FINALLY! An ORB Strategy That Actually Works (Full Breakdown) — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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FINALLY! An ORB Strategy That Actually Works (Full Breakdown)

Trendline Project · watch on YouTube ↗
Analysed 27 Sep 2026, 06:39 PM IST
★★★★☆ 4.0 / 5

Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)

  • ✓ Strong per-trade edge: +0.41R expectancy across 11,194 trades
  • ✓ Convex payoff 3.5 — winners far bigger than losers
  • ✕ Only 31% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
  • ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2022, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
  • ✕ Max drawdown -29% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

IntradaySwing SMA/MAPivot pointsOpening range

Verdict

Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Opening Range Breakout (ORB) scalping strategy with 30-min range + auto trend line confirmation for intraday 15-min timeframe. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 11,194 trades, win 31%, payoff 3.50, expectancy +0.41R/trade (avg +2.15%/trade).

This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (67% of years positive).

Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.

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Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)

Return+130.2%
CAGR+11.2%
Max drawdown-28.7%
Trades309 · 94 won
₹200,000 → ₹460,424  ·  2018-07-24 → 2026-06-08
201820192020202120222023202420252026
-6%+8%+51%+30%-15%+26%+6%+2%+0%

Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)

YearTradesWin %ExpectancyAvg return / trade
20184669% -0.77R -4.95%
2019106426% +0.00R +0.17%
2020156241% +1.10R +8.09%
2021159033% +0.43R +2.63%
2022136225% -0.03R -0.52%
2023181643% +1.35R +5.76%
2024159327% +0.16R +0.54%
2025123129% +0.00R -0.28%
202651021% -0.37R -1.69%

Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)

#StockTradesWin%Avg/tradeBestTotal2026
1 ████████ 6854% +31.2% +181% +2125% +146%
2 ████████ 8353% +21.9% +124% +1819% +126%
3 ████████ 5746% +5.7% +72% +322% +97%
4 ████████ 5737% +5.2% +52% +296% +96%
5 ████████ 6639% +9.6% +125% +636% +84%
6 ████████ 8937% +3.0% +54% +266% +84%
7 ████████ 6035% +4.7% +101% +281% +76%
8 BHEL free peek 7638% +4.2% +66% +319% +48%
9 ████████ 8039% +11.4% +255% +909% +24%
10 ████████ 8730% +3.9% +65% +339% +23%
11 ████████ 7930% +0.4% +49% +34% +23%
12 ████████ 7630% +5.1% +92% +386% +17%
13 ████████ 7829% +3.8% +61% +297% +17%
14 ████████ 9240% +7.5% +61% +692% +13%
15 ████████ 8544% +5.4% +48% +455% +10%
16 ████████ 9033% +0.4% +32% +38% +10%
17 ████████ 3633% +1.0% +43% +38% +5%
18 ████████ 9337% +2.8% +48% +261% +3%
19 ████████ 6525% -1.4% +35% -93% +3%
20 ████████ 9352% +12.0% +97% +1120% +0%
21 ████████ 7121% -1.8% +25% -127% -44%
22 ████████ 229% -5.1% +10% -112% -40%
23 ████████ 7329% +3.3% +69% +238% -40%
24 ████████ 5730% +2.5% +60% +142% -39%
25 ████████ 9324% +0.7% +105% +61% -38%
26 ████████ 4418% +0.8% +100% +37% -37%
27 ████████ 8925% +1.5% +69% +135% -35%
28 ████████ 7729% +0.2% +41% +12% -33%
29 ████████ 9024% +1.0% +53% +93% -33%
30 ████████ 8521% +1.5% +61% +131% -33%
You can see the numbers — see the names. Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel. The worst stock in this table returned -127% under these exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.

Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)

IndexTradesWin%Expectancy (R/trade)Avg return/trade
NIFTY16435% +0.35R +0.62%
BANKNIFTY13831% +0.15R +0.48%
Full transcript (880 words)
The advanced ORB indicator combined with auto trend lines for an effective strategy. Let's dive in. I reviewed this version of the ORB indicator in a recent video. For those who haven't seen it, here's a quick summary. >> [music] >> I've included time codes so you can jump straight to the next section if you're already familiar with how it works. The indicator is called opening range with breakouts and targets by Lux Algo. Offering a dynamic trading framework based on the market's opening range. It identifies the high and low points during a configurable opening period, default 30 minutes. Then uses this range to establish support and resistance levels and calculate potential price targets. The indicator displays the opening range as a highlighted box. When price breaks above or below these levels, the indicator can generate visual breakout signals. >> [music] >> As price continues to move, the indicator automatically calculates and displays [music] target levels at specified percentages of the original range. A notable feature is the daily bias option that considers the relationship between current and previous opening ranges when generating signals. When enabled, signals only appear in the direction of the current day's bias. Bullish when today's opening range midpoint is above yesterday's, bearish when below. The indicator also offers an optional session-based moving average that resets at the beginning of each session, [music] providing additional context for price action relative to the opening range. A traditional approach to trading effectively with this indicator is to allow the opening range to establish itself during the specified period. Then monitor for breakout signals. Enter long positions when price successfully breaks above the opening range high or short positions when price breaks below the opening range low. For more reliable entries, consider waiting for a successful retest of the broken range boundary before committing to a position. This approach helps filter out false breakouts while maintaining favorable risk to reward. Use the automatically calculated target levels for taking profits at logical points as price moves in your favor. Set your stop loss at the opposite side of the opening range to define clear risk parameters. But for today's strategy, as mentioned earlier, we'll combine it with the auto trend line indicator, which in my opinion is one of the most effective indicators to pair with the ORB. The one we'll be using is called the liquidity trend line with signals by Big Beluga. This is a tool designed to help traders identify potential market breakouts and reversals by utilizing pivot points to construct trend lines. These trend lines serve as key reference levels where price movements may either break out or experience a retest. It uses a calculation period which defines the lookback period to identify pivot points, and this period directly influences the creation of the trend lines. The spacing between these trend lines is controlled through a padding input, allowing traders to adjust the distance between the trend lines for better visualization and analysis. The indicator also includes breakout signals that are plotted on the chart when the price moves beyond a trend line. Trend lines are formed when two consecutive pivot points are identified with each pivot being either higher or lower than the previous one. The period input determines the number of bars used in finding these pivots, offering flexibility in how trend lines are drawn. Once a trend line is established, the indicator tracks price movement for any breakouts, and a signal is generated when price moves beyond the trend line, which could suggest a change in market sentiment. After a breakout, price may return to the trend line, testing it as support or resistance. This retest scenario is an essential part of market analysis as prices that bounce off the trend line may signal a of the existing trend. This strategy is designed for scalping and day trading and works best on time frames not higher than 15 minutes. First, define the opening range using the default 30-minute period or adjust it based on specific trading hours. The ORB indicator will highlight the high and low of this range, setting the key support and resistance levels for the session. Once the range is established, to enhance entry precision, the liquidity trend line with signals indicator is used to confirm breakouts. Before entering a trade, wait for the price to break the trend line in the direction of the ORB breakout. Stronger signals occur when the next day's opening range forms a higher high or lower low compared to the previous day, reinforcing the trend. You can choose to take entries only in the direction of this trend for increased probability of success. For trade management, use the target levels provided by the ORB indicator to secure partial profits as [music] the price moves in your favor. The stop loss should be placed below the recent swing just before the entry. For scalping, consider lowering the auto trend line indicator's period setting to detect more immediate price reactions. This adjustment helps in capturing short-term momentum shifts, making the strategy more responsive to rapid market movements. Let me know if you'd use this strategy in your trading and don't forget to check out our video on the truth behind five popular AI indicators.

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