Backtesting Trader Mike's High win rate strategy

But this seems like a very promising uh one to one risk-to-reward strategy. Um you know I got 80% win rate when I was testing this which is phenomenal. All right. So yeah, hope you all are having a good week. Um getting close to the end of the month April. I'm excited to share this new strategy with you guys. Um Trader Mike um maybe somebody you've heard of, maybe not. Um he's got decent following on YouTube. He's more active on X. um he's got um like 100 100 plus um followers on on X and uh yeah, another self-proclaimed uh millionaire trader. Um he's shared in this video the only one to one riskreward strategy you'll ever need. Um he that he made 24K in the month of March, which was like a bad month for him. And then more recently on X, he said like a week ago, he was up like over six figures on the month so far. So, um, obviously a lot of, uh, claims and, you know, as usual, we want to put the strategy to the test and see if it actually works or not. Um, you know, without having any specific bias, but we're trying to, you know, highlight things that, um, seem promising for you guys. So, um, I put the strategy PDF in the chat for those of you, um, that are watching this recording later. It'll be linked in the description. U,, but yeah, let's talk about this Trader Mike failed to strategy. Um, so we did Omar Aog's um, EVP EBP engulfing bar play um, strategy like a month ago and this one does have a little bit of similarities. Um, Trader Mike likes to use numbers to describe his candles instead of like, you know, engulfing or anything like that. Um, and see he has this like uh, number three candle that he basically is defined as um, a candle that sweeps both sides of the previous candle and then like closes strongly in one direction. I think like technically, that's why I put a little asterisk here. I think technically he requires it to close like past like the full wick to be like a true number three candle uh where it engulfves like pretty much the entire candle. Basically, it sweeps it on both sides and closes strongly uh past one side. But when I was doing some testing, if we only look for this very very specific number three, um we're not going to have a lot of trades. Um so I decided to add a little asterisk here for our number threes. We're going to use the Omar Gogg um kind of close definition where as long as long as it sweeps both sides and then um you know at least closes past the body. That's going to be good enough. Um the general gist of this is when you see these candle formations, it gives you a high probability target that price is likely going to tag in the near future and that's kind of where the edge is defined. Um we have a very clear target that we're going to be using and then obviously can get a little more specific how we're going to get there. Um so that's number three. Um hopefully that's clear enough. Sweeps both sides and at least closes past the body. That's really all you got to know. U for the number three and the failed two. Um and I've got a bunch of examples. I'll try and zoom in a little bit so I can show you guys a little better. Um but just conceptually um if you think about a failed two really all it is is a candle that like sweeps a previous candle's low in this case and just fails to close past the low. So it's like it's it's like u it's failing to displace is basically the proper terminology. You'll see this a lot with people who talk about like inducements. Um it kind of sweeps a level but just kind of fails to displace past it. And oftent times when you see this pattern uh whether it's a timebased liquidity level um or even just the previous candle higher low. If you see a candle sweep a level but fail to close past it that can often mean okay it's not quite ready to keep going that direction. There's probably a reversal going to happen. And so that's the whole concept of these failed twos. I have several highlighted on the chart so we'll just kind of look through them. So, this one candle right here I've highlighted, it swept the previous candle's low, failed to close below it, and obviously didn't take out the the high in the other side. So, it was a failed two, not a not a number three. The candle right after it swept the high, failed to close past the high and didn't sweep the low. So, this is a failed two to the downside. And then we have a failed to to the upside here. It swept this candle's low, but failed to close below it. Um, and obviously like the the contrast is like this big decisive candle. It swept the low and closed very strongly below it. And that like gives you more confidence um that it's going to be like a strong number two versus a failed number two essentially. A couple more examples. This candle swept the high, failed to close past it. You saw a little bit of retracement after that. Uh, next candle swept this candle's low, failed to close below that low. You saw like a nice push to the upside. And so, uh, more often than not, when you see these failed twos, it often means, okay, price isn't quite ready to keep going in that direction. We're probably expecting a little bit of reversal. Maybe it's not, you know, a huge reversal, but at least a marginal one. Um, and that's kind of the second piece of the puzzle for the strategy. And then lastly, um, he's going to be using, um, kind of a low time frame shift for his specific entry model. And for him specifically, he uses um there has to be like a market structure break with like a strong close and then at least some sort of hair value gap along the way. That's like kind of his his simple definition. So, a couple examples bearish and bullish here where you see a market structure break uh once price closes um past the level, that's when it's like confirmed. And as long as there there's a fair value gap kind of along the way, that's his like low time frame shift definition. So, we're going to be using all three of these concepts to build this strategy. And I'll show you guys kind of on the next slide, but let me know if you guys have any questions or if I need to clarify anything. Um, feel free to feel free to pause because there are a few layers to this strategy. Um, we're going to be using three different time frames. Um, for that video specifically, he used the 1 hour time frame to kind of set up the stage for that high time frame target. With the number three candles, he looked for failed twos on the 15-minut time frame. And then after you after the failed three failed two, he looked for the low time frame shifts on the one minute. So we're kind of going to be kind of progressively going through the time frames um and checking off the boxes. Okay, does this mean does this me? And you know before we have a proper entry and that means we're going to have like a little lower trade frequency with the strategy, but it also should be a higher win rate because we're being a bit more selective. Instead of taking every single failed two that shows up, we have kind of a a process that we're going through. Um and so he tested this on ES in the video that he showed. So indices obviously for one one minute execution. Um it's probably not going to be as good with Forex unless you have like a very low spread broker. But he said you know you could also test this on other time frames maybe 4 hour for the high time frame 1 hour for the failed