This EASY Liquidity Trap Strategy Made Me $500K+ (Sniper Entries Explained) — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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This EASY Liquidity Trap Strategy Made Me $500K+ (Sniper Entries Explained)

Raghee Horner · watch on YouTube ↗
Analysed 01 Aug 2026, 03:09 PM IST
★☆☆☆☆ 1.0 / 5
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Heads up: this strategy was originally created for the US stock market. We applied the exact same logic to Indian stocks & indices and the backtest completed successfully — every result below is on Indian market data.

Why 1.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)

  • Negative expectancy: -0.24R per trade across 28,458 trades
  • Payoff 0.60 — the average winner is SMALLER than the average loser
  • 9 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021) — the edge is regime-dependent

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

FuturesIntraday VWAPOpening rangeLiquidity/ICTPrev-day H/LVolume

Claims it makes (quotes pulled from the transcript)

  • “If you have even a fantastic win rate, like 62%, that means of every 10 trades, you're going to lose three to four times.”
  • “And if your win rate is even 50%, that will still grow an account.”
  • “If your win rate can edge up to 60, 65, even 70%, now you're really cooking with gas.”
  • “Never, ever, ever in the opening 6 to 12 months of your trading exceed 2 to 3%.”

Verdict

Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Liquidity trap strategy: identifies pre-market levels (prior day high/low, overnight extremes, volume profile zones), waits for price to sweep those levels creating a wick, then enters on pullback con We isolated the one mechanical claim — a day-of-week bias where a prior session's level is expected to be 'revisited'/swept — and traded it short across 159 large/mid-caps with real costs: 28,458 trades, win 49%, expectancy -0.24R/trade (avg -0.24%/trade).

The result is a high win-rate that still loses money after costs — a negative-skew mirage: small targets, larger adverse moves. A directional lean can be statistically real yet still fail to pay once you attach a target, a stop and costs.

Mechanically decoded and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review.

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🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)

Tracking since 2026-07-08 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.

Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)

YearTradesWin %ExpectancyAvg return / trade
2018171547% -0.21R -0.26%
2019346750% -0.22R -0.21%
2020322748% -0.05R -0.11%
2021338049% -0.30R -0.33%
2022384258% -0.06R -0.10%
2023364241% -0.41R -0.34%
2024352142% -0.37R -0.34%
2025403349% -0.30R -0.26%
2026163156% -0.15R -0.17%

Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)

#StockTradesWin%Avg/tradeBestTotal2026
1 ████████ 18852% -0.1% +6% -16% +6%
2 ████████ 17949% -0.3% +7% -47% +5%
3 ████████ 19253% -0.1% +6% -13% +4%
4 ████████ 5657% -0.3% +2% -15% +4%
5 ████████ 18948% -0.2% +10% -46% +4%
6 ████████ 19242% -0.3% +9% -59% +4%
7 ████████ 15043% -0.5% +4% -76% +4%
8 IDFCFIRSTB free peek 17953% -0.0% +11% -8% +3%
9 ████████ 18252% -0.1% +9% -10% +3%
10 ████████ 17854% -0.1% +3% -9% +2%
11 ████████ 19251% -0.1% +7% -14% +2%
12 ████████ 10551% -0.2% +5% -22% +2%
13 ████████ 18750% -0.2% +3% -39% +2%
14 ████████ 17549% -0.2% +3% -40% +2%
15 ████████ 18849% -0.2% +4% -44% +2%
16 ████████ 17050% -0.3% +3% -46% +2%
17 ████████ 17951% -0.3% +5% -46% +2%
18 ████████ 18350% -0.3% +6% -47% +2%
19 ████████ 16545% -0.3% +2% -49% +2%
20 ████████ 18849% -0.3% +3% -51% +2%
21 ████████ 19050% -0.4% +3% -70% -13%
22 ████████ 18642% -0.3% +10% -60% -9%
23 ████████ 18847% -0.3% +3% -56% -9%
24 ████████ 18653% -0.1% +13% -25% -9%
25 ████████ 18843% -0.3% +8% -48% -8%
26 ████████ 18350% -0.2% +11% -37% -8%
27 ████████ 18048% -0.2% +7% -32% -8%
28 ████████ 18543% -0.4% +3% -73% -7%
29 ████████ 15148% -0.3% +3% -48% -7%
30 ████████ 20644% -0.2% +6% -43% -7%
You can see the numbers — see the names. Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel. The worst stock in this table returned -76% under these exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.

Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)

IndexTradesWin%Expectancy (R/trade)Avg return/trade
NIFTY24235% -0.55R -0.19%
BANKNIFTY25445% -0.41R -0.18%
Full transcript (3283 words)
Year over year, over year, account growth without a losing year. That's what this strategy has helped me produce across my trading career. This isn't about home runs. This isn't about making huge profits in a day, not even a week, not even a month. This is about deliberate, process-driven trading day in and day out. And then you add that to years, if not decades, of discipline over and over in real markets with real money. I'm telling you this up front because I want to be completely transparent with you about something. There are no shortcuts in trading. There are strategies with a genuine edge, and you can shorten the learning curve by learning things that have worked from people who have made them work. And the liquidity trap strategy is one of them. I've been trading since 1988, and this is one of the setups I come back to again and again because it's built on one unchanging truth. Institutions need liquidity to move, and retail traders all too often provide it unknowingly every single day. And once you understand how that works, you stop being the liquidity. You start hunting alongside the people who actually move the market. So, in this video, I'm going to show you exactly how I do that. There's four pieces, and this is more of a patience-driven, call it a sniper approach to trading liquidity traps. So, let's start this with what a liquidity trap actually is. Most traders have heard the term. If you've been in this channel for a while, you've heard me talk about it a lot. So, let's talk about what is actually happening under the hood. A liquidity trap is not a random or false breakout. It's not bad luck. It's an engineered move, and here are the mechanics. Every stop loss sitting above a ceiling or a resistance level is a buy order that's waiting to trigger because that trader or those traders feel that if price gets to that level, it'll continue higher. Why else would they want to get in? And every stop loss sitting below a support level is a sell order waiting to trigger because those traders believe that if that floor or support level is broken, price will continue to go down. And guess what? Institutions know this. They can see order flow. They know exactly where retail traders are placing their stops. So, they push price to those levels deliberately, not because that's the true direction that they want to go, but they need those orders to fill their positions. Price sweeps above resistance. Retail stop losses are triggered, creating a flood of buy orders. Institutions then go use those buy orders to sell into because remember, for every buyer in the market, there must be a seller and vice versa. And this happens at scale. Then price reverses after this break and retail traders get stopped out on the pullback. The institution is now short with size. Here's where the real move begins and in the opposite direction. This happens every day on every time frame and on every instrument. And it's not a glitch in the matrix. It's not a mistake in the market. It's the market working exactly as it was designed. The question is really simple then. Are you the one getting trapped or are you the one that sees the trap coming? Here's how to identify the trap before it triggers. This is where that sniper analogy, that precision, earns its place. A sniper doesn't spray and pray as it's known. A sniper identifies a target zone in advance. That's the precision. They set up a position and then they wait and then they wait some more. And when the moment arrives, they use that precision because they've been patient and place themselves in the right place to put the shot out there. That's exactly how I approach liquidity trap entries, with that patience and with that precision. So, before the market opens, I mark my levels. Previous day's high and low, previous session close, overnight highs and lows, and any market extremes. This might be caused by news. This could be caused by any number of factors. But, what are those wild moves that have left highs and lows before the bell rings at 9:30. These are zones where liquidity is sitting because those are places where orders have triggered. If you want another layer upon that to see where the size is, use volume profile. Use an anchored VWAP. This will give you a footprint of not only the value area high and low, but the point of control, which is where the most number of contracts have been traded. These are levels to watch. Then, during the session, the bell is rung. I've waited out the first 5 minutes. Now, I'm watching. I'm not looking for a setup yet. I'm watching for price to approach one of these levels, and I want to do so while understanding whether the market is trending or chopping. So, when price does get to a level, I slow down. I take a breath. Because what happens next when price gets there tells me what I need to know. Does price sweep the level cleanly and keep going? Potential genuine breakouts typically happen if price is above the previous session close and trending. And personally, I'll stay out of that because I like a better risk reward on a retracement after an opening range breakout. Does price spike through the level aggressively and establish a wick and then pull back? Often times, that'll look like a doji or a minor high and even sometimes an inside candle. That's the trap. This is the liquidity sweep. Liquidity meaning trader orders, sweep meaning getting filled. That's my signal to prepare. But, I don't enter yet. The sweep itself is not the entry. The sweep is the warning shot. The setup is still forming. The key to this entire strategy is having your levels marked before price gets there. And I put together my pre-market preparation checklist in the notes that show exactly what I'm marking on my charts every single morning. All right, here's where we put the patience and the precision to work. And you might have heard the saying that slow is smooth and smooth