Best Alligator Strategy For Binary Options [89% Win Rate]
Alice | Binary Guides · watch on YouTube ↗
Analysed 31 Oct 2026, 05:41 PM IST
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Heads up: this strategy was originally created for
a non-Indian market.
We applied the exact same logic to Indian stocks & indices and the backtest completed successfully —
every result below is on Indian market data.
Why 3.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.16R across 11,109 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.0 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 32% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -34% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Alligator indicator (3-line SMA crossover: 5/8/13 periods) with 150-EMA trend filter for binary options on 1-min timeframe; buy when lines cross/diverge aligned with EMA bias. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 11,109 trades, win 32%, payoff 3.01, expectancy +0.16R/trade (avg +0.78%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (67% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
Return+144.9%
CAGR+12.0%
Max drawdown-33.6%
Trades664 · 197 won
₹200,000 → ₹489,758
· 2018-07-09 → 2026-06-08
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3% | -8% | +63% | +42% | +6% | +23% | +1% | -5% | -5% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 622 | 33% | -0.07R | -0.69% |
| 2019 | 1415 | 30% | +0.02R | -0.06% |
| 2020 | 1293 | 40% | +0.53R | +3.84% |
| 2021 | 1360 | 34% | +0.29R | +1.63% |
| 2022 | 1408 | 31% | +0.06R | +0.17% |
| 2023 | 1357 | 38% | +0.63R | +2.61% |
| 2024 | 1451 | 29% | +0.02R | -0.11% |
| 2025 | 1623 | 24% | -0.09R | -0.77% |
| 2026 | 580 | 28% | -0.12R | -0.55% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 62 | 34% | +10.3% | +182% | +639% | +55% |
| 2 | ████████ | 60 | 33% | +2.2% | +92% | +133% | +38% |
| 3 | ████████ | 68 | 41% | +7.4% | +97% | +503% | +37% |
| 4 | ████████ | 62 | 37% | +6.4% | +133% | +395% | +36% |
| 5 | ████████ | 76 | 34% | +0.7% | +44% | +50% | +35% |
| 6 | ████████ | 65 | 42% | +7.3% | +143% | +477% | +32% |
| 7 | ████████ | 70 | 31% | +4.8% | +125% | +333% | +26% |
| 8 | POLYCAB free peek | 60 | 40% | +3.5% | +58% | +209% | +26% |
| 9 | ████████ | 25 | 24% | -1.9% | +15% | -47% | +24% |
| 10 | ████████ | 68 | 34% | +3.5% | +77% | +241% | +22% |
| 11 | ████████ | 63 | 41% | +0.8% | +29% | +53% | +22% |
| 12 | ████████ | 82 | 24% | +0.2% | +72% | +14% | +22% |
| 13 | ████████ | 72 | 29% | +1.5% | +32% | +105% | +20% |
| 14 | ████████ | 68 | 37% | +1.7% | +50% | +118% | +19% |
| 15 | ████████ | 67 | 36% | +1.9% | +54% | +125% | +18% |
| 16 | ████████ | 79 | 33% | +1.4% | +42% | +110% | +16% |
| 17 | ████████ | 78 | 31% | +0.9% | +43% | +68% | +16% |
| 18 | ████████ | 46 | 22% | +1.2% | +66% | +54% | +15% |
| 19 | ████████ | 73 | 27% | +0.5% | +52% | +34% | +14% |
| 20 | ████████ | 83 | 25% | +0.1% | +45% | +10% | +13% |
| 21 | ████████ | 76 | 26% | +0.2% | +46% | +16% | -32% |
| 22 | ████████ | 71 | 34% | +0.5% | +32% | +37% | -30% |
| 23 | ████████ | 39 | 33% | +1.4% | +60% | +53% | -25% |
| 24 | ████████ | 78 | 33% | -0.6% | +18% | -46% | -21% |
| 25 | ████████ | 71 | 28% | +0.1% | +46% | +6% | -21% |
| 26 | ████████ | 22 | 45% | +1.9% | +35% | +41% | -21% |
| 27 | ████████ | 83 | 27% | -0.1% | +50% | -8% | -20% |
| 28 | ████████ | 62 | 29% | +0.4% | +28% | +26% | -20% |
| 29 | ████████ | 63 | 40% | +1.2% | +31% | +73% | -20% |
| 30 | ████████ | 75 | 29% | -0.5% | +24% | -40% | -19% |
You can see the numbers — see the names.
Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel.
The worst stock in this table returned -47% under these
exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 99 | 33% | +0.15R | +0.19% |
| BANKNIFTY | 100 | 34% | +0.12R | +0.19% |
Full transcript (2286 words)
[Music] in this video I will show you one of the most effective strategies using the alligator indicator and this strategy is extremely easy to use but most importantly it is super effective let's wait for the end of the transaction and proceed to the analysis [Music] hello fellow traders in this video we will analyze the alligator indicators and of course we're gonna talk about trading strategies on it but we'll figure it out what the alligator indicator is and what it consists of of course I will show you how to set up let that set indicator and we will analyze the classic crossover strategy and as usual at the end of the video I will show you my own improved version and we will hold a trading session using it but before we move on to the video I just wanted to remind you that I can't see any thing and everything that's going on on my channel and I know that there's a small percentage of people who watch my videos but you are not subscribed to this channel so if you like this kind of content if you like me talking about different kind of strategies please please don't forget to click that subscribe button so I can continue to share my experience on YouTube now let's move on back to the video let's talk a little bit about the theoretical part of today's video and the question is what is an alligator indicator right but since we have already analyzed this indicator in great detail in my free course which you by the way can get completely for free by simply texting me on Telegram and link to which is going to be in the description box down below and that means that in this video we will not dive into the history and calculations of formulas for these indicators we will only go through the main points so the alligator indicator is one of the basic indicators of technical analysis and this indicator consists of three smooth moving average lines with different settings each of those lines they are named after parts of the alligator mouth This Is War like where the name basically comes from so let's talk about them the Green Line This is the Lips of an alligator and this is the fifth period of SMA Smooth by three bars second one the red line and this is the teeth of an alligator and this is the eighth period of SMA Smooth by five bars the last one the Blue Line This is the jaws of an alligator and this is the 13th period of SMA Smooth by eight bars now let's get to practice so first thing that we need to do is to add the indicator to our chart open your pocket option and open the different indicators in the right top corner you can see the alligator you add it and you can see it on your chart now so settings are gonna be the same so default settings I'm not touching them because they are perfect for one minute time frame and in the Styles I'm gonna still save it the same way if you want you can change them now let's talk about the indicator itself so it gives you the ability to determine the trend on the market so for example right here we can clearly see an uptrend all the lines they are going up and all of them are not connected to each other and the turn of them is the lips the teeth and the jaws of an alligator and the chart is above the alligator indicator the downtrend looks basically vice versa all the lines they're supposed to be on top of the chart and it's supposed to be again vice versa but be really really careful with situations like that when the lines are parallel to each other or when they are interconnecting with each other that means that at that point there is no trend on the market and a trading at that point is not safe now let's talk about classic strategy of trading with alligator indicator and it's called alligator crossover look at this example right here you can see that there was a really short uptrend but now all the lines of alligator indicator are getting closer to each other that means that there is going to be a redirection of the trend and at the moment where lines are basically intertwining or crossing each other for example the lips line is crossing the lips of teeth and Jaws from the up to down position that means that we can open a deal right here for a downtrend and only deals that we're gonna do is going to be deals for three minutes let's see what's going to happen in three minutes and of course you see that the price is dropping and we can see the new direction of the trend thanks to Alligator indicator another example right here we see that there was a really short uptrend and at this moment it's changing to a downtrend and we are going to look uh through the alligator uh lines we're waiting for one line to cross two other lines it happens right here same story but another Direction and that is the signal for us to open the deal for a uptrend when the green line is crossing to other lines and of course three minutes let's wait for what's gonna happen there and you can clearly see that the price is spiking up and the deal is going to be closed in Black as any other strategy the strategy also has its flaws let's talk about them so right here you can see that the alligator lines they are getting closer to each other so now we're waiting for them to cross each other and right here we can see that the price is going down and you can see the Green Line crossing the red and blue line this point and this is supposed to be the signal for us to open a deal for a downtrend right and at this point we should have opened it for three minutes and let's see what's gonna happen here and you see that the price is not going down it's actually going up and this actually happens because we didn't think about one really really important factor right here this is a really powerful uptrend and we were only looking at like a small detail but uh the alligator