twos and then 5 minute for execution. You could you could test the same concept just with a little higher time frame if you wanted as well. Uh for indices obviously we're going to be focusing on um kind of New York session. He doesn't take any trades before like 9:45. Um, so waits for that first 15 minutes after New York open and then you can trade the whole session at at the end of the after you get a lot of analytics. Maybe you don't need to trade the whole session. But we'll kind of see what we have uh for today. So very simply, um, like I said, it's it's three-step process. Number one, we need that that high time frame, number three candle on the 1 hour time frame. So I've got it visualized here below. We we have to see that kind of uh number three candle on a high time frame before we're interested in anything. And that gives us our target. Okay, like we have an expectation that price is going to come up here. And then after that point, we want to look for a failed two on the 15-minute time frame. I put like M maybe middle time frame on uh here. You want to look for like M15 failed two that you know swept this low but failed to close below it. And then I I do want to say um specifically um if this target uh gets hit before you see the failed two, then there's just no trade. Um you could consider taking those. I think like when we did the Omar GOG strategy sometimes like that level got hit and we would still see that it it did continue after that. Um so you could consider taking them but it's going to be a lot lower probability or at least you want to you know use tags to analyze those. Um but in general we're going to try and focus on only taking the failed twos um if that target has not yet been hit yet because that's going to be um our our primary draw. And then after you have the high time frame number three, the 15-minute failed two, you're going to go down to the one minute and look for that low time frame shift with the market structure break and fair value gap. And you're simply going to be using a 1:1 uh with this this model. It's kind of interesting the way he does it. Well, it'll be a little easy to see when we're in effect replay, but he uses the distance from the entry to the target to then set his stop-loss distance. Um just at a simple one to one. He's also not um big on precision. He says as long as you, you know, know where you're going more often than not, you don't have to be super precise with the best entry, the, you know, tightest stop loss. Um, so he gives himself quite a bit of wiggle room on these trades and that's why, um, he uses one to ones. If you look at his X, he's big about, uh, using one to one risk toward. And, uh, we haven't done that many one:1 strategy. So, I thought it'd be a good one for you guys to test, especially for those of you that really, um, it's really important for you to have a high win rate. So, um, in terms of take profit, stop loss, I kind of kind of already went over it. Um the only thing I didn't mention is um from my testing like if you're already like super close to the takerit by the time this shift comes into play like it's almost not worth taking it. So uh what I was saying like if you measure from kind of where the pullback ended on that shift to the target you want to at least make sure you're in like premium um or discount if you're if you're longing instead of just taking the trade like immediately um right next to the target. So, um, every now and then we might need to use a limit order to make sure we're, um, trading from the right premium or discount, but most of the time you'll just kind of enter a market entry after that shift. Um, there are a few other rules and considerations. Let me go through like a visual example real quick first. Um, kind of show you guys what this actually looks like on the charts. So, like I said, high time frame, EBP candle here. I I said EBP. Maybe I'll um, update this just say to say a number three candle. Um, this is a number three candle. And then uh, so that's our target. We know we're looking for shorts and then we want to wait for a failed two which sweeps the high but fails to close past it. And we can see, okay, now we're looking for a potential short to the downside. You will notice um for those of you that are watching closely, there was a failed two right here, but there wasn't a low time frame shift before we had like a a strong strong number two after that. So, this is like one of the nuances we'll talk about. Um if the low time frame shift doesn't happen um before kind of the failed two is invalidated then you need to wait for another failed two which is what happened in this case. Um so little nuance uh so failed two and then here's our low time for entry one minute time frame. We're simply looking for a market structure break uh close below previous low strong candle close with some fair value gaps and like I said very large stop loss in this case. Um it's not always this large. Um sometimes it's it's kind of relative pretty close to this like swing high. Um but it's measured based on the distance to the takerit. So a couple other nuances um before we get into it and this will be again better to you know show you guys as we get into it. But like I mentioned if um the target gets hit uh yeah I already mentioned this. If uh the low time shift low time frame shift doesn't happen before like a strong M15 candle shows up next wait for the next failed two candle. um it's probably not going to be best um to take a trade if you're like immediately trading into an opposing M15 candle. Um I don't know if I can visualize this or not. So like you see how we had an M15 candle right here. Um if we were, you know, I don't know, if we were looking for a long and we had a failed two down here, but we were like immediately trading up into this bearish M15 candle, it's probably going to be a little lower probability. Um so that's what I was saying. you may want to you could use tags um to confirm, but it seems like those are going to be a little lower probability unless you're just targeting um that fair value gap for your takerit. Um probably going to be best is just a stop after one loss. I mean, it's a it's already a relatively low trade frequency uh strategy and it should have a high win rate. So, if the first trade doesn't work, um you could you could tag second attempts, but it's probably going to be best to just stop after one loss for the strategy. And uh similarly to the fair value gap against kind of being lower probability is probably also higher probability if the failed two is like is delivering from a supporting fair value gap. I went over this concept in the recent uh Toto capital optimization video. Um if you're kind of wondering what that's about. Um that's another helpful confluence. And then a couple things with discretion here at the bottom. Like I I try to make these strategies as mechanical as possible for you guys. But ultimately like with this uh with these targets there is room for a little discretion that probably will improve your results a little bit if you are comfortable with it. So say that we have a um a target. We'll just go go this example for example. So we're looking for a short here but instead of just pulling back a little bit maybe we pulled back like all the way back above this high before we had a fail too. That's like a a pretty big distance to come back