is fast. So I'm looking for precision over speed. Way too many traders are in a rush. Here's where most traders who understand liquidity traps are still sadly losing money. They see the sweep. All right, at least that's better than not seeing it and they recognize the trap. They're already ahead of most traders. And then they enter immediately. That's way too early and a lot of times way too emotional. There's no confirmation and price sweeps them out too on a second wick before the real move begins. The sniper doesn't shoot the moment the target appears. Sniper waits for a clean shot. Here's my exact entry sequence. Step one, price sweeps the level and wicks. The wick is that skinny little line above the candle body where since the body's no longer there, there really wasn't a lot of commitment. I'm going to note that. I'm not going to touch it. Step two is price begins to retrace back inside the range. Now I'm watching the five minute chart really closely. That's my preferred time frame for day trading. That brings me to step three. I wait for a confirmation candle. A strong bodied candle closing decisively away from the sweep level. Now, I say closing. I don't wait for the close. I want to see that there's commitment back to the downside. I won't wait for the candle close, but I like to see that heavy candle moving away from the sweep level. These are not small indecision candles. These are going to be patterns. Inside candle, minor high. That pattern helps me know that there's more commitment to the stall or the sweep. It tells me institutions have finished collecting and are now pushing. Here's another thing you can look for. Is the first candle that created the opening range breakout or any kind of breach in large volume candle. And again, if you're using TradingView, you can use their volume candles. What about the second candle that comes after? If it's narrower in size, that means there's less participation to the upside. Use volume, use participation to your advantage. That brings me to step four. I'm going to see whether or not we have a wick left behind, we start to move back down into the range. Again, I don't wait for the close of a candle, but I want to see the confirmation of a wick, and I want to see the commitment back to the downside. The reason I don't wait for a close is closes are completely random. Whether someone's using a 1-minute chart, 3-minute chart, 5-minute chart, these are going to be different closes. Closes are not the key. Price is, and that's why we've drawn all those different price levels on the chart. Waiting for a close is really a new trader habit. And the longer they realize it's less about a candle close and more about a specific price being broken to the upper downside, they'll realize where the action is. Now, here's where the stop goes. It's just beyond the sweet point. I don't want to put it at the high or at the low. I'm going to put it just beyond it, right? So, whatever that high wick was, I might put it just above the high wick or just below the low wick, if we're talking about a breakdown. That's an invalidation level. If price goes back there, well, my trap thesis is wrong, and there's really movement to the overall upside. By the way, most of the time, that will be because of two things. One, because that second candle was also a high volume candle, or two, there's an overall uptrend, and there's probably not a lot of reason for traders to be bearish. Step five, target the next major level in the direction of the move. So, this could be halfway between the range. I love that. They call it a half back. So, take the high and low of the range, cut it in half, that's a great first target. The next target could be the low of the range. It could be a previous day high or low that we're going to reach on the way down there. Could be a major volume zone, like an anchored volume weighted average price, value area low, point of control. Keep an eye on these levels. My risk on my trades usually range from as little as 2% to usually no more than 3%. And typically I use 3%. So I might enter with up to three scale-ins. Right? So in that whole process of the sweep, I might have up to three different places that I will enter. All the same direction. And each entry represents no more than 1% account risk. My target is ideally a one to one. Right? You might say, "One to one, Rob?" Yes, if I'm willing to risk one, I need to make at least one. Don't trade with an upside down risk reward ratio. If I can get to a two to one, where if I pay $2 for an option, I can scale out at four, that's great. But a lot of traders look to double their premium when options trading, and they look for one to two or one to three risk reward, and they end up letting a really good winner go by the wayside because it wasn't a big enough winner. So really, I'll start with a one to one risk reward. It's on the second or third scale out that I might get to two to one or three to one and start to see my premium double or even triple. That's the patience. That's the precision, and that's the sniper entry. All the zones are identified in advance, and then they're triggered by confirmation. Execution without hesitation. Because once I see the setup at the levels that were predetermined, I know that that's the high probability zone. There's no such thing as 100% certainty. We play probabilities as traders. We have stop losses in case we're wrong. Think of it this way. If you have even a fantastic win rate, like 62%, that means of every 10 trades, you're going to lose three to four times. The most important thing here is that your average winner is larger than your average loser. And if your win rate is even 50%, that will still grow an account. If your win rate can edge up to 60, 65, even 70%, now you're really cooking with gas. Now, this strategy compounds over time. Frankly, like any good strategy does, where the average winner is greater than the average loser. But, here's the part nobody talks about. The winnings of my strategy haven't been home runs. I'm not talking about one massive trade. This comes