How I'd Trade $4 Into $2,000 In Only 5 Days — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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How I'd Trade $4 Into $2,000 In Only 5 Days

Riley Coleman · watch on YouTube ↗
Analysed 01 Aug 2026, 03:16 PM IST
★★★★☆ 4.0 / 5
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Heads up: this strategy was originally created for the US stock market. We applied the exact same logic to Indian stocks & indices and the backtest completed successfully — every result below is on Indian market data.

Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)

  • Strong per-trade edge: +0.31R expectancy across 15,263 trades
  • Convex payoff 3.0 — winners far bigger than losers
  • Only 33% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
  • 5 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2022, 2025) — the edge is regime-dependent
  • Max drawdown -26% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

FuturesIntradaySwing Volume

Claims it makes (quotes pulled from the transcript)

  • “You only need like a 30 or 40% win rate if you're getting two or three times your risk because you're making a lot more money when you win versus when you lose.”

Verdict

Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: US S&P 500 micro-futures day trading: identify support/resistance zones on 15-min chart, wait for unhealthy move (fair-value-gap spike), confirm downtrend initiation (lower lows/highs), enter on 1-min Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 15,263 trades, win 33%, payoff 3.03, expectancy +0.31R/trade (avg +1.59%/trade).

This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Regime-dependent — positive in only 44% of years.

Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.

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🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)

Tracking since 2026-07-06 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.

Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)

Return+115.5%
CAGR+10.2%
Max drawdown-26.1%
Trades383 · 120 won
₹200,000 → ₹430,947  ·  2018-07-09 → 2026-06-08
201820192020202120222023202420252026
-6%+14%+57%+14%+5%+18%+2%-1%-9%

Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)

YearTradesWin %ExpectancyAvg return / trade
201876120% -0.50R -3.34%
2019154529% -0.04R -0.13%
2020202144% +0.85R +6.47%
2021199137% +0.46R +2.57%
2022194128% -0.07R -0.64%
2023236045% +1.26R +5.27%
2024205528% +0.07R +0.04%
2025175728% -0.09R -0.72%
202683223% -0.31R -1.48%

Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)

#StockTradesWin%Avg/tradeBestTotal2026
1 ████████ 10550% +16.9% +124% +1780% +195%
2 ████████ 8647% +8.5% +104% +729% +187%
3 ████████ 9352% +26.1% +181% +2430% +184%
4 ████████ 8531% +2.9% +52% +249% +143%
5 ████████ 8740% +8.0% +125% +696% +85%
6 ████████ 8135% +3.2% +101% +260% +71%
7 ████████ 10749% +8.0% +59% +852% +69%
8 ABB free peek 10434% +2.2% +68% +229% +60%
9 ████████ 11537% +5.3% +61% +607% +59%
10 ████████ 11238% +4.3% +65% +486% +50%
11 ████████ 3027% -2.1% +22% -64% +37%
12 ████████ 10642% +3.7% +66% +394% +31%
13 ████████ 5540% +5.9% +70% +325% +29%
14 ████████ 12736% +0.7% +32% +88% +15%
15 ████████ 11534% +2.0% +50% +231% +10%
16 ████████ 11637% +1.7% +61% +198% +7%
17 ████████ 9646% +3.8% +52% +363% +5%
18 ████████ 11438% +1.1% +42% +121% +5%
19 ████████ 9338% +0.9% +31% +86% +4%
20 ████████ 10627% -1.8% +29% -190% +4%
21 ████████ 10830% +0.6% +37% +63% -53%
22 ████████ 7831% +1.8% +60% +139% -50%
23 ████████ 10630% +1.9% +106% +203% -45%
24 ████████ 11029% -0.3% +36% -37% -41%
25 ████████ 9630% -1.3% +34% -124% -36%
26 ████████ 8935% +0.8% +40% +67% -34%
27 ████████ 10630% +1.7% +86% +175% -34%
28 ████████ 12038% +3.5% +83% +424% -34%
29 ████████ 8520% -2.5% +26% -211% -33%
30 ████████ 11031% -0.3% +49% -37% -33%
You can see the numbers — see the names. Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel. The worst stock in this table returned -211% under these exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.

Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)

IndexTradesWin%Expectancy (R/trade)Avg return/trade
NIFTY19835% +0.12R +0.07%
BANKNIFTY17336% +0.28R +0.83%
Full transcript (4054 words)
Check out this trade right here. I'm up over $5,000 on it with a simple, repeatable strategy that I execute every day. But this is something you can start doing with just $4 and slowly scale. I started with this myself, making under $100 per trade and slowly scaling up over the years to now making over $5,000 in a single trade. It's the easiest way for new traders to become consistently profitable as fast as possible. Over the years, I've discovered a simple principle and built a whole strategy around it. It completely changed my trading and other people's trading as well. Every time I tried to learn a new strategy, add more indicators, or level up with something new, I actually made less money. Trading feels like it should be complicated. And as humans, we love to make things complicated. But that's exactly what sabotages most traders. The traders who struggle the longest are usually the ones bouncing from strategy to strategy, trying everything and thinking that the more you learn, the more profitable you will become. But this is not the case with trading. The turning point for me was when I stopped trying to master the market and focused on one simple money-making pattern and repeat it every single day. The same execution, same checklist, and the same setup. It's so stupid simple, it seems like it shouldn't work. I stopped caring about all the other moves the market was making where I could have made money. And for the first time ever, I started actually becoming confident consistently in my own trading. And the best part is you can actually start doing this with a really small account, risking less than $50 per trade, and scale over time to where I am now, risking $1,500 per trade, making over $5,000 in a single trade. And I'm going to continue to scale up from there. And it doesn't require sitting at the charts all day. Most days I actively watch the markets 45 to 60 minutes and then I'm done. So in this video, I'm going to show you exactly how the strategy works, how to repeat it daily, and how to scale it the right way so you can go from trading a small account to creating a trading career. So here's the strategy. Every single morning, I open up my charts to the S&P 500 futures. The first thing I'm looking for isn't an entry, it's location. I'm going to the 15-minute chart and marking out key areas of support and resistance. These are the zones where the market has reacted before, where buyers and sellers have already stepped in, and where price is most likely to reverse again. This gives me the big picture bias. And once I've mapped that out, I dropped down to a one minute chart. And this is where most traders go wrong. Where I went wrong, actually, they start scanning for every potential move, every reversal, every continuation, or every breakout. They don't want to miss out on any possible money that could be made that day. I don't do that. I wait for four specific patterns to line up, which together make up my fivestep entry checklist. If those criteria aren't met, I don't trade. If the market doesn't fit the checklist, I shut down for the day and go do something else. That's what makes this powerful. It removes decision fatigue. It removes emotion and it removes that self- sabotage. It's simple. It's rulebased and it takes 45 to 60 minutes a day and it fits into real life. You can go do this with a full-time job. So, before I walk you through the stepby-step process of how I find and execute these trades yourself with a real example, we need to talk about how to trade and scale your account the right way. First off, I am trading the futures markets instead of trading something like options, forex, or crypto. I found it way simpler to trade what's called futures. You can start with an extremely low amount of risk or a small account because you're actually what trading what's called a micro futures contracts, giving you a leverage similar to options without the complexity involved that comes with trading options. And also, you don't need a lot of money in your account to day trade. It has the leverage of options, but the simplicity of trading shares or stocks. If you buy, it goes up, you make money. And if you sell and it goes down, you make money. It keeps trading simple, but allows you to start with a really small account. A platform that works perfectly for this is called Ninja Trader. You can start demo trading, which I always recommend doing first when learning trading or a new platform. This allows you to practice reading the market and trading. I'll leave a link below for you to get started with that as I think it's the best futures platform in my opinion. I've used it for over 5 years at this point myself. It's extremely powerful for trading. Now, let me show you that trade where I made over $5,000 in just 15 minutes in the morning using this exact step process I execute every day so you can learn it yourself and start to scale your own account. So, the first thing I do every morning is I look at a 15-minute chart of the S&P 500 futures. This is the main asset I trade every morning and I want to see on a 15-minute chart because I'm