This Boring Strategy Made Me $53,478 In A Month — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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This Boring Strategy Made Me $53,478 In A Month

Craig Percoco · watch on YouTube ↗
Analysed 01 Aug 2026, 02:44 PM IST
★★★☆☆ 3.0 / 5
🌐
Heads up: this strategy was originally created for the crypto market. We applied the exact same logic to Indian stocks & indices and the backtest completed successfully — every result below is on Indian market data.

Why 3.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)

  • A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.22R across 240 trades

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

IntradaySwing Volume

Verdict

Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Fair-value-gap (FVG) zone-buying strategy: identify break-of-structure + change-of-character on higher timeframe, mark FVG zones, enter on pullback to FVG midpoint with 1:3–1:4 risk-reward ratio on 1- Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 240 trades, win 47%, payoff 1.52, expectancy +0.22R/trade (avg +0.29%/trade).

This is a real edge. Reasonably consistent (88% of years positive).

Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.

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🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)

Tracking since 2026-07-22 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.

Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)

Return+18.3%
CAGR+2.4%
Max drawdown-6.4%
Trades233 · 110 won
₹200,000 → ₹236,516  ·  2019-04-18 → 2026-06-08
20192020202120222023202420252026
+1%+5%+4%+2%+3%+1%+1%+1%

Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)

YearTradesWin %ExpectancyAvg return / trade
20191953% +0.45R +0.51%
20204448% +0.31R +0.66%
20214146% +0.25R +0.35%
20223546% -0.06R +0.11%
20233057% +0.53R +0.40%
20243139% +0.02R -0.01%
20252544% +0.14R +0.02%
20261540% +0.09R +0.08%

Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 117 stocks, incl. 2026)

#StockTradesWin%Avg/tradeBestTotal2026
1 ████████ 425% +0.0% +6% +0% +6%
2 ████████ 450% +1.2% +6% +5% +5%
3 ████████ 1100% +2.6% +3% +3% +3%
4 ████████ 1100% +3.0% +3% +3% +3%
5 ████████ 475% +0.9% +2% +3% +2%
6 ████████ 425% -0.7% +2% -3% +1%
7 ████████ 3100% +4.5% +5% +13% +0%
8 JINDALSTEL free peek 475% +1.9% +5% +8% +0%
9 ████████ 2100% +3.8% +4% +8% +0%
10 ████████ 2100% +3.9% +4% +8% +0%
11 ████████ 2100% +3.7% +4% +7% +0%
12 ████████ 2100% +3.0% +3% +6% +0%
13 ████████ 2100% +2.9% +3% +6% +0%
14 ████████ 1100% +6.2% +6% +6% +0%
15 ████████ 450% +1.2% +7% +5% +0%
16 ████████ 560% +1.0% +3% +5% +0%
17 ████████ 250% +2.3% +6% +5% +0%
18 ████████ 560% +1.0% +3% +5% +0%
19 ████████ 450% +1.1% +7% +5% +0%
20 ████████ 250% +2.7% +8% +5% +0%
21 ████████ 20% -3.0% +-3% -6% -3%
22 ████████ 520% -1.0% +3% -5% -2%
23 ████████ 10% -2.1% +-2% -2% -2%
24 ████████ 425% +0.0% +5% +0% -2%
25 ████████ 250% -0.1% +2% +0% -2%
26 ████████ 250% +0.4% +3% +1% -2%
27 ████████ 250% +2.0% +6% +4% -2%
28 ████████ 540% +0.3% +5% +1% -1%
29 ████████ 30% -2.9% +-3% -9% +0%
30 ████████ 10% -5.6% +-6% -6% +0%
You can see the numbers — see the names. Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel. The worst stock in this table returned -9% under these exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.

Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Full transcript (4984 words)
Have you ever sat down to learn a trading strategy, followed every single step, and somehow still walked away feeling like you have no idea what you're supposed to actually do? Or maybe you click on a YouTube video that promises to give you a full strategy, but by the end of it, somehow you're still confused on what you're actually supposed to do. If you've been bouncing from strategy to strategy, trying to find something that actually makes sense, something that you can understand, repeat, and build confidence with, then this video is exactly what you need. Because here's the truth. Most trading strategies are more complicated than they need to be. And the more complicated a strategy is, the harder it's going to be to learn and the harder it's going to be to make it repeatable, which is the number one important thing when you're developing into a trader. So today, I'm going to walk you through a strategy that's built around one simple concept, market structure and momentum. No complicated indicators or overengineered strategies, and most importantly, no guesswork. What I'm going to show you has clear steps so you can prove to yourself that you know it works. My name's Craig Percoo. I've been trading for over 9 years now. Since 2017, I've been able to start with 25,000 and I've scaled my trading up well into the seven figures. And I'm blessed to say that the last month of my trading was my best month of my career and I was able to make over $57,000 in a month. And a lot of this was done live in front of my trading team. So, through documenting my entire trading career from the highs and the lows, if I've learned anything, it's this. Trading needs to be simple, repeatable, and most importantly [music] scalable. And I'm going to show you exactly how I do this in today's video. So, by the end of this, you're going to have a full step-by-step process to analyze the market, find setups, and be able to execute start to finish without guessing. But first, I need to set the stage. The whole strategy that I've used for my entire career is based around one simple thing, which is market structure and momentum. If we can figure out these two things, we're able to see who's in control of the market and to be able to follow along with the institutional level money. And all we're trying to do is figure out who's in control, where the market is likely to go, and then positioning ourselves into that. Okay? And once you look at the market from this perspective, it's going to make all of the randomness and confusion go away and you're going to have a very clear picture of how to actually look at the markets to then be able to start taking trades with the strategy that I'm going to show to you. So firstly, market structure. When price moves, it moves in trends. We can have a bullish trend where price is gradually making higher highs and higher lows. And we can tell that we're in an uptrend by looking for something called break of structures. Now, breakup structures are these dotted line levels where we see price breaking above the previous high after a low is put in. On the other side, if we look at a bearish trend, the same is true. If price is generally moving down and putting in lower lows and lower highs, every time price breaks to a fresh low, that is a break of structure. When we see break of structures, we can tell that buyers are in control and the demand is outweighing the supply causing the market to move up. Now, this is the important part. The next thing that I look for is something called a change of character. Okay? And it's exactly what it sounds like. If we have this wellestablished uptrend, as soon as we have price produce a high and then break past one of the recent higher lows, that is indicating to us that the buyers are no longer in control. And when we break that lower level, there is potential for the sellers to be in control and the market to continue moving down. Same thing is true on a bearish trend if price is moving down. If we have a new high that is higher than the previous lower high, that's indicating to us that the buyers are back in control and we could potentially be breaking out of that downtrend. If we start to look at the market from this perspective, we can very quickly start to tell from a zoomed out perspective who's in control of the markets and where we want to be positioning ourselves. But that's obviously just one piece of the pie. The next piece is looking at something called momentum. Now the market is made up of buyers and sellers. Whether it's institutions retail banks algorithms all of this collective decision-m is either driving the market higher when people are willing to pay more for something driving the buying and the selling offers higher or if people are no longer willing to buy something at a high price and sellers are trying to offload to another buyer that drives the buying and selling auction lower which drives the price down. Okay, it's really easy to forget that the market is just an auction and all we're trying to do is be able to read this effectively, but looking at it from this perspective is very helpful. Okay, and with these trends, we can look at the low and high points of up or down trends to be able to figure out where price will likely come down to and continue or break that level and retest the opposite side. If we look at this example here and here is where the demand started to outweigh the supply and price continued moving up. So when price tests that area now we can start to look for either price to respect that level and continue moving higher or in the case that it breaks it like here for price to come down test the opposite side of that one more time before continuing to move in the opposite direction. So we can use it to anticipate where market will continue or where it's likely to flip directions. And both of these are going to be important information to be able to take a trading approach and figure out where we think the market will move for that period of time. But that's only one piece of the puzzle. The next is figuring out areas of momentum so we can be more precise and observant based off of increases in market participation in certain areas to figure out where the big players are sitting and how we can position ourselves into them. Which brings me to my favorite way of looking at momentum which is something called a fair value