Backtesting ES (S&P500) Using 5m Supply & Demand

All right, what's good? So, today we're going to be backtesting through ES, aka S&P 500. It's just another futures pair that we're trying to get through. Trying to get through all these futures pairs to make sure we have the best possible list. Currently, we have gold, NAS 100, crude oil, and now ES. Now, I'll explain exactly why ES is already on my list. Um exactly why I've picked this month and I mean exactly how we're going to be trading the strategy. So, if you don't know, I trade a strategy called liquidity supply and demand. Hopefully, we'll get a setup within the next few days so we can kind of um you know, I can give a good example, but uh also as for time period, we're going to be trading from 8:00 a.m. till 3:00 p.m., which hasn't even really shown the session here. This looks like a pretty dry day. Uh it pretty much just gets the best of London and New York volume. It's just going to be within this gray box. That's going to be where we're trading. Um and yeah, so hopefully we can get a an example in the next few days. We won't be getting a trade every single day on here, but you know, that's expected. We don't want to Ooh, okay. There is a zone down here. This is actually a great example. Um yeah, all I'm looking at here, big push off. Investors will have missed out on getting a good price right here. Um this is the last area where we're going down before we suddenly shot off. So, I mean, yeah, the rest of the orders are going to be at this zone. Uh we then came down forming a level of liquidity and then got a break of structure. That is literally it. Just push off, liquidity, break of structure. And then when we come down we generally push off if it's high quality, of course. Uh and this zone is actually looking pretty nice. It's a pretty textbook um as for breaks of structure and overall trend. Um I'm not looking like crazy back at the overall trend because we're on the 5-minute time frame. We can catch a very quick trade. Uh but we've had some recent, you know, uh bullish breaks of structure and stuff. Unfortunately, at least it we failed at this high if we tap right now. So, it's not ideal. What is the time here? 8:55 as well. So, this is new 1-hour. If we come into the zone uh and then flip bullish, then I'll take uh an entry on the flip. If we Yeah, that's that's the main thing I'm looking at, to be honest. Um if not, we might just run off, but hopefully we can get something along those lines. Maybe a break of Okay, that's cool. Um 9:00 candle literally perfect flip entry. Um if you don't know, candles generally purposefully create their bottom wicks to fill in orders um before going up. So, I mean, this looks very purposefully done. This looks perfect for our strategy. Uh and the one good thing about futures is you don't have to worry about spreads. So, this would be the actual entry we're taking, but uh yeah, I mean, let's see how this runs. Okay. That's a very nice first trade. Um as for the period we've picked, I've just picked September because I mean, I that's where I got up to backtesting with the mentees. Uh I'm backtesting every week in there. Um So, literally, this is just where we got up to. There's not really like a specific reason I picked this month, so it could be bad, it could be good. So far, we've had uh January, which was like a 12% month, followed by like a 1% month, then an 8% month, then 9%, then 1%, then 0%. So, it can vary quite a lot. Hopefully, this will be one of the higher percent months. Uh just for the video, to be honest. It's just like a bit less boring if we just get a if we just get a bunch of losers. Um well, no, it'd be more boring if we got a bunch of losers. Okay, the rest of this day looks like horrible price action. But yeah, good first trade overall. Hopefully, um it'll continue that way. You never know. Uh I'm not expecting 100% win rate or anything. This is a nice zone right here, to be honest. Actually, this looks very similar to the last one. Um bearish candle for the big move up. Don't really like the actual zone itself, but the liquidity's nice. Movement's down Movement down is nice. 8:50 could be a break of candle entry, potentially. Um Actually, I'll probably just wait for a close just cuz it's a big zone. So, uh give us some more opportunity to enter the zone more. Um Ooh okay. Um new 1-hour and we have like no volume in the markets. Is this something I want to take? Uh where are we? Trend is just like really nice for it. It's just this is a quite a large zone. Um New 1-hour. Why is there like such little volume suddenly? Like we came down really strongly and then suddenly we tapped the zone and there's like no volume in the market. Like this is