to this target. It may be better to just go for like an interim uh like base hit along the way. um maybe like a another fair value gap or just like a kind of you know interim higher low. Um instead of going for that entire move and having like a huge stop loss for the one to one. Um it's a little something that can take a little discretion. Um and we'll we'll kind of hopefully go through some examples like where we see that big pullback. Um but that's something I was noticing. Um it may be better to just go for like a little base hit, you know, of part of that move instead of catching the whole thing. Um, and then same thing, um, in when we did Omar Gog's video, I mentioned to you guys, uh, sometimes that target got hit like pretty immediately before there was our entry. Um, but sometimes it still it still worked out. So, similarly to this, like if you guys, um, want to use tags to maybe say like target already hit or uh, whatever tag makes sense to you, you could still see if like using the same ter frame, you know, same bias framework. Okay, we had a a type number three candle for shorts here. Even if that targets get gets hit, I think we're still probably going to be trending trading shorter after. Um you could still, you know, use the same framework and try to see if it works um to take additional trades. Um especially if there's like another likely target just beyond um you know, a session higher low or something like that. But couple things of discretion. If you don't want to deal with either of these, it's totally fine. Um you could just trade the very simple mechanical rules. it's going to cover like I don't know 80 70 80% of the trades anyways. Um but yeah, very simple trade checklist and with that we'll go ahead and dive in FX replay so we can actually see what this looks like. So um like we usually do, somebody give me a random my dog's making a guest appearance. Uh somebody give me a random date in the last I don't know four years. We'll pick like a totally random point in time. All right, January 5th, 2024. And we'll just go, you know, as far as we can. So, start of 2024. We'll get the chart set up. I have this fair value gap indicator by FX Replay. Um I I unchecked the mitigate boxes. So, even if it gets filled, I can still see um the fair value gaps. And I like to just make them white or gray. You can still see them uh pretty clearly. Um and then I have the session indicator New York just to kind of highlight when New York session is. Um, it's not going to be that important, but I think I just have it set like 9 to 9 to 4 New York time, just so I can kind of loosely see when New York session is because obviously if there's type number three candles outside of New York session, I don't really care about them. So, that's everything we have on our chart. Um, and yeah, we'll go ahead and start start testing. So, we're already pretty much at the end of the day here. I'll use the go-to session. Okay, we may have one here. Let's see how this candle closes. Okay, cool. So, we have our first number three candle here. uh it swept the previous candles low, swept the other side and closed very strongly past the body. So, this is going to be our our target um that we're going to be expecting with a pretty high probability that price should come up to this level either this session or or you know shortly after. We obviously have swept some other levels and we have failed to displace kind of other levels. So, maybe a little bit of conflicting um price action going on, but just specifically with our model, let's focus on just one hour time frame. He said, you know, if you're trading one minute charts, like 1 hour time frame is good enough uh for a high time frame. So, number one, we have our kind of high time frame bias and check. So, we'll see if we can find a failed two. There we go. So, this is our 15-minut time frame. Now, we have swept this previous candle's low, but failed to close past it. So, this is our failed two now. So, we have our number one or number two. And now, we're going to see was there a type three shift? Um, if not, we need to wait for one. So, it looks like we formed an interim high right here. So, we do have, if I look my MSB, we do have an MSB with a strong candle closing above this kind of previous high. And we also made some verified gaps along the way. So, we have all three things that we need for this. And now, we just got to make sure, okay, are we in premium and discount? Can we take a market entry versus limit? So, for the premium discount, like just to make sure you're not taking trades like too close to the target. Literally just like use the uh parallel channel tool is what I like to use. Uh from the high to that swing low and just make sure if you're taking a long, you're entering entering from discount. If you're taking short, making make sure you're entering from premium. If not, you can just use limit order um at that level. Um but yeah, we are in discount. So, we have everything we need for this. So, we'll set the um trade kind of at the end of that M15 candle. We'll target the draw for the takerit and then literally for the stop loss we're simply just modifying this so that we have a simple one to one. So giving oursel a lot of room could pull back quite a bit um you know it could even take this low but we have a lot of wiggle room um to see if we can you know hit that target without um you know anything messing us up. And then this is again where I said um you maybe use some confluences. Um we are this failed two was delivering from some M15 fair value gaps. So um you know maybe these are a little higher probability. You could you could use tags to see like if uh failed twos that come from supporting fair value gaps if they're high probability or not. Um I think I have those tags available so when we place the trade um we can we can go and use those. Um, I'm going to use entry trigger one um for like the market entries. Entry trigger two will be pretty uncommon, but if we if we need to use a limit order every now and then, I'll update later. And then I think I do have the fair value gap tag. So, we'll just say fair value gap plus. We are trading from a fair value gap. Um, so we got the trade entered. No trade management. Simply just let it play out and we'll see what happens to the first trade. Let it play out. Getting close to our take profits. Back to entry. Okay, it's this one's taking quite a while. All right, finally hit our TP. So, um this this is actually a great example. I'm glad it came first. Um, I've seen like enough traders to this point, um, and enough trades that have like kind of front ran, um, your take-profit level that maybe another like pro tip for this since our stop losses are already like pretty generous is, you know, maybe you can figure out uh, what how much, you know, maybe you want to go off just like the um, kind of order block um, from the from the previous high or even just like if you you know, we were 807.25. Uh you could even just like go like one point off of the high. Um and you know just target like you know close enough to the high instead of the full high. Um I think it will probably be a little easier for you psychologically in case there are trades like this that front. Um if you kind of make your takeprofit a little more conservative than um than the true level because oftent times this happens where it get