from consistency. I like to liken this to my favorite baseball player, Cal Ripken. I grew up watching the Baltimore Orioles. And Cal was what? He was the Iron Man. He was healthy for thousands of games, and he got on base. And that's what I want to do. Too many traders are getting up to the plate, and they want to hit a home run or a grand slam every time. Our job is to get on base, right? That's consistency. And that means that I'm taking the same high probability setup. Just like Cal knew his pitch. He waited for it with the same discipline that I wait for my entries. Now, we start to apply the risk management. Part of risk management is knowing, what is my risk per scale in, and what is my risk for the entire trade? Risk is not only the risk to the, let's say, option that you might be buying, but to the overall account. Never, ever, ever in the opening 6 to 12 months of your trading exceed 2 to 3%. And if you work the probabilities, smaller average loss versus the larger average gain over thousands of trading sessions, what you will get, inevitably, is account growth. And that's what compounding looks like in practice. It's not home runs and grand slams, it's getting on base while managing risk. Risk management, I know, is not sexy. People don't like to talk about it. They're going to talk about their huge payouts and the grand slams. That's what gets people interested. But, the truth is, trading is really all about managing risk and position size and working probabilities in a very boring way. All right, so here's where the liquidity trap set up compounds better than a lot of other types of strategies. The win rate's pretty darn good because you're entering after confirmation, not based on prediction. Think about it this way. Have you ever watched financial entertainment television? You know all of the ones that are out there. They're always talking about targets. What is your target for fill in the blank stock? And they'll give a price. But here's a problem. Trading is not about a target. It's the journey to the target. And if the journey to the target presents too much risk, that's not a trade. Target's only one of three pieces. Entry, stop, and target. And when you start thinking that way, the risk reward becomes asymmetric because the stop is relatively tight. We know the point of validity and the movement post trap is typically pretty sharp. Like any good setup, this repeats on a regular basis. Maybe not daily, but pretty often. Because institutions need liquidity every single session, you'll see this play out across trade after trade, whether it be futures, whether it be forex, whether that be stocks. And that's a really cool thing to know. But please remember, no setup triggers every single day in the same way. So flat is a position. Traders who follow this process, the ones that I've taught, the ones who build real consistency with discipline, precision, and patience, they stop looking for a better strategy. They started to build on the confidence of that type of mindset and then they find different types of setups on different time frames, but they apply the same mindset. So this is a really cool setup to anchor yourself with and start building commitment to the process of risk management and patience. And that's where these traders use the same levels that I'm teaching you here, same entry rules, same 2 to 3% risk, and they do it session after session, week after week, month after month. And that's not about being lucky. That's not a lucky streak. That's not a once-in-a-lifetime trade that I know a lot of people want, but that's like thinking the lottery is a career, right? What we want is a repeatable edge, and a repeatable edge applied with discipline and patience is the only thing that compounds into something real, trade by trade, managing risk, session by session. And when you start looking at that year over year over year, you'll look back and realize now you're growing your account. So, here's what the liquidity trap strategy comes down to. Institution, they need retail orders to fill theirs. They engineer traps at key levels every single day because they know, by the way, institutions know what's popular out in trading land. They know certain patterns are very, very popular. These are people, too. They're on social media. They can see what retail traders are tripping over and what strategies that they love. They know what these levels are, and they can see size. So, remember, they're engineering these based on very repeatable, predictable levels that most retail traders are sitting at. So, our job is not to avoid these levels. Our job is to read these levels and make sure we're not the sheeple sitting there, but that we identify where the trap is forming. We wait for the sweep, wait for the confirmation, and we enter with the patience and the precision. Sniper entries. One setup, waiting for our precise pitch. That's what an edge is, and that's the strategy that has helped me year over year over the last four decades help me compound my account. It's not the setup itself. It's the mentality of risk and reward and patience that's compounded. Find a strategy that will help you build that muscle, and then that muscle's what's going to help you lift or use every other strategy that you're going to learn as a trader. Got to start somewhere. So, here's what I'd like you to understand before you trade this. Knowing the setup is not the same as executing it under pressure. Demo trading is great. Back testing is cool. Replay mode is awesome. Everything in you is going to be at a heightened state of all sorts of dopamine, chemicals, nervousness. I, by the way, I still get a little bit of a butterfly feeling every time I enter a trade even after all these decades because I respect the risk that markets can present to my hard-earned money. So, in the next video, I'm going to show you exactly how to build the mental framework that helps keep you disciplined at the moment where it matters most, the entries. Go watch that now, and I'll see you there.

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