literally a three-pip candle in comparison to this one, which was 20 pips. So, it's not really my favorite. Uh just based on that, I'm going to say no. That was just a random candle. Yeah, volume was just bearish this day, I guess. Um Just zero bullish volume, really. We'll take that. We we we We take any win we can, um whether that's avoiding a loss or actually taking a win. Uh and it looks like the rest of this day wasn't ooh too exciting. But yeah, so far the results on this have been pretty good. We've started backtesting copper with the mentees as well. Um so, that's pretty cool. Uh so far, it's been interesting. Uh it hasn't been, you know, anything crazy. But I mean, all these pairs seem to be generally very similar in performance. Uh I mean, the new ones I've been I've been trading. Gold and NAS are like just ridiculous. Uh I think crude oil actually had quite similar results, to be fair. Um but all these other ones, I'm just kind of trying to add pairs to add some trade frequency because we haven't been having too many uh too many trades um as of recent. There's a zone down here which has some potential. Uh I don't know if there's any zones below. No, none of these have great liquidity. Yeah, this one just quite simple. Just this is the level of liquidity. Uh we are clearly breaking all the structure to the left. Um just good direction. I do not mind this zone at all. Uh Plus, if we Okay. I'd 1:30 next. Um I'll wait for the new 30-minute candle to create a bottom wick and then enter on the flip, I guess. Uh if it doesn't, you know, do that, then it wouldn't be an entry uh just because once again, we know new higher timeframe candles like to create their bottom wicks before shooting up. They're just filling in more orders, getting more momentum. Uh so, I'm going to wait for that to happen. >> [snorts] >> Okay. Well, I could say that I just took the the easiest one to 10 of my life, but I'm not going to. That's obviously a news candle. >> [laughter] >> Okay. Well that's unfortunate. Um looks like we had everything correct, just not on the right candle. Just happened to be news. That is very unfortunate, but oh well. Um we [snorts] move. Uh but yeah, things have been going well recently. Uh I'm currently in a 30-minute trade, actually, which is my third 30-minute trade of the whole year. I've pretty much just been trading futures at this point. Um on the 5-minute, so uh yeah, but 30-minutes have continued to be pretty slow overall. Um our results are good on it. Like out of the two trades that I've taken, like this one that I've just taken has made it three trades for the year so far. Out of the two other ones, one was a loss and one was 5%. So, I mean, I can't really complain. We're up 4% just from that, so uh yeah. But yeah, basically, trade frequency on I mean, everything at the moment has been kind of low. Um but we've been making like the same percent gain like as 2025 and we haven't even had like a really good month yet. We haven't had like the 20% month. Uh conditions have just been steadily solid, uh which is nice. I think we're just learning to trade really well even during like more boring conditions. Um which is I mean, an amazing skill to have. This is not a zone I'm interested in, for the for the record, if you're experienced enough to kind of be looking at each zone on the screen. If I'm just skipping past it, probably because I'm not interested in it, whether it's just poor liquidity, poor movement up to the zone. Ooh, I went a bit far. Did we miss anything? No. I mean, there's a zone all the way down here. >> [laughter] >> This isn't like horrible, to be fair. There's just like a bunch of liquidity all the way down, but news candle and Okay. All right, yeah. I'm I'm not liking this zone basically. Not one to enter on on news candles, personally. Uh we we like the pure price action and shh whatever. Better than that. Um that's the end of that day already. Just really boring price action, to be honest. Um but we'll we'll continue. Uh I don't know if we'll just do 1 month of backtesting here or if we'll go uh any further. Um There's a really nice zone all the way down here, but I doubt we're going to tap it. Yeah, it's looking unlikely. Uh anything going on here? And we're coming down to it, but I think it's too old now anyway. Yeah, I mean, pretty bad. Um But yeah, I I'm interested to hear how all of your trading has been going this year so far um with you know you know everything going on. Obviously, there's been a whole war and whatnot. But [clears throat] luckily, it hasn't seemed to affect us um our trading too much. But I mean, not that any I don't know. I'd rather wars not go on for many reasons to be honest, but you know, it happens. Um