 minutes that reacts on my level. Okay, so very similar to these candles right there. So I just need three candles on the 5 minute that just tells me that my level is holding that my level is giving reaction. So I already have my first two. So this one and that one. I can wait for the third one. Third one is right there. Now all I need is to find a valid entry with a good risk. If you look if I want to enter right after that level right there. It's too big. All right, I usually like my stop loss between 20 to 40 pips. So I'll need just a retracement maybe around that zone 35. The best one would be like a retest of that small 71 with that liquidity right there. We be risking like 26 29 pips. So, I'm just waiting for a good retracement. Now, price retraced a bit. My entry was right there. Okay, so on that 60 that 71 right there, retesting that major liquidity right there. Well, major maybe that's small. So, my entry was simply right there when we pull back into that area. My risk was entry was right there. My stop loss is always just a bit above my my third wick. So, like that. Entry was like that. Stop loss was I think it was about 28 27 pips. So, like that. And then, my take profit we just need to do like I said my analysis on the other sides of things. So, now I want to trace my fib my next fib for potential buy zones, which in this case we will start our fib from this one probably right there. Now, as we can see we've got a nice 61 fib, a nice little retest zone right there. So, a nice key level. So, this would be my next buy zone. Okay, so around that level. So, yes it's going to be a zone that I'll look for buys, but it's also going to be my take profit one. Okay? So, now [snorts] my take profit would have looked like this. So, in this case this trade was a 1 to 8 1 to 9 risk to reward. And then, let's just see if things are going well. We tapped into the the take profit zone pretty quick. I don't remember if I closed it like that or if I just waited for really complete the full take profit. What I did was leave a runner for sure since we were in the right direction of the market. My stop loss was put to break even once we closed that candle. So, the big red candle you can see right there. So, once I had a close like right below that first obstacle, which was these candles, my my stop loss was moves to break even just like that. And then my main take profit was that and then we just wait. So now I probably would have taken let's say 60% 75% of my take profit. Let's say I was in like 10 lots. I would have closed let's say seven, leave three. And then you can just go on the higher time frame and do a bigger analysis because on runners I love to have a way bigger take profits. So in this case I would have traced my fib from this major swing like that. So from there And then let's say my next take profit for my major runner would have been that 61 right there. We've got a 61. If you look on the on the left there's some major wicks near that point. You've got that psychological level that 5.1k right there. So I'll have let's say a buy zone at this point also. And also I'll just leave the runner until then. If price can just go down go down go down. >> Wow. >> Then at that point I would have taken let's say out of those three lots I would have closed two and then leave just another one running until I find that either the fundamental has switched or just that I lost too many trades let's say trying to buy. So I need to close some partials of that trade. So that was this trade. >> I claim that. >> Yeah, if you go on my Instagram I have all my trades taken in my stories. So it was March 12. You can see a >> This is a awesome strategy man. Thank you for coming on the show and and showing this. I really appreciate it. If you guys do want to see a part two, be sure to comment down below what you want to see with Victor. And also be sure to check out his socials, give him a subscribe, give him a follow. And we'll link his socials in the descriptions below. Victor, any last words to say to our audience before we close it out here? >> It's been pretty fun. Thank you, guys. >> All right, signing off. Take care, guys.

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