get its front end it maybe does eventually hit it. Um, but I think you'll save yourself a little gray hairs if you uh do a little more conservative. But either way, got a nice win. Just took a while to play out. And that's our first trade. That's our first nice win. So, uh, let me know if you guys had any questions. But that's kind of the the bread and the butter of this strategy is, you know, most trades will look like that. Um, and we'll see if we can find another one. Um, we have a little bit of time left in the trading window, but we probably won't have another um type three within the same uh period. It's It's pretty rare for there to be like two trades in the same session. So, we'll just go to the next session. Um, okay. So, this is interesting. We have a bearish number three candle off the back of some news. We had CPI, um, which often produces these big candles where we swept both sides of the previous candle, closed very strongly, have not yet taken this low. Um, so potential opportunity down here to target these lows. We've pulled back quite a bit. Um, but we can now look to see if we can find a failed failed number. Yeah, failed too, which we have right there. But this is a kind of the other uh case that I mentioned where uh we probably don't want to trade if we're trading into opposing M15. So fair value gaps can be can support the trade but also can make them lower probability. So we have this M15 fair value gap that we were kind of trading immediately into. Even if um we have a M1 shift here, which I think we do. Uh we had a slight low here that we closed strongly below. So market structure break, we have a fair value gap. So we do have all the things needed for this strategy. Um but I think because we're trading into right into an M15 uh fair value gap kind of against our trade. Um I think it's going to be a little lower probability. Let me just make sure I I dragged that out. Yeah, this is the target's pretty far away. So, if we were to trade this normally with our takerit all the way down there, we would have to kind of cut through that M15 fairway gap and just makes it a little lower probability like we just have more resistance on this trade. So, um this could be one if you want to get the data like if if instead of just, you know, saying okay, he said it's probably low probability. I just want to take them like you can validate it. You can take the trades and we'll we'll do that. We'll take this trade as an entry trigger number one. And you can just use a tag like FVG minus. Um I think this one actually had both. Um so we are trading into a conflicting fair value gap, but we also kind of delivered from a bearish fair value gap. So this trade actually has both. Um so this would be a case you could you could track both confluences and see um you know over time is it is it even worth taking it when there's a fair value gap against it? Or maybe in this case since there's kind of both u maybe it could still work out. Um but you can use tags. It's super helpful. If you guys haven't already saw it, um I really recommend taking a look at the Toto Capital optimization video I did recently. Um it gives a lot of good insights on how to optimize your edges. So um we'll give this one a shot or second trade. See what happens. Ended up working out. Um so this one, like I said, I think um given that we were delivering from that high time frame fair gap probably, you know, offset at least a little bit that fair value gap. We did obviously have a little bit of a reaction to it, but you know, cut through it pretty strongly. So, this is really where I just recommend using tags. Um, and ultimately the data will tell you um what to take or what to what not to um based on kind of the the way you're able to record. So, yeah, two trades, two wins so far. Um it is supposed to be a high win rate strategy. Um so, hopefully we can continue to catch some wins. Um probably won't have any more trades this session. We'll go to the next session. And somebody just asked, can I use this strategy on currency pairs? Um I do think he has some people in that trade forex in his group. um in some of his videos he said like obviously like M1 time frame for execution isn't best isn't great for a lot of forex pairs unless you have like super super low spreads and so um what you could do for a potential variation is instead of using 1 hour 15 minute and and 1 minute maybe you could use 4 hour 1 hour and 5 minutes uh for your three time frames with all the same concepts um and see if it'll work okay so we really pushed away pushed away from it so we'll just look for a fresh uh number three could potentially still have this get from the previous day. We did still have this uh number three that wasn't hit yet. Um I don't think it was was hit like it was like equal high. So I think this is still like a decent target, but um usually the most most recent number three is going to be a little better. So uh let's see if we have anything. We might have a target to the downside that was already hit. Yeah. So this was a number three candle, this bearish candle, but the target's already been hit, so we can't take that one. So, um maybe a little uh unorthodox, but let's go ahead and try and trade back to back to these highs. See if we can find a failed two along the way. Um just so we have a trade to take. Um so, I'll let the kind of first one minute play out. And actually, now that I just said that, we now have a more a fresh um target to the downside. We This candle swept the high, swept the low, and closed below the body. So, this is like a more recent um number three target. So, I'll probably prioritize that over this old one. Um, so we have a a low down here that based on this candle formation, uh, we would expect a decent odds that there's continuation to the downside. So before that target gets hit, let's see if we can find a fail to on the 15-minut time frame. U, we now have formed fairy gap against. So this trade's probably a little lower probability now. And, um, you know, we did we also had a failed two for for upside. So, uh, the target I mentioned earlier is looks like it's going to play out. Um, yeah, we ended up hitting that. So, um, I think either one could have worked today, but yeah, we did have conflicting targets in play. This is the case. So, this would be a good case. Um, I wanted to show you guys an example where we pull back a lot when we still have the target in play. So, let's see if we find a failed to. Um, there we go. So, we've pulled back quite a ways u from this uh 1 hour candle, even past the previous um high of that candle. And so if our target's all the way down here, um even if we have a M1 shift, like that's a pretty big move to try and catch. So instead of trying to catch the whole thing, let's see like what would be reasonable for like a base hit in this case. And again, we do have fair value gaps against this trade. So this is going to be one to tag with that like fair value gap minus. Um but let's see if we can catch something reasonable. We do need a fair value gap formation. Um we did not form a fair value gap, a bearish fairy gap yet. So, we do not have our M15 shift yet. There we go. So, we have some verified gaps. Uh, we just need to see a strong closure past low now for the market structure break. Um, not quite yet. There you go. So, I'm waiting for like a strong close for the