and then it um hopefully it's calmed down a bit now. It seems to have not What it seems to not be as bad at the moment. I'm not interested in this zone just cuz it was a double bottom at the bottom. And this is looking at the end of this day. Okay. Hopefully, we get another trade because um I don't want this to just be like one trade in a backtesting video. We kind of kind of kind of like >> [laughter] >> whole backtesting video just for one trade. Um Okay. Where is price going? Okay, this is just going to look like a So, kind of like already heavily trending day. Uh although we could potentially catch something. There's actually uh a zone a supply zone which is actually not too bad, but it's kind of intuition-based. Um Yeah, this looks really weird, I'll admit. Um zone is very large. I mean, liquidity's fine. Break of structure is kind of weak. Uh but there's I mean, A, we're reacting from this supply zone right here. B, we've just double topped at these highs. Uh and C, we have a lot of gaps to potentially fill and a lot of moves or a lot of movement to correct. Uh cuz generally, like this is quite a large move to just continue going up. Kind of expect some more of a retracement. Uh it's just the zone itself isn't very nice, is all. Um What time is this at? 1:25. I mean, >> [snorts] >> a flip entry would be fine if we come back into the zone and then flip. If not, a break candle entry. Might just [snorts] wait till break of candle anyway just because it's very close to where flip would be. >> [snorts] >> Um Yeah, if we create an upper wick and then break candle, I would say this is a decent one for a I mean, >> [snorts] >> it just looks like it could. Uh yeah, okay. Yeah, we could have just entered on flip, but you know what? Break of candle is a little bit safer, so. Um I don't think it really matters where I put my stop loss. I don't know whether to put it. I think one pip above was ideal. I don't know if I did that on the last one. I think one pip above the candle that goes deepest into the zone is probably the safest way to do it on here because the pips are kind of large. Kind of similar to crude oil. Did I do a backtesting video on crude oil on the YouTube? I'm not sure. Um Yeah, as for TPs, I'm just going to be going for one to fours on all these. It is fine if you don't want to go for one to fours. Sometimes I actually have been going for one to threes in live markets, but I do most of my backtesting based on one to fours. It kind of shows like how powerful uh a zone will be or sorry, a pair will be if it can just easily hit one to fours like this. Uh and so far, this is looking I mean, this is a really good candle obviously. Um Very clean. Very clean. Very clean. Um Yeah, no, this is uh nice. The setup itself, once again, kind of weird, but we're creating double top right here. Double top right here. Supply zone reaction right here. And we're just like this high up in the market, a lot of the time price is going to retrace. You feel me? Um It's usually not just going to go in that straight line move kind of forever. But yeah, very solid to be honest. Um But yeah, well, I've I've run out of things to talk about, I guess. Um Price action looks kind of nice on these recent days. There's a potential supply zone up here. Invalid. There's a potential one up here as well. Invalid. Cool. Cool. Cool. Cool. Uh there's one up here, but I'm not really too interested in this one. At this point, just very messy price action coming up now. Um Yeah, invalid anyway. Yeah, maybe it maybe it's a buy position day anyway. Uh looks like we kind of switched. Oh, I went too far. What time is this at? 2:35. That's such a good flip entry. Actually, this closes inside. Uh I think close on the edge. Yeah, I don't really care if things close on the edge on things like S&P and crude oil especially because once again, the pip sizes are like quite large if I get out a position too. Uh you can see like you can visibly see each pip quite easily, so like when it closes on the edge, it was either closing here or here. So, it's like Okay, I don't I don't know if that makes sense. Just closing on the edge on larger pip pairs generally um is is not too bad. Uh and now yeah, as for entry, this is like a perfect flip entry. Um Because we came or we tapped once right here. Then we came deeper into the zone. Still very high volume and then flipped. Uh But I Ooh. Yeah, I feel I feel weird saying flip just because it's already shown this much of the candle. Uh but that is very clean. Yeah, generally [snorts] I like to try make my calls before they happen as much as possible, but I actually went one candle too far here. Um But yeah, no, this is like pretty much an A+ setup. So, like uh I think