looking for trades on a one minute chart. What is the big picture? This is important for any strategy you do is what is the bias and the current mode the market is in that you're looking at right now. The market is in pretty choppy volatile back and forth with some moves down, some big moves up and then over the last couple days it's kind of more in a sideways range. And so keeping that in mind going into trading and looking for, okay, what is the future of the market going to do? I find it way easier to assume that okay, well the market is likely to continue what it's done in the past. So most likely because the market's been kind of choppy here, it makes it likely that it will continue to do that. And so first thing I want to do though is I want to look at the major resistance levels and support levels in the market. Where are the big extremes, you know, based off of it touching those areas multiple times and selling off and also the extreme low down here. And then as well, I'll kind of zoom in to look at the last couple days and think, okay, well, there's kind of a bottom here. There's some swings here. The market's currently trading right here. And so, I'm going to think, okay, I'm going to draw levels based off of the overnight lows here, the overnight and pre-est highs. And also something to consider is also a trend line. Like this looks like it could be having a upwards resistance trend line. That is something that is totally normal as well. Um the market kind of was having one right here as it kind of is in this opening wedge pattern. And so this helps me know where to look for key reversals. As the market shoots up into this level, I want to see a potential reversal because it's coming to an area where there's a resistance zone and a resistance trend line. If you want a little more information on how I specifically draw these more in depth, I'll leave a link to a video up here. And another thing that I look at every morning is the pre-market news. I use a website called Forex Factory. It's totally free and all I do is I set it to US only and then it shows you in the morning what news is coming in because you want to know every day is there high impact news coming in that I need to pay attention to low impact or medium impact. Right now the market is very volatile from a lot of time the news in the Middle East and anytime the president speaks these are massive things that can move the market and so you want to know what is happening that day going into trading. So you don't have any surprises that happen. And so once all that happens, I essentially want to watch the market open and see how it reacts to this upwards trend or this level and look for a reversal. I found it way simpler over time to look for just reversals because again it simplified things and reversals actually give you really good riskreward ratios. What I like to go for is a 1:3 or 1:2 riskreward ratios. This allows your win rate to not be that high. You only need like a 30 or 40% win rate if you're getting two or three times your risk because you're making a lot more money when you win versus when you lose. And so over time, if the market is coming up to a resistance zone here and I think we're going to sell off, I can risk something like let's say if I enter in right here and I put my stop loss up here, I can risk $100 right here. And then if I target all the way down here, I could get $300 from that trade. And so that would be a really good favorable riskreward ratio and something that you can consistently make money from over time if your accuracy is good. That is why I really like looking for reversal trades because the riskreward ratio is very very profitable. You want the math to be in your favor when it comes to trading. Having something like a one:1 riskreward ratio or even worse where you're risking $100 to make 50. That means your win rate has to be extremely high. You have to be extremely accurate with every trade and every trade has to work out well because if you're at a negative riskreward ratio and you risk something like $100 to make 50, every lose you take takes two wins to make up. And mentally that is really hard to deal with. And I speak from experience on that one. And so the first thing when I go to a one minute chart is I want to see the market open. And so the market opens at 9:30 Eastern Standard Time and I want to see it come up to one of those big picture levels. And so here is that resistance zone that I was looking at. And so the market has already come up to that level. And so that's step one checked off. And then next, what I want to see is how it reacts to this level because just because something moves up into a level doesn't mean that it's it's going to immediately reverse. A lot of the times these levels can break and the market continues higher because the trend is so strong. And so that's why I have built this checklist to try and essentially what it does is it helps you easily identify when something is likely to actually reverse off of a level versus continue at that level. And so once it comes up to the level, that's the first thing, the most important thing honestly is the big picture. What does it do when it comes up to one of these levels? I want to see it come up to this resistance line and I want to see it potentially