market structure uh shift. We we did uh wick past this low, but we didn't close below it. And now we have kind of a proper MSB here. So we have our uh our you know low time frame shift. We have fairway gap. We have the MSB with a strong closure. We are obviously deep in premium right now relative um to the targets. You know pretty deeply in premium. So we're fine to take a market entry at this point. But this is where like I said maybe um instead of going all the way down here for this target, maybe we just look for like one of these in lows um something that's you know a little more maybe realistic um for just like a short-term base hit. So, um, even if we're just targeting this kind of interim low down here. Um, you know, you could select either one of these. This is again, this is where a little discretion is going to come into play. I'll drag my uh stop loss up a little bit. So, we have the one one right about there. I could go for this second low if I wanted a little a little broader stop loss. Um, just do that just to give us a little more wiggle room. Um, I think both of these either one of these would be fine for kind of a simpler takeprofit. So, I'll tag this um with uh it's still it's still a market entry. It's entry trigger one, but um actually maybe I'll say like entry trigger three just so I have like a way to differentiate um that I'm going for a different takeprofit. You could also use like a um a tag like um base hit take profit or um some way to like you know so that your brain knows okay this tra this was a trade that I was going for like um a level before that you know number three target essentially. Um, I just like to use different in triggers um to keep it simple, but whatever makes sense to you. And then again, we do want to use that fair value gap against tag because there were um 15-minute fairway gaps against us for this trade. Let's just double check M15. Make sure we're not missing anything again. Yeah, fair value gaps against us. So, potentially a little lower probability. Not really delivering from many fair value gaps. Um, so yeah, I think that's all we need for this. So, we'll tag in and see what happens. There you go. And so, we'll let this play out. I, you know, I'm curious now. Would it have come all the way to that level? Um, we'll play 15 minutes. It's a little faster. Yes, it eventually did later in the day. So, um it's honestly probably like a point of preference. Like these targets are high enough probability that um they, you know, more often than not do get hit. But if you're someone that's trading M1 and you don't want to watch one minute candles for like three hours, it may be better just to go for like the interim uh take profits if you have like a very very deep pullback like this. So um again, it's definitely a little more discretionary and um it's going to be a matter of preference if you're fine just kind of setting and forgetting. Okay, I entered the trade. I'll set some alerts at the levels and you know, whatever happens happens. or if you're someone that gets very anxious watching the charts, uh maybe you want to go for the base hits, you want to, you know, use a little more conservative takeprofit instead of using the targets. Um so definitely a little a couple options with this um that you can play around with. Um so yeah, let's go back to our 1 hour time frame and see if we can find another potential entry. I will also say like again, this is a little more commentary for you guys. Um, these failed twos I think are if you were if you were to take one thing away from this entire stream, I really do think that these failed twos specifically are probably like the most powerful concept. Um, because this is like a really interesting way to read price um to give have a good idea of what's happening. And even if this specific um model that has, you know, three different time frames, you know, too much going on, um if if even if this model isn't for you, I think there's a lot of things you could do with these failed twos, especially if you have another way to determine bias. Like looking for these failed twos, I think, is a is a great confirmation to potentially like help you map out um if the trade is likely to continue in your direction or not. Um, also potentially could be a way to, you know, take profits. If you're trailing a stop-loss or something, you see a failed two against your trade, that could be like a good reason to exit. Um, so I think these fail twos are are a really cool concept and I think it's a great thing to start looking and see if you see them on your charts. Um, and kind of see, do they play out more often than not, then maybe there's a model there that you guys can can play around with in addition to what I've been testing. So, um, enough enough commentary. Let's go back to more examples. Uh, so I want to look for another type three candle. We probably won't have one this session. So, let's go to the next session. We do have one right here. So, we swept both high and low of this previous candle and closed um strong it. We did not take this um low yet. So, this is uh pretty close to open. Um so, we may hit this very quickly. We obviously do have 1 hour fair value gaps against us in this case, but um it's at least like, you know, after the target would be hit. So, we can see if we have um our criteria. I bet this is going to just instantly nuke down to that target. That's often what happens um at market open. We didn't have any failed twos. Um we've we went exactly to the level, but still no failed twos yet. So, yeah, the example where we had it had the target, it was hit um just didn't quite meet our entry criteria. Um, I think if this um kind of first if there was a candle at at 9:30 to 9:45 that gave you that failed two, then you could market enter like right after that. Um, but I I don't think Trader Mike usually takes trades um the first 15 minutes. Um, so we'll try and avoid those um unless there's like a really really good potential setup. So see if we can find another type three, which this is probably close enough. So again, this is on ES specifically. There are going to be instances where it makes equal lows. It doesn't technically sweep the level and um that's potentially also something to tag, but um I think it's, you know, good enough probably um to give this a shot. So, we we kind of took out both sides of this previous candle, closed pretty strongly, and we're also delivering from these 1 hour of eye gaps. So, that gives me a little more confidence that this is probably a little more likely to play out. So now we can look for our M15 failed too, which we have right there. So we swept this previous candle's lows and failed to close below it. So decent odds that we'll have some upside. Have we had our M1 shift yet? It looks like we probably did. We had an MSB right here. We strongly closed past the sign. We are we made some fair gaps along the way. So last thing is just making sure we're in discount for a long, which we are. So if if uh the candles were like up here um by the time the entry happened, we could probably just use a limit order like at this midpoint um to catch the move, but we are in discount. So I think it's fine to just mark it enter at this point looking for the target. Again, you could do a little more conservative take profit if you wanted maybe just the body. Um or if you want a mechanical