yeah, anyone that like trades the strategy Oh my god, I'm bad at talking. Anyone that trades the strategy knows this is like an A+ setup. This is as clean as it gets, so. Uh was that a news candle? No, that was New York Stock Exchange open. The This was New York Stock Exchange open actually. This is just suddenly even more volume picked up. Okay. Are we three for three? Chat, are we three for three? Once again, this doesn't happen every time. Like this is just a very lucky area to have picked. This is genuinely like just where I got up to with uh with the mentees, so that this just yeah, I guess it just happens. Um But yeah, we're not getting like 100% win rate. Like that's not That's not how trading works. Um But hey it it happens in backtesting more often than live markets, I guess. I mean, we We've been going on win streaks. One of my students is currently on a a six win streak, I think, targeting literally one to threes and one to fours, which is ridiculous. He's kind of killing it more than me right now to be honest. Um I I don't know how he how he's managing it. He's just done like a ridiculous amount of backtesting, which once again, bro, I can't like urge you guys enough to just do backtesting. Literally, pairs that you have or like are on your list, pairs that aren't on your list yet, you want to like test some things to maybe get more on there. Um Or just unrelated. Like I'm currently testing copper. Who knows if it's going to be a a main pair or not. Uh there's a supply zone up here. >> [snorts] >> Uh I think it closes inside. That is high volume rejection anyway. Okay yeah. Um What was I saying? Yeah, generally, just backtest whatever you can. Um you'll just understand the market so much more and you'll come to the market with so much more confidence. Uh and that is very important. This zone down here looks pretty clean. Okay, what the hell? This is new. I don't think I've ever really seen it where the top of the zone is just like like the close of the candle with just no lower wick. That looks really strange. Um Uh did I miss this? Did I kind of miss out here? That was kind of a nice win. I just don't know what I would do in the situation where we close >> [laughter] >> no bottom wick just right here. I don't know. This seems very strange. Um I mean, I yeah, I guess that's a really nice trade, so I kind of missed out. This month has gone insane by the way. I mean, I It's not like anything crazy. Once again, I think January Yeah, January is pretty much the same thing. Literally, only wins. Same with March. So, it's not that crazy. But yeah, ES has been like a little bit slower than like our already main pairs, so um it's a little bit like Yeah, I don't know. >> [laughter] >> It's a little bit more surprising than than NAS or gold or whatever. They're kind of like our OGs. Um How long have is this video already? I feel like I backtested to do this very quickly. Usually when I do this in calls in the coaching calls, like kind of takes me a bit longer um because I'm like answering questions as well and kind of just going through this. Um this is a zone. Did this tap? I mean, it's not really something I'm interested in. I'm not sure. Let me take a Let me take a look. Did it tap first? Oh. Yes, it did. It tapped right there. Um yeah, I don't think I'll take this. Just too kind of liquidity is very low down. Um this is like a bit too far from the zone and we also came up, took the liquidity, then kind of like rejected, then came up a little bit later. Just a little bit too low quality for me. I'll probably avoid it. Um but it's it's a fine setup, you know, if if you did take it. Oh, okay. Well, that's fine. Um yeah, can't win them all, I guess. >> [laughter] >> Um this looks like a very heavily bearish trending day though. Any other setups come up? Um there's a zone up here. Potentially. Is that a zone? I think so. Yeah, that is a zone. Uh okay, we have a zone up here and we have a zone up here and I quite like both of them. I mean, this one's all right. Um liquidity is a bit close. Uh actually no, I guess that's like kind of perfect distance to be honest. I don't know what I'm talking about, but we're just like quite low. Um this is the highest just a decent continuation there. Um 1320 so I mean, I guess break of No, probably just wait for the close. Um wouldn't be a flip entry, wouldn't be break candle. We'd just wait for the close. Uh we'll see what it is and then I'll decide, I guess, cuz I mean, waiting for the close anyway. Um okay, well, break candle would have also been uh an option, I guess. Uh the next candle is a new 30-minute, but this is like a decent stop loss size. Um now would it win back-to-back like this? I wouldn't be surprised at all. Markets