hit that and start to reverse and as well bringing in the bigger picture is because we're in kind of a sideways choppy range. Well, I would expect to us if we're going to continue doing that as we come up here, we're probably going to sell off and reverse just because it's staying in the methodical mode that the market's in. I like to treat the market that it's going to continue what it's going to do 80% of the time. That's just a good number to go off of. Most of the time it's going to do what it was previously doing. And so the next kind of step that I'm looking for is what I like to call an unhealthy move. A super easy way to look at that is if I pull up a fiveminute chart of the S&P 500 futures, I have something called a fair value gap indicator. It's it's basically creating these green boxes. And so what it does is it helps you identify when a hu unhealthy move happens. Essentially, the indicator just kind of goes off of basically how big a candlestick is compared to the previous candlesticks. It essentially makes this gap between these candles. And what that does though is an unhealthy move. How it works is the market essentially gets overextended. And so it has to reverse that move. And you can see it essentially gives back most of this green box that it created. And so this is what I like to look for as it comes up. It produces unhealthy move signals and then you get a snapback reversal. That doesn't mean that necessarily the uptrend is over. You can see here the uptrend after it had that snapback, it continued with the big picture trend to the upside, but that doesn't mean you can't profit from a snapback like this. and then also potentially look for you can see there's little red boxes meaning there was overextension to the downside that there's potential to capture this move up as well. So that's why I like trading reversals. And if we look at this market right here, you can see here is an unhealthy move as well is this was a big spike up. And so what I'd like to see is if this gets going, we can give this move all the way back down to here, which is a great potential and a target. And then it could bounce here or it could continue to the downside. And so that's kind of step two in my checklist. That's the catalyst that I think makes it likely for a very clean reversal to happen in a big way. And usually these work out better to the downside versus the long side because when the market sells off, it sells off very very quickly. And volatility is good for us because if it sells off and then continues to sell off, you can get a very big trade very quickly, which we'll start to see in a minute. Now, the third thing that I like to see is well, essentially I'm betting that if I'm looking for a reversal here, I'm betting that this uptrend is starting to end and I'm betting that it's going to become a downtrend. And so, that's very, very hard to do. And so, I like to wait until the market has actually shown me that that downtrend has started. And so, if we look at a super easy way to do that is just look at the swings, right? There's a swing high, swing low, swing high, swing low, swing high, swing low, swing high, swing low potentially. This one's still forming, but just looking at that, you know, a uptrend makes higher highs and higher lows. And then when a downtrend starts, well, a downtrend is signified by lower lows and lower highs. And so I would want to see this essentially start to do that. And so this right here is a great initial signal that it's made a lower low than this one back here. And this selling pressure with these big candlesticks is also a good sign. But to me, that's not enough confirmation. I want to actually see the market make an attempt to continue higher here because what that shows me is the market can have a little bit bigger of a pullback here in a strong uptrend and continue higher. And so I want to see essentially it attempts to continue higher and that continuation actually fail and I want to get in below if it makes essentially a new load because to me that's confirmation from here and confirmation from here. And so if I kind of zoom in a little bit to see how this plays out, you can see that's right there. This is a good attempt. This big bullish candlestick is the market kind of attempting to continue higher. But then right immediately right after it, boom, we have a big red candlestick that is showing almost instantaneous rejection of this attempt to continue higher. And so to me, I'm thinking, okay, this looks really good. Multiple things are checked off. Now I have to think about how I want to enter into a trade in real time, right? Because this is happening in real time, and I want to get in when it kind of breaks this low. Now, in this trade specifically, because if you also look at this, the market was a little choppy right here, I elected to actually wait for this to break the low and to see if there's going to be a little bit of a pullback and then I'll put my order in right below that. And I enter in on a stop market order. What it essentially does is it jumps you in right as the market hits that exact price. Basically, it inputs a market order versus a limit order. And so this is exactly what I wanted to see is the market essentially pushed lower had this big rejection candlestick. So you