definition just like one point off the high. Um if you wanted to um if you're worried about getting front run or if you see that happen a lot like obviously that's something when you test too you can see like okay it doesn't get front run that much just use the target. Um or man it gets front run a lot. Um I'm going to just get out when I can. Um we'll use like a little more conservative uh take profit on this one and then simple one to one right there. Um what tags do we need to use in this case? Um on the M15 there is really nothing. Um, we do have like a I don't know a high time frame fair value gap delivery. So, since we're using three different time frames in this case, there's there's opportunities to use those kind of fair value gap tags on all three time frames. If you really wanted to get crazy with your tags, you could say like high time frame, fair value gap plus um in this case to indicate we have a high time frame against with us, but also low time frame fair gap against. like we are trading into an M1 fair value gap and like if you if you really like take the time to use those tags um you'll get a lot of good data and see like okay M1 fairway gaps don't matter the high time frame ones do or vice versa maybe these low time frame fairway gaps are really important um but yeah we'll we'll uh just take this um I don't think I have a high time frame fair gap tag available um but like I said you could use it if you wanted to so let's see what happens this one boom nice takeprofit um and again my uh worrisome. If you're a worrisome person, you got out one minute earlier than someone who held to the target. So, honestly, you know, if you see enough of these and they pretty much all go to the target or stop loss, it's probably fine to just use um the target. We want to look for that specific number three candle as our first criteria. Kind of close on that one. Okay, there we go. So, this one may hit our target before we get entered, but we'll see if we can find that type two shift. swept the low both sides of the candle and closed pretty strongly. This is a pretty clear draw. Probably will get hit pretty much immediately. Yeah. So, targets already been hit by a couple ticks. And again, this is um where I mentioned in the PDF um I don't know if you're really confident in the directional bias. Um like this is obviously like very very bullish price action. Um, if you're very confident that it's probably going to keep going even though that target's gotten hit, you could still potentially look for the same price signature. Um, we did have a failed failed two here. We swept the low, but failed to close below. This is actually this is actually um it's not a it's not a number three because it didn't close past the body, but it did sweep both sides. Um, so it's not quite it's like a failed two on both sides, if that makes sense. So, it's it's not quite what we want to see. Um, let's see if we can find like a better failed two. There you go. So, if you're really confident in the bias, uh, we do have a conflicting fairy gap here that could make it a little lower probability, but you could potentially still use the same framework and see like, okay, is it worth taking these trades even after the the first target gets hit? Um, if I'm confident in the buy. So, we have swing high here. I got swept have some fairy gaps. We definitely have our low time frame shift. Um, we're definitely in discounts. Fairy gaps. the biggest thing that we're like kind of um you know worried about a little bit. So this is again opportunity if you don't want to try and go for this big target all the way up here. Maybe you just go for um kind of the filling this fairy gap or kind of these highs associated with you could also go for like the midpoints of the fair value gaps. Again this is totally a little bit of discretion for these kind of base hit trades. Um something to play around with. Um but maybe we'll just go for like filling this fair value gap. Um, I don't want to, you know, go for a huge move. I'll place the order. I'll say this is, uh, I think I said like entry trigger three for these if I'm going for like the base hits. Um, and then we have fair value up against technically. Um, and then um, yeah, you would probably also want to use a different tag to say like target already hits. Um, I don't think I have anything like that. Maybe I use like I use like factor one, factor two a lot because I test a lot of models and I need some kind of general tag. So maybe factor one is these like these trades that have already hit the target or something. You can make some notes on what your tags are. Um but we'll take this one. See what happens. We hit the fairway gap. We're rejecting initially and ultimately kind of lost. So yeah, this fair value gap ended up pushing up down. So this is why why I said like I think um midpoint of this fair value gap probably would have been fine. If I use this parallel channel tool, we would have tagged the midpoint of the fair value gap. So, if you're going to target the fair value gap, maybe go for like the midpoint instead of the full thing. Um, so maybe your your stop obviously would have been a little tighter. Um, but you would have been a catch you would have been a catch a win on this one. But I'm really just giving you guys um some options for these um additional if you want like a little higher trade frequency, taking the trades after the targets then hits, going for a little more base hits instead of the full targets. These are just like optional um things you guys can play around. Actually, this one would have been a stop-loss barely before take profit. So, either way, um I think this one would have been a loss. Um so, I'm glad we got a loss. We're not no longer at 100% win rates. Um let's see. Uh yeah, we may be able to find one more example, but I think, you know, hopefully I've shown you guys enough um examples that you at least understand the basic of the strategy. So, I see a couple questions and then um let's see if we can take a look at some analytics. So, I said we literally took five trades, so this is not that meaningful. Um, so we'll combine this with the previous testing I did before. If you guys use a lot of different sessions and you want to combine them, you can come to the strategies tab, add a new strategy. I'll call this trader Mike failed twos. So, I have my strategy created. And now I can go back to my testing tab. And whatever sessions I want to add or combine together, I can just um look for that um trader Mike. I got to scroll through a lot of these kind lot of different strategies. Uh there you go. Trader Mike failed twos for this one. And then same thing for the testing I did a little bit earlier. We'll look for the same strategy. Trader Mike failed twos. So now uh when I come back to the strategies page, if I go to that, there's a lot of trader things, trader mics. I can just click on the analytics and now I can see the combined analytics from at least all the testing I did. Still only 26 trades. So again, I definitely encourage you guys to validate this yourself over 100 200 plus trades, multiple market conditions to confirm um that you're seeing similar promising results before you, you know, put any of your real money uh with this strategy. But this seems like a very promising uh one to one risk-to-reward strategy. Um you know, I get 80% win rate when