kind of do that. Sorry, I'm still baffled by this trade. That's so weird. I've just like never seen that. Um Uh I think stop loss should be wide enough for a new 30-minute candle. Uh new 30-minute wait to get created. It's only a new 30-minute, that should be fine. Is 1:4 too far though? That is a quite far. Um like general like uh for a trade like this in like markets, I'll just target a 1:3, but but because I do this testing, I mean, it's just testing anyway. Who Who cares? Uh we'll just put it at 1:4 and then if it hits 1:3, um we'll keep that in mind. Oh my god. Okay, will it hit? Okay. Wow. Um >> [snorts] >> uh cool. I guess we'll keep going for the rest of the month. Uh how long have I been recording for? 23 minutes. Oh, that's going to be a It's going to be a short It's going to be a short video. No. I mean, maybe 30 minutes. Uh yeah, let's see. I don't know why I'm backtesting slowly with so not in session. Uh but let's see if we can get anything else. This is September. How many days are there in September? 30 30 Don't question me on my month knowledge, okay? I just know February has 28 and most of the ones that have 31. Guys, I sound like an idiot. [laughter] Uh that was kind of a No, no, no, liquidity is too weak for that. Okay, I lost anyway. Um >> [snorts] >> yeah, you can trade the strategy with like a more aggressive approach and take like lower quality setups more often and it will still be profitable. >> [snorts] >> It's just personally, I prefer A, the freedom of time I have by just kind of taking or just like the freedom of just not having to do as much work uh because of just taking kind of less trades. This is um a zone. It's just one kind of liquidity though. Like this is this is it. There's no fakeout from there or anything, so it's not something I'm really interested in. Uh there's a zone down here though. Ooh. Okay. Well, we've given a bit of a fakeout to this, so if it does lose, yeah, I'm not interested in this. Uh if it does lose and then comes down, oh. All right. All right. Okay, is it every zone just hit? Um actually no, no, I did I did avoid all these earlier. Okay. I was very confident in this just kind of giving a fakeout and then coming down to be honest. The liquidity was just very weak on this. I really like this zone. I'm quite sad. Um that like immediately won as well. That is just like the most beautiful price action ever. Uh there's a zone down here. Very nice zone down here actually. Okay cool. Uh very nice zone down here as well. This is also very nice. What a good day for just a bunch of setups. Uh I guess [snorts] what time is it at? 12:30. Uh um we'll probably just wait for a close entry. First 12:35, right? Never mind. >> [laughter] >> Uh this You'll never guess what, guys. There's another zone down here and it also just looks very nice. Like these are this is just like back-to-back-to-back. Like pretty much A+ setups. And nothing valid. Uh this zone's too old as well. Oh my gosh. Okay, that's unfortunate. Like the whole day of beautiful trades and then I mean, that was a winner actually. On the worst of all of them. That's what I'm saying, you can trade a more aggressive approach and take those kind of trades, but you will just incur a lot more losses as well. So you have to be careful. That's all. Um but is a you know, [snorts] some people do that and can be successful, but um especially if you're trading like futures firms and stuff, you have to be very careful to not you know, lose more than 3% in a day, that's for sure. If you're losing 3% in a day, then uh that's not ideal. Um any more than 3% especially is just like very rough. You should never be hitting your like max daily drawdown on a prop firm challenge in one day. That shouldn't be possible. Okay, we'll do this last day since I'm already kind of in it. See if we can get a trade at the start of October here. Um and there's a maybe a zone up here. It's not my favorite anymore. Okay, we broke down anyway. So any more zones? Zone up here, I just don't really like it. I'm not going to Yeah, wasn't wasn't really a fan anyway. Looks like it kind of won after closing inside there. Uh yeah, if you want to join the coaching calls and stuff, uh you can apply in the link in the descrip in a in the in the >> [clears throat] >> You can apply for the link in the description and you can work with me. You can work with me one-on-one. I'll be answering everyone's questions, of course. Uh I do backtesting in there every single week, three coaching calls a week. Uh and it's um the community in there is just great, but yeah, other than that, like, subscribe, comment. Um if you have any questions, I'll try to get back to you. Um and yeah, I'll see you in the next one. Peace.