कल Gap UP होगा या Gap Down कैसे पता करें | BTST Trading Strategy | SAGAR SINHA
Verdict
Real minute-level backtest. Scored as the nearest tested variant: strangle sold at 10:00 with NO stop-loss, square-off 15:15, on 2,126 real trading days 2015–2026 (1-minute NIFTY option premiums — every crash, election and expiry day included), real charges and spread, 1 lot.
Net ₹-47,998 (≈ ₹-3,999/yr, -2.7%/yr on ~₹1.5L margin — roughly breakeven after costs), 62% green days, avg ₹-22/day, max drawdown ₹-166,128. Yearly: 2015: ₹-5,839. 2016: ₹-26,890. 2017: ₹-11,815. 2018: ₹-27,723. 2019: ₹-34,417. 2020: ₹-20,494. 2021: ₹+12,392. 2022: ₹-43,160. 2023: ₹+26,523. 2024: ₹+845. 2025: ₹+68,362. 2026: ₹+14,218.
Worst days: 04-Jun-24 ₹-33,838 | 20-Sep-19 ₹-24,638 | 16-Jun-22 ₹-23,220 | 17-Apr-25 ₹-23,149 | 23-Jan-24 ₹-19,796. The per-leg stop caps normal disasters, but it fills at market on the breach — a violent single minute can blow through it (see the worst-day figure). Without a stop-loss this family is a time bomb — the same grid's no-SL cells give back years of gains on single event days (elections, crashes).
Intraday premium-selling verdicts are scored against our precomputed 12-year variant grid; the nearest variant to this video's described rules is shown. Flagged for human review.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-07-13 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Full transcript (7114 words)
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