I was testing this, which is phenomenal. I think that gives you a profit factor of like over it's a little over four. Um so maybe a little overfit. um you know would would hope that maybe in certain market conditions I think I tested like summer of 2023 which honestly like usually a little summer is usually a little like choppy um but it did did really well with that and then January could could be a little more trending. I don't know what the specific market conditions were here but um yeah if you test this over multiple market conditions significant sample size um you'll be able to validate if the strategies actually hold up or not. Um, but yeah, based on the testing I've done so far, like I do think, uh, Trader Mike, um, you know, his strategy does seem pretty promising. And if you're someone that really prefers, uh, high win rate over anything else, like you really just want that validation that you're right more than you're wrong, then going for one and high win rate strategy modesty might be like a good fit for you. And so this could be something you could test out. Um, so, um, I I do see, let me get through the an analytics a little more and then I'll answer, um, some other questions you guys have. Um, but yeah, let's see what insights we have. Again, only 26 trades, so I'm not going to, you know, go through too too deep dive into this. Um, but overall, you know, obviously we had positive expectancy. We had, you know, six win streak, only one loss um, in a row. With that high of a win win win rate, um, you're going to see very low um, loss streaks typically, which is really nice. Um, but on the flip side, you every loss you make, you have to there's not a positive asymmetric risk towards. So, um, you're gonna have to kind of the win rate is going to really what defines your edge. Um, in terms of performance by time, uh, pretty much every hour was profitable. So, it seems like you could potentially trade the whole session. Obviously, the bulk of our profits came those first three hours. So, if you just don't want to be on the charts the full day, you could probably just trade uh, what 9:45 to noon basically. Um, and you could potentially catch probably, I don't know, 70 80% of the profits if you just traded those kind of what's that 3 and 1/2 hours or 2 and 1/2 hours. Um, so that could be perfectly fine. Um, again, bigger sample size will give you like better data on that. And then same thing, I'm not going to, you know, definitively say, um, you know, Fridays aren't are no good. But as you get a large sample size, maybe there are certain days um that you want to just say, "Okay, I don't want to trade that day." Or if uh Wednesdays continue to just absolutely crush, that could be an opportunity for to increase risk if there's certain days or certain times um that really giving you those A+ setups. Um same thing with tags. Um nothing crazy like um three to six R per month. Um but I I do think this is a strategy that since it's a little more selective, um you could potentially filter um test this on, you know, two to four different assets. um potentially and see, okay, this one doesn't have any type three candles. Let me look at this. Okay, this one has a type three candle. Now, let's kind of monitor for that failed two. You could like be monitoring a couple different assets um and potentially look for um multiple multiple assets for this same strategy to potentially increase that uh performance over time, but um yeah, definitely still still profitable um over that period even though it's not a whole lot of trade frequency. So, um draw down obviously like we didn't have hardly any draw downs. not going to see a whole lot of insights from that, but I do want to look at the risk-toreward simulator. Um, it does seem like the one one risk-to-reward was significantly better um than anything else. Um, I think it's probably because the stop losses are pretty generous on these. Um, going for a more aggressive take-profit is probably not the move, but um, I don't have an ETA for you guys, but we are working on a stop-loss simulator. I I'll give you guys a little sneak peek. Um, so this strategy would be a great one for that to see, okay, like these stop losses are massive. Is there opportunity for me to tighten these up a little bit and get, you know, instead of a one, you know, one R on average, maybe I get a 1.2 on average just from using a little more optimal stop loss. So, um, that's coming soon. Um, I'm working on the math and with the team to get that for you guys. Um, but for now, um, if you guys have any optimizations to, um, entries or stop-loss or trade management, um, we've have have tools and things like that for you guys to manually test those in the meantime. Um and then same thing Monte Carlo simulation you could you know project out I only took 20 20 trades or whatever maybe I want to see 100 simulations with 100 trades um to see you know larger sample size and we can kind of project out okay I had 50 win streak and a six loss streak um I think it could handle that um but obviously you you need a larger sample size to get um more more reliable data so um yeah to answer a couple questions so somebody said oh wow you've tested so many strategies I want to know which one's your favorite and which one I use. Um, so those are two great questions. Um, so um, actually I see someone else. I'm going to answer uh, Yeine's question real quick first because it's specific to um, FX Replay using. So you want to use uh, NQ and ES at the same time. Um, if you are in the chart um, I'll just show you real quick how to do that. Um, there's actually I don't know if you guys knew this or not, but if you um maybe you set up your testing with only one asset and you want to also have another asset, you can come in here and um add another asset and save it. You can either do it from like the session here or um if you're in the chart, I'll show you guys how to do it in the chart, too. This is like a pretty new feature um so you guys didn't know about it. Um you can now edit uh which assets are in your sessions, which is pretty nice. You can also click this settings button in the bottom right from your charts and same thing come in here to assets and add in Q. Um, so if you wanted both assets, you could do that. It'll reload the page. Um, because it needs to kind of load in the data for that new asset. But once you have both assets in there, then you can just come up here and pick this multi-chart option. I think it's only available in the paid plans. Um, so if you're on the free plan, you won't be able to use this. I don't think you'll be able to use features on the free plans either. Um, but you can just use this multi chart feature and then you could put NQ on the right and ES on the left. Um, it's how I would do that. And then, um, within that as well, there are some options to like sync the interval you're on, the time, things like that. So, they move a little more in tandem, too. Um, so a little pro tip for you guys, um, if you want to learn how to um, trade or visualize multiple assets at the same time. Um, I'll say this real quick and then let me answer your question um, about strategies. So, if you go to the main website fxrep.com resources tab, there's this trading strategies resource which I've been, you know, working over the last year plus to build this out for you guys. Um, because obviously