Chetan Panchamia Shares His GOLDEN Trap Setup For Trading Success | Trading Ki Baat
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Verdict
Real option-buying backtest. Decoded entry: an opening-range breakout on NIFTY 10-min bars → buy the ATM weekly CE (long) / PE (short), stop 50% / target 60% of premium, square-off by 15:15. Priced on real 1-minute NIFTY option premiums (GFDL, 2015–2026 — every tick of theta, IV crush and gamma is inside these prices), real charges and spread.
1,945 trades on ₹1L: net -372.6% over 12 years (-31.1%/yr, loses money), win 44%, payoff 1.12 (avg win ₹2,857 / avg loss ₹-2,553), max drawdown -397%, worst trade ₹-17,281. 2015: ₹-6,586. 2016: ₹-33,524. 2017: ₹-33,356. 2018: ₹-6,016. 2019: ₹-7,006. 2020: ₹-46,359. 2021: ₹-39,193. 2022: ₹-7,106. 2023: ₹-63,019. 2024: ₹+35,701. 2025: ₹-69,197. 2026: ₹-96,897.
Option buying is convex — low win-rates are normal; the question is whether winners outrun the premium bleed. Backtested on 12 years of minute-level premium data (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist; constant 65-unit lot); entries tested intraday as taught. Flagged for human review.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, on real NIFTY option premiums — 1 lot, ₹1L)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Net P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 67 | 45% | ₹-6,586 |
| 2016 | 126 | 40% | ₹-33,524 |
| 2017 | 153 | 39% | ₹-33,356 |
| 2018 | 146 | 45% | ₹-6,016 |
| 2019 | 148 | 47% | ₹-7,006 |
| 2020 | 164 | 44% | ₹-46,359 |
| 2021 | 247 | 43% | ₹-39,193 |
| 2022 | 194 | 51% | ₹-7,106 |
| 2023 | 190 | 41% | ₹-63,019 |
| 2024 | 160 | 46% | ₹+35,701 |
| 2025 | 244 | 43% | ₹-69,197 |
| 2026 | 106 | 42% | ₹-96,897 |
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