gap. Now a fair value gap is a series of three candles on a chart. So if this is our chart moving where we have 1, two, three candles, price is generally moving up. A bullish fair value gap is where the high point of the first candle in a three candle sequence doesn't overlap with the low wick of the third candle and that leaves a space called a fair value gap. Same thing is true in a bearish example. We have a series of three candles where the low wick of the first candle doesn't overlap with the high wick of the third candle. Once again leaving that gap behind. Now why is this important? A lot of people misunderstand what fair value gaps are. Basically we have to look at it from a market participation standpoint. Here if we look at buyers and sellers interacting with the market that is adding something called volume can be buyers or sellers just market participation. What happens with these fair value gaps or what these fair value gaps show is an area where there is an increase of only one side of the bidding market pushing the market drastically through a space. Okay. So a lot of people think that these areas are actually areas of higher volume which is not true. It's an area where the market didn't really get an opportunity to determine the fair value of that area. So when you get a momentum move, say a push up like what we're seeing here, as soon as that momentum dies, price is going to seek equilibrium and it's going to retest that area to see whether or not that momentum is justified and will continue moving higher or if it's going to fail that level and break down. What tends to happen is price will push into these areas. We can look at this for example before continuing to make moves up. Once again, we break out, price retraces into this area and then ends up moving away from it. comes back into it, moves away from it, comes into this area, moves away from it. So, how we're going to look at this is with an app called Trading View. This is going to allow us to do all of our charting and to look at this information to add this analysis so we can start to set up trade positions. Okay, so I'm going to do this example on just a chart of Bitcoin. So, these are the tools that you're going to need to use on Trading View to be able to do this type of analysis. Okay, first we're going to use this trend line tool here. This is where we can hold down shift, click on a point, drag over, and that can show us our break of structure levels. You'll see we have a break of structure here. This is a high that's put in. We get the break over that high. Here's another break of structure. Chart puts in another high. That's another break of structure. Another break of structure right here. You'll notice here after our last high that was put in, this is where the market finally closes below that most recent low point. That's going to give us our first change of character level. Thirdly, if we look at the overall trend structure, we'll see we have lows along here, which once we have two of these areas, you'll see price responded off of this, attempted to break up, pushed underneath, rejected on the opposite side, and then continue to push down lower. Now, this isn't going to be a one-stop allix solution, or else trading would be way too easy. So, there's going to be multiple levels that we can look at. You can see there's also from this level to this level once price failed to push higher and finally rejected this area. This is the last level on the chart right after a change of character before price started moving in the down direction which you can see then produced the next break of structure break of structure and so on. But what this is going to allow us to do is figure out with the break of structures that the buyers are in control until we have that change with the change of character which can give us important areas like this to be able to predict where the start of this next trend would be so that we can then aim to trade in that direction. As traders, all we're trying to do is figure out areas where there's a higher probability of price either moving up or down and finding those key areas so that then we can start to build trades around it. So, we're going to revisit these concepts in a second, but now that we understand how and why the market is moving, before we go any further, I need to explain to you something called higher timeframe analysis. Basically, with higher time frame analysis, what we're aiming to do is look at a very zoomed out broad picture of the market or whatever we're trading to be able to figure out the general direction that we're going so that then we can find hot spots or key points on that chart and then zoom in to find very precise entries so that we can play the move on the broader picture with very very precise accurate entries. So, think of it like a map on a road trip. If we're planning a 10-hour drive, we want to look at the overall route first, decide on that. But when we're making decisions on which streets to take a right or a left on, we need to be very zoomed in knowing that that whole route is going to take us from point A to point B so that we can then focus on which streets to turn on that's aligned with our overall path. And that's what we're going to be doing with our higher time frame analysis by finding the general ideas and then taking very very accurate entries. So here's how I approach my higher time frame analysis. Ultimately, I want to start on a 15minute time frame. So I can look at 2 to 3 days of total movement. And then what I'm looking to do is be able to execute on a one minute chart based off of what I'm seeing on the 15. So ideally I want them side by side to each other. But first we're going to start off with just looking at the 15. Then we're going to go down to the 1 minute where we can actually execute trades. And I'm going to show you exactly how I do that. So if we go over to Trading View, there's two things that we're going to need to add to our chart. One is something called the foundation indicator, which you're going to see when I turn on these dotted lines are going to separate the days. So now I'm not just looking at a blank chart trying to guess the days. I can visually look at how price is changing between those days. And that's also going to show me where the New York stock market sessions are opening where it's going to bring most of the market movement. So here in my chart, you'll see we're starting on our 