like you know, trading is a skill just like anything else, but finding a promising strategy and also finding a strategy that's right fit for you um can be, you know, frustrating for a lot of people. They don't know where to start. So, we really wanted to build out this resource for you guys testing strategies just like this that you know may be promising and you can actually start validating and testing yourself. Um, and so, uh, the way we've built this out is you can sort, um, by kind of whatever you want. I think most popular is probably a good one. Like these are, you know, you know, ones that more people have downloaded than others. Some of the, some of it's because that they've been out a little longer obviously than the newer ones. Um, but ICT Unicorn is like, you know, ICT's number one strategy. Matt from Ethics Replay, it's really popular. Um, Burn is a really popular. Forex, like these are all like pretty proven trading strategies. Inventory trend lines. if you really want. Um I actually, you know, use have used trend lines a little bit in the past, too. Quarterly theory, I know Wendy mentioned that. So, a lot of really popular strategies um that you guys can check out. Um so, most popular maybe a good filter you want to apply. And then after that, it's really like what makes sense for me. Am I somebody that likes likes to trade forex? Do I prefer crypto, indices, metals? You know, what assets do I like to trade specifically? Um am I more of a beginner? Have I been trading for a while? Maybe intermediate, advanced are more interesting to me. or if you're new, like you probably want to just go for easy um trading style. This is also like a really important thing to think about um when picking a trading strategy. Um and it's something that I've kind of learned myself through uh through trial and error over time. Um like I've tested a lot of these like M1 scalping strategies and you know have tested a lot in FX3 like wow this is a really good edge but ultimately like when I've tried to trade it live it just hasn't gone well. And I've kind of reflected and been like, "Okay, like I was never good at first person shooters growing up. I grew up on like Mario Bros. and and you know, Nintendo. So, I'm better at like the slower strategy, you know, kind of plan my execution instead of like real fast quick um you know, quick Twitch decision-m. So, intraday and swing trading are a better fit for me. And so, that's a great great thing for you to think about. Um, you know, how much chart time can you like realistically do every day? Um if it's um you know just a short window maybe scalping works or maybe swing trading if you can only dedicate like 30 minutes a day swing trading is probably a little better for you. Um intraday could be okay I can dedicate you know 2 three hours a day maybe I just want to look for intraday strategy. So it's really a matter of what is the best fit for you and then same thing with the sessions. Um if London session for me is like as like 1:00 a.m. So I'm obviously not going to be trading any London strategies unless it's like automated or something. Um, so I'm I'm mostly sticking to New York, but obviously like I have some friends in Australia that New York is like 1 AM for them. So they're they're gonna have a hard time trading New York. So you can really like play around with these filters and see what's the best for you. Um, and so like as you're trying to learn a strategy, if you're just really not getting it at all, that might be a sign that it's probably not a good fit for you. And and then vice versa, if there's a trading concept that you've learned in the past that's you you fully understand, you can try and find a strategy. And that's also an opportunity in the Discord. Um, I'll tell you what I trade, too. So, I'll get to that a sec. Um, but I do think the Discord's like a great place um for more discussions like this if you guys want to share like, man, I really um I've learned these trading concepts. Like, do we have any strategies that, you know, are kind of similar to that or like I really prefer continuation models, things like that, Discord's going to be a great place to to share like specific details and then we can kind of ideulate um you know, what ideas you guys have. And also, if you guys have other strategies you're testing and you're just curious like, hey, how could I improve this strategy? we can also have like conversations like that. Um, so it's a great place for pretty much any any trading and back testing questions you have. There's a lot of people that have spent a lot of time testing that are willing to help, myself included. So, what what strategies do I test? Um, I actually went through Trader Days quarterly theory mentorship in 2024. So, I do trade quarterly theory. Um, I again since I'm I've learned I'm not a good scalper. I'm not trading the micro cycles. Um, so I'm generally sticking to like daily and six-hour SSMTs. Um, so kind of M15 is kind of my bread and butter now with uh ES and NQ. Um, sometimes YM um at the Dow as well. So I I trade a little bit of quarterly theory and then I also did a video um it's going to be a little ways back. I'll have to go to the FX Replay YouTube. Um the first edge I ever learned with FX Replay was uh mechanical rising and falling wedges. Um so I did a video. It's actually not on the strategies page. Um, we might need to add it at some point. Um, but if I just go here, I think it's like get funded or something like that. How to get funded with this 15-minute trading strategy. It's over a year ago. Um, this is like the first mechanicals trading strategy I ever like was profitable with. Um, when I got to trade CFDs, I got like mid five figure payouts um by trading these mechanical rising and falling wedges. Um, so I do actually still I was like actually just charting it up a little bit today. There was a couple trades that would have been wins. um I was, you know, wasn't able to be on the charts. Um but it seems like it still working out. So that's honestly what I'm focused on a little bit is trading those two um just to kind of keep things simple and not um not over complicate things too much. But um hopefully that answer your question, you know, in terms of you know what's how do I find the right strategy for me and also, you know, give you a little information about uh what you want. And then someone last question before we wrap up. Someone's saying they they don't see the RTH and ETH. Um I think they moved it to the top of chart here. Um, so instead of being the bottom right, it's just up at the top now. Um, so you can I think like things are just getting too clogged. Um, so it's at the top here now, you can toggle between them. Um, so yeah, again, not like the hugest sample size end of the day, only 26 trades, but definitely enough to see like, okay, this is a promising strategy that I do think you guys, if you really want high win rate, one to one strategy, um, that's not too complicated and and pretty selective, um, this could be a really good strategy for you guys to test out. Um, so, so yeah, I hope you guys enjoyed this and uh, yeah, if you end up testing it yourselves, I'm definitely curious to hear more results as more people get larger sample size. And yeah, with that we'll wrap it up. I hope you guys have a great rest of your weekend and I'll catch you later everyone. See you. Bye.