Fibonacci Trading Strategy 2026 || Masterclass
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Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ Strong per-trade edge: +0.45R expectancy across 8,060 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.4 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 32% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2022, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -24% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Fibonacci retracement-based breakout/swing trading strategy: mark HTF swing, identify 50-61% retracement zones, enter on 5-15min pullback candle closes below/above levels, target inverse retracement l Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 8,060 trades, win 32%, payoff 3.45, expectancy +0.45R/trade (avg +2.37%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (67% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6% | +4% | +33% | +32% | +1% | +12% | +8% | -14% | -2% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 102 | 10% | -0.82R | -5.09% |
| 2019 | 753 | 28% | +0.09R | +0.81% |
| 2020 | 1143 | 39% | +0.95R | +6.58% |
| 2021 | 1293 | 34% | +0.48R | +3.01% |
| 2022 | 820 | 24% | -0.04R | -0.47% |
| 2023 | 1421 | 43% | +1.26R | +5.42% |
| 2024 | 1303 | 28% | +0.20R | +0.69% |
| 2025 | 868 | 29% | +0.04R | -0.16% |
| 2026 | 357 | 22% | -0.31R | -1.27% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 56 | 50% | +29.0% | +181% | +1623% | +146% |
| 2 | ████████ | 38 | 45% | +8.3% | +52% | +316% | +106% |
| 3 | ████████ | 39 | 51% | +8.7% | +72% | +337% | +105% |
| 4 | ████████ | 69 | 57% | +25.3% | +124% | +1742% | +93% |
| 5 | ████████ | 48 | 29% | +8.4% | +125% | +404% | +89% |
| 6 | ████████ | 64 | 42% | +3.4% | +54% | +215% | +84% |
| 7 | ████████ | 60 | 37% | +3.6% | +52% | +217% | +43% |
| 8 | BHARATFORG free peek | 61 | 36% | +0.2% | +28% | +15% | +23% |
| 9 | ████████ | 52 | 35% | +3.6% | +59% | +188% | +18% |
| 10 | ████████ | 57 | 33% | +4.7% | +52% | +269% | +17% |
| 11 | ████████ | 23 | 26% | -1.7% | +35% | -40% | +16% |
| 12 | ████████ | 58 | 36% | +6.4% | +65% | +370% | +9% |
| 13 | ████████ | 41 | 39% | +4.6% | +101% | +188% | +6% |
| 14 | ████████ | 59 | 42% | +11.4% | +176% | +670% | +4% |
| 15 | ████████ | 70 | 39% | +3.0% | +39% | +213% | +3% |
| 16 | ████████ | 69 | 29% | -0.1% | +32% | -9% | +2% |
| 17 | ████████ | 75 | 49% | +10.6% | +95% | +795% | +0% |
| 18 | ████████ | 54 | 41% | +12.2% | +70% | +658% | +0% |
| 19 | ████████ | 60 | 40% | +7.7% | +70% | +459% | +0% |
| 20 | ████████ | 39 | 59% | +11.2% | +51% | +438% | +0% |
| 21 | ████████ | 41 | 17% | -3.0% | +22% | -125% | -36% |
| 22 | ████████ | 58 | 29% | +3.7% | +69% | +215% | -36% |
| 23 | ████████ | 67 | 27% | +2.3% | +69% | +153% | -35% |
| 24 | ████████ | 57 | 21% | -1.6% | +41% | -92% | -32% |
| 25 | ████████ | 58 | 41% | +5.3% | +106% | +308% | -32% |
| 26 | ████████ | 53 | 19% | -0.5% | +55% | -26% | -29% |
| 27 | ████████ | 50 | 30% | -0.3% | +21% | -15% | -28% |
| 28 | ████████ | 63 | 21% | +0.4% | +52% | +25% | -27% |
| 29 | ████████ | 55 | 25% | +0.1% | +31% | +5% | -26% |
| 30 | ████████ | 65 | 42% | +8.6% | +59% | +560% | -26% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 144 | 33% | +0.26R | +0.43% |
| BANKNIFTY | 108 | 27% | -0.01R | -0.11% |
Full transcript (3624 words)
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