15minute time frame. And I'm trading on a Solana chart. So just a cryptocurrency with good volume that I like to trade. Okay. So you'll see we have 1 2 and then we're leading into our third day price action. All right. So it's about 9:30 on this chart. That's where I'm starting my trading sessions. So I consider that to be the start of the day. Okay. So immediately here's how we can analyze our chart. Firstly, we can tell that the market is generally moving up. So that's our uptrend that we're establishing. And you'll see we kind of have this small downtrend leading into our new uptrend. Right? So we'll consider this a change of character to the upside, which is effectively like a break of structure. So I can click on my trend line tool again, hold down shift, click on this high, drag over. This is going to show me my break of structure. If I use that same trend line tool, I can now click along my lows and click from this low to this low. And now we know this is that lower range of that trend and the buyers are in control. So buyers are in control, the trend is moving up. We have this lower range that we can look at. Okay. So the third thing we want to look for is the fair value gap. Now you can see the market typically trades for example between a range somewhat this size. So really what I want to do is look in this general area for the next day. And all I'm really trying to do is taking into consideration where the next fair value gaps are on my chart. So I'm going to scroll in a little bit to this most recent move here. And I'm just going to use this tool here, this rectangle tool. And all I'm going to do is start from the beginning and start marking out where all of my fair value gaps are. So you can see we have a fair value gap here. Another gap right here. A gap here. A gap here. So now let's once again check on what we know to be true. We changed character and continued moving higher. We have a break of structure over this high. So buyers are in control. We have our lower range here and then we have all of our areas where there was high levels of momentum where fair value could be seek before continuing to move up higher. So these are now going to be my targets to look for responses off of before moving on to our actual entry model. But now instead of just looking at a random chart, we have a very good idea of what to generally look for. I want to look for pullbacks into this area and then snipe entries into them and allow them to play out. And now what I want to do is get a little bit more fine-tuned again. So I'm going to take another trend level along these lows. And now we can see the lower range of this current uptrend. So once again, our overall move is moving up this way. But we have a current trend with a low level being respected here and here, which until broken, I'm not assuming that the market is going to continue moving down. I'm not guessing where it's going to go. Now I know until this level breaks, I don't have any indication or reason to think the market should continue moving down. Say price did make a move underneath say this low. Until it breaks this low, this can be another area for me to want to play for the market to continue moving higher. Okay, so in summary, we're going to be looking for trend direction, our market structures, fair value gaps as targets for response. Then we need to execute a simple entry model. Okay, so here is how my entry model works. This is what we're going to be using to get those sniper entries on our overall move. Okay, so step one, what I'm looking for after our 9:30 open or whatever session you want to trade. Doesn't have to be 9:30, but that's what I do. What I'm waiting for is on a 1 minute time frame, I'm waiting for a change of character. So just what we looked at before on the bigger picture, we're looking for a higher high after a lower low. Step number two, I'm looking for a fair value gap to be produced inside that change of character where that was the area that market change structure broke out of that level and is leaving behind a fair value gap. Step number three, I'm waiting for a pullback after a change of character into the midpoint. So, the 50% point of that fair value gap box. That's where I'm going to be entering into the market, setting my stop loss underneath the last low on that trend and targeting three to four times what I'm risking here. So, as traders, for example, when we're entering here, we have a certain amount that we're looking to risk if we're wrong about our trade and a certain amount we're trying to make in profit if we're right. This is called our riskreward ratio. What makes trading a lot more simple as you're learning is treating this risk amount as -1R and however much we're looking to make 3 to 4 as positive 3 to 4R. This makes trading from a really confusing math game into just a game of negative 1 and positive 3 4 5. However, and our goal is is to get more positive Rs than negative. And that's going to allow us to be profitable over time. It really simplifies this down. Now, the way we're going to do this and the way we want to set up our positions is to take the amount of money we want to risk on any given trade, whether it's a percentage of our account or a fixed dollar [music] amount. A safe rule of thumb is to always start really, really small. And if you're using capital to risk between 1 and 2% of your entire account. If we're using a $500 account, we can use between $5 and $10 of risk. So, let's say we want to use $10 of risk. We're going to take 10 and we're going to take our entry price where we're looking into buy based off of our analysis which let's say is 86.12 and where we want to exit the trade if we're wrong which in this case is 85.94. We're going to subtract those two values and take 10 and divide it by this amount which is going to give us the total dollar amount that we're looking to risk. Now there's a really easy way to do this on Trading View. I'll show you that but I wanted to explain how the math is actually being calculated. So now we've started on our 15-minute chart. We have all of the areas we're going to be looking for. Now I'm going to move over to my 1 minute and we're going to see if we have a setup that follows our entry model. And now we have all of the things that we're going to want to look for as the market is opening. So let's see. As the market is opening, price is pushing down. So now we have two of these breakup structures. You can see we