gives us the signals all the time and here it like the alligator indicator thought that this is the trend reversal but it's not let's see how we can uh get rid of those false signals now so to get rid of those full signals we need to add an additional thing uh 150 day exponential moving average online on our chart so you can see it now it's a yellow line and there is only one simple rule if the price is higher than 150 EMA that means we can only open deals for an uptrend completely ignoring all the signals of a downtrend so that's why in this example that we just talked where we should have lose money we would just ignore the point where alligator gave us the signal and we wouldn't lose the money and right here there is a second signal where we can open the deal uh and we're gonna do this actually because the price is higher than 150 EMA line and this is an uptrend and here we open the do for an uptrend and the deal is going to be closed in black as you can see additionally there is one more thing to my strategy is that I'm not always waiting for the alligator lines to be Crossing each other so right here you can see that the chart is below the 150 EMA line and that's why we are trying to find points where we can open deals for a downward Trend so right here you can see that or the price is breaking through all three lines of alligator indicator and this is the same signal for us to open a deal for a downward Trend as if the uh all the lines would cross each other or green line would cross the red one and blue one and we can open the deal for a downward trend for three minutes as well as you can see the deal is going to be closed in Black even though the lines of alligator just crossed each other another example here so if you look at this chart you can see that the chart is higher than 150 you may line that means we can only open deals on a upward Trend right and we're waiting when the price is going to be closed higher than alligator lines not waiting for them to cross each other and at this point we can open our deal for an upward trend for three minutes and you can clearly see that the deal is going to be closed in Black even though the alligator lines just crossed each other let's get finally started with our trading session of today and first thing we're going to do is to change the settings I'm gonna do three minutes of expiration um the amount of money I'm gonna choose five hundred dollars it's like two percent of my balance and the time frame is going to be one minute now adding the indicators and we are choosing alligator of course and moving average and we're gonna change settings for moving average choosing exponential moving average and change it into 150 period and then Styles I'm gonna change the yellow color just because it's easier to see the difference between colors on the screen so now let's get started and let's try to find our first currency pair off today foreign [Music] guys right here this is going to be the first deal for today and it's gonna be risky as you can tell because the price is still below the 150 yma line but it's close enough and in general in situations like that you can open deals like that but it's really risky so be careful and don't forget that's why I'm here to make risky things for you as an example okay and the first deal of the day is closed in balac which is amazing as you can see the price broke through the 150 made line and that's amazing let's try to find another one and okay we found the second deal of the day and here you can see that the price is crossing the alligator line and we are expecting the price to go higher foreign second deal is closed in Black which is amazing continuing and trying to find another one okay so guys right here we're gonna open the third one even though the price still haven't like crossed both lines or all the lines sorry we can still see that the trend is really really strongly going down and even though the price is uh under 150 EMA and we got like a small signal from the alligator this is enough for us to open a deal on a downtrend as usual three minutes and we're gonna wait for that but don't forget again this is a bit risky but this is why we're here to see how things work foreign ly it was a bit too early to open this deal in particular and unfortunately lost the money but again example on how to be more careful and the next deal is probably going to be doubled to get the money back and that's why we're gonna try to find more uh you know efficient signals where we can be sure about not losing our money thank you [Music] foreign guys so we're opening two lost deals in the opening in a double way both of them five hundred dollars I've been following this chart for a while I don't really like the lines they are quite weak but yeah uh if you look at the whole situation on the chart it's not a bad one let's see as usual three minutes let's wait what's gonna happen here [Music] this is what the moment of you know like really are you joking right now but at the end everything is great and we got the money we got the money back from the previous loss and that's going to be it for today guys we just had a great trading session and if you still have any questions you can always leave them in the comment section down below and of course you can also text me on my Telegram and by the way if you are just the beginner and you want to learn more about binary option trading you can also text me on my Telegram and get my free week-long course in which we have analyzed a lot of different indicators risk management and of course technical analysis the link to my telegram is going to be in the description box under this video but for now I also recommend you to watch this video where we have actually analyzed another fundamental indicator and this is macdeep but that's going to be it for us for today and thank you so so much for watching don't forget to subscribe to this Channel and I will see you in the next one bye bye
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