know we trapped people to the highs trapped potentially this could turn into a trap to the lows and shoot us higher. But I want to see well if it does that but that fails and breaks this. I think that's great confirmation that we're going to continue to the downside. And so I have my stop order there with three contracts on the S&P 500 futures. Essentially, another thing I'm looking at here is I'm looking at, okay, I just drew this little minor support zone. Are we bouncing off of this little zone, but I think once we break that, it opens up the door to give this whole unhealthy move back up. And it can happen very, very quickly. It's a big void in the market in terms of volume and support that will happen very quickly. And then, so I put my stop loss up here. I'm risking about $1,500 on this trade. And so I'm looking for either down here as an initial target. That would be around 2x. And then if we continue lower, I like to kind of have a fluid trailing stop because sometimes these trades can really get going quickly. And so we had kind of a big spike right here and I actually move my stop loss down a little bit cuz I thought, well, if this spike reverses up to here, I'm fine getting out of the trade. Essentially, I'm taking a little risk off the table, managing based on what I see there. I've moved my stop loss now to break even thinking that okay if this turns into a little double bottom right here. I actually want to get out because in a way we have already given up most of this move and that is an initial soft target for me and I'm thinking that well I if this is really going to get going it's going to happen quickly again because talking about on the short side shorts happen very quickly and generally the best trades happen very quickly and so there once it makes a new low I kind of like to move my stop with the swings um and I'm just kind of looking to see okay how does this trend play out there's kind of this downtrend now now in play. We are almost perfectly at this spot where I would expect us to start potentially bouncing as a minor support. The more major support is down here. Actually, if I pull up kind of that big picture again, as this trade is going, it's kind of here, right? It's breaking here. And I'm looking to see, okay, well, this is that previous lows of the market. Are we going to potentially hit those overnight lows? And that's the next support level. And so I think if we break this, it opens the door to down here. And so a lot of times it's kind of you got to be patient. You know, I like to give the market some wiggle room if I think it has the potential to have a big move. And so once it kind of starts to, you can see here, these are one minute candlesticks as I kind of zoom through this, it starts to accelerate pretty pretty fast. And so for my management style as a beginner and someone new to this strategy, I would highly suggest trying to just go for two or three fixed profit target like a a fixed profit target of two times your risk or three times your risk because fluidly managing a a trade like this with real money in real time is difficult. It takes time and I have different ways that I do it based on what the market does. And so right now, because we've got starting to accelerate so fast, I'm moving my stop loss, every time a candlestick closes, I move it above the high because each one of these candlesticks is like $1,000. That's huge. And so, as much as I would love to continue to stay in this, just like over here with an unhealthy move on the way up, how it can rapidly reverse, this is now becoming an unhealthy move on the downside. And so if I give it too much wiggle room, like if I had my stop all the way up here to where waiting for it to break this trend line, well, if it reverses super quickly up here, I would be giving back a crazy like half of my trade in profits. And you don't want to do that. I like to once it kind of gets down to 3x, which is kind of right here. This is 3x my profit. I like to tighten up my trailing stop because that's where I'm I'm happy with taking a tradeoff, but I also like to if this is just going to keep printing candlesticks lower, I am happy to stay in it as well. But based on as well, you don't want to always think about your riskreward. You want to be thinking about, okay, where am I in the move of the market? And if we look at kind of the bigger picture here, well, this is at the lows here, right? This is this support zone. So, I'm expecting that it to reverse here. It could continue down to this next one, but it could also bounce here and mess around for a while before it continues lower. And I don't want to risk the profits I already have. And so, essentially from there, my stop loss, you know, it it looks like it's going to keep going, but I get knocked out here at about three times my risk for about $5,000. And it's a great trade. Now, I've got a free PDF guide that you can download that has more detailed on this five-step entry checklist. You can get it via this QR code or the link in the description. It's completely free. Now, if you want to learn more about futures and my strategy, check out this video right here. It'll go into a ton of detail with trade examples and how to grow your account with futures.

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