have this high level where we have this small downtrend here. Price comes back down to respond off of that level. makes a low, starts to push up, responds off of one of our 15minute higher time frame fair value gaps, and now produces step one, which is our change of character. So, we produce the low, and now we're closing higher than this previous swing point. So, this is where I'm going to take my box tool, draw my fair value gap, and if we flip back to our 15minute time frame, you'll see this gap was filled and immediately price pushed away from it. So, now we have reason to believe that this level is going to be respected. And if price is going to continue to move higher in this direction, we want to be able to be in on this move and to be able to ride it up along the way. All right, so we have our change of character. We have our fair value gap. This is where I want to set up my position now. So right at this midpoint, I can set up my stop loss underneath this current move. Place my takeprofit at say 1 to four. This is where position sizing is going to come into play. So all I have to do when I'm building these positions is click into this tool right here and click either long or short position. So, you can click on this point and position where you want to enter, where you want to have your stop loss, and where you want to have your target. If you double click on this on Trading View, and click on inputs, this is where you can put in your account size. Say we have a $1,000 account. We want to risk $50 per trade. That's going to show us the exact amount of units that I need to buy at this price in order to risk exactly that $50. If you want to practice actually trading on this, you can click on this tab on Trading View right here. That's going to allow you to practice actually buying and selling. So here now I'm going to input 192 units. I'm going to click and drag my limit right here. Now I can place my takeprofit like this by clicking and dragging. Set my stop loss here and then select buy. You'll see price pushes up, pulls back down into that area and you'll see because this was a fair value gap. There was very little volume or market participation at that point because there wasn't a lot of people on the sell side of this area. Price comes in next time it tests it. You can see this is an abnormal amount of buying pressure because the market had just broken and continued indicating to us that this is going to be a perfect area to enter in a trade. Had it have just come straight through, it wouldn't have been our area. But this is a high probability area if the market is going to continue in our direction to be able to enter a trade. Okay, so we're in our trade. Price continues. Okay, now I can just set and forget this trade and let it play out naturally by itself. And you'll see as I play this forward, price comes up and gets me out for four times what I was risking, which in this case is a $200 profit. Okay. And by the way, this is the exact setup that I took live with my private team, and I was able to make $12,000 off of this trade. Okay. So, here's a pro tip. When you start out doing this, considering we need 192 units just to risk $50, if we take the cost of our entry, which is 7362, * 192 units, which is how much we need to buy in at, that's theoretically going to cost us $14,000. Now, I don't know about you guys, but when I was first starting trading, I didn't have $14,000 kicking around in an account. So there are ways around this and there's two main ways to get access to capital while you're starting off with your trading and this is what I use to this day. Okay. And there's something that we can use called leverage. Okay. So you'll see if we wanted to enter in at our entry price of 7362 at 192 units. Once again that cost is $14,42. Now keep in mind this is still risking only $50. If we increase our leverage to say 10x leverage now that makes our requirement $1,400. And once again, our risk still $50. If I increase this to 25x leverage, risk still $50, but now the position cost is actually going to cost me $580 that I need in the account. So, you can actually be able to take these trades. Okay. The other option is effectively to use something called a prop firm where they'll actually give you say 25K, 50K, 100K to trade with and all you have to do is prove yourself that you're able to hit a profit target before having a draw down and you can trade with their capital. Okay? You can go in the description. I put resources down there on what I use. So, now we know how to actually look at the markets, how to look at our specific trading window to find hot spots, how to find precise entries with an entry model, how to position size, and how to get access to capital. Let's take a look at an example of how I put all this together on a trade that I took just yesterday where I was able to make $6,200. I'm going to show you how all this ties together. Okay. So, you can see first thing that I'm doing is figuring out the price is pulling into this higher time frame fair value and starting to reject off of it. Then you can see on my 1 minute time frame, I'm marking out that lower range. I have my breaks of structures here. Price fails, creates my change of character, comes up back into my fair value gap. That's where I set up my entry. I set up a fixed 1 to4. You can see I'm entered in on my position. And you can see that's the exact area that price went. I'm up 4700 5,6400 and then the position gets closed out and you can see I'm celebrating but I was able to figure out where to look in the market, wait for a response, set my strategy up, use proper position sizing, and then play a perfect move in the market. And all I'm looking to do is follow the general move of the market and execute this system. So now what you can do is go on to Trading View, watch this video back a few times, follow this process, keep track of how you do over time, and now you have a clean video where you can walk away, practice implementing something, and overall looking at the market the way I've learned over the past 9 years of trading. Okay, check out the resources in the description. We do morning analysis of the areas we're looking for on our Discord. Okay, if you want all these tools and more in the description, you can check that out. You can check out our private team in education. But until next time guys, I will see you all in the next

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