90% of Trading Strategies Are Garbage (Use This One Instead) — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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90% of Trading Strategies Are Garbage (Use This One Instead)

Jesse Rogers | Casper SMC · watch on YouTube ↗
Analysed 01 Aug 2026, 03:29 PM IST
★★★★☆ 4.0 / 5

Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)

  • Strong per-trade edge: +0.36R expectancy across 13,425 trades
  • Convex payoff 3.3 — winners far bigger than losers
  • Only 32% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
  • 5 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2022, 2025) — the edge is regime-dependent
  • Max drawdown -32% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

FuturesIntraday Volume

Claims it makes (quotes pulled from the transcript)

  • “90% of trading strategies you see online are garbage because they're optimized for clicks and not profitability.”

Verdict

Auto-backtested. Detected: breakout of a recent high. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 13,425 trades, win 32%, payoff 3.25, expectancy +0.36R/trade (avg +1.84%/trade).

This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Regime-dependent — positive in only 44% of years.

Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.

See strategies that scored 4★+ →
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🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)

Tracking since 2026-07-06 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.

Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)

Return+49.8%
CAGR+5.2%
Max drawdown-32.2%
Trades361 · 99 won
₹200,000 → ₹299,657  ·  2018-07-10 → 2026-06-08
201820192020202120222023202420252026
+1%+1%+33%+29%-9%+16%+3%-11%-11%

Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)

YearTradesWin %ExpectancyAvg return / trade
201865716% -0.59R -3.78%
2019131427% -0.02R -0.01%
2020181744% +0.99R +7.31%
2021180135% +0.44R +2.56%
2022166426% -0.07R -0.74%
2023211944% +1.32R +5.57%
2024183527% +0.13R +0.34%
2025150429% -0.02R -0.39%
202671422% -0.36R -1.72%

Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)

#StockTradesWin%Avg/tradeBestTotal2026
1 ████████ 8251% +25.3% +181% +2077% +198%
2 ████████ 9951% +19.0% +124% +1880% +159%
3 ████████ 7633% +3.6% +52% +277% +143%
4 ████████ 7842% +6.4% +85% +500% +137%
5 ████████ 7541% +9.0% +125% +672% +75%
6 ████████ 6936% +3.6% +101% +246% +71%
7 ████████ 9534% +2.6% +68% +246% +64%
8 CUMMINSIND free peek 10643% +6.8% +61% +717% +51%
9 ████████ 9440% +4.1% +66% +383% +40%
10 ████████ 4838% +4.1% +55% +198% +29%
11 ████████ 10234% +4.0% +65% +406% +27%
12 ████████ 9846% +7.5% +59% +738% +23%
13 ████████ 11134% +0.8% +32% +86% +19%
14 ████████ 10337% +3.2% +61% +332% +3%
15 ████████ 8136% -0.6% +15% -46% +1%
16 ████████ 9331% +3.1% +61% +293% +0%
17 ████████ 9239% +2.1% +32% +194% +0%
18 ████████ 8333% +2.0% +46% +170% +0%
19 ████████ 10031% +1.7% +50% +170% +0%
20 ████████ 8034% +0.2% +36% +19% +0%
21 ████████ 7027% +2.1% +60% +150% -46%
22 ████████ 9731% +2.8% +106% +269% -45%
23 ████████ 8921% -1.1% +34% -96% -40%
24 ████████ 8528% -0.0% +32% -3% -40%
25 ████████ 10830% +1.4% +69% +151% -37%
26 ████████ 7023% +0.1% +107% +7% -36%
27 ████████ 9520% -1.6% +33% -149% -35%
28 ████████ 9339% +1.2% +29% +115% -34%
29 ████████ 9033% +2.3% +69% +205% -34%
30 ████████ 10431% +2.2% +81% +232% -34%
You can see the numbers — see the names. Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel. The worst stock in this table returned -149% under these exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.

Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)

IndexTradesWin%Expectancy (R/trade)Avg return/trade
NIFTY17432% +0.04R -0.09%
BANKNIFTY16032% +0.20R +0.54%
Full transcript (2966 words)
90% of trading strategies you see online are garbage because they're optimized for clicks and not profitability. But the one you'll learn today is backed by a 10year track record and it consistently gives me wins like this, this, and this. We'll go over multiple trade examples. That way, by the end, you have everything you need to avoid the wasted time, money, and all the stress that I had to go through whenever I started trading. So, what makes this strategy any different than the rest? Well, first off, it has been proven to be extremely profitable over a 10year back test. Not to mention, I put my own capital behind it and made over $200,000 in just a couple of months. But I want to be very clear on something. I have been trading for 10 years. And these results aren't typical. In fact, it actually took me 5 years to even become a profitable trader. As you can see here, back in 2021, I was still blowing all my trading accounts, overtrading, and just an overall terrible trader. And I had been trading already for five years at this time. And by no means am I telling you that it's going to take you 5 years to become profitable, because quite frankly, it could have and should have only taken me one. Now, the reason it took so long was because I always thought my problem was psychology. But it turned out that was never the case. And what actually made me into a profitable trader, mind-blower, was just having a simple and proven strategy. And once this happened, a lot of my mindset problems took care of themselves. So, it turns out that you're actually not as bad of a trader as you think. You've just been trading garbage strategies that just don't work. And no amount of trading psychology can fix that. But today, we solved that for good. And disclaimer, there is one bad thing about the strategy that you're going to learn today. It's boring. You just trade one setup on one time frame. You basically just do the same thing every single day. And this doesn't matter what market you're trading. It's always the same. So, if you're looking for something fancy or over complicated, you're probably in the wrong place because this strategy is extremely straightforward. It's just three steps. Number one being how we find our levels where the best trades are going to happen at. Number two is how we find direction, whether we want to buy or sell. And last, but definitely not least, in fact, the most important part is our trade execution, which is the mechanical way that we find our entry, stop-loss, and target. I'm going to teach you this over multiple examples, and then we're going to go over some of the common mistakes that traders make using the strategy. That way, you don't make them. The goal of this strategy is to make consistent profits in less than 90 minutes per day. And the reason for this isn't just convenience. It's because having time limits and being in and out of the market really fast help you avoid overtrading and inherently help you from avoiding mistakes that cause you to blow your account. So, you're going to start off each day the same way. You get to your desk right at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. And this same time works for any market, whether it's futures, stocks, crypto, or forex. Now, first I'm going to teach you all three steps on a very easy picture perfect example. And after you have a good understanding of the strategy, then we're going to take a look at some more difficult days. That way, you have full confidence to go out and trade this in a real market. Now, let's hop right into step number one, which is how we find our key levels. And I want to be very clear, this is simple, but if you mess this up, nothing else works. So, make sure that you do this exactly as I say. And to do this, we're going to be on our five-minute chart. To get here, you go over here on Trading View up here and you click the fiveinut button. We're going to stay on this time frame for the entire strategy. Next, we're going to wait until 9:45 EST. Next, you're going to mark the volume profile over this 9:30 to 945 range. To do this, we're going to go over here to the left on the toolbar. We're going to click the forecasting and measurements tool button. We're going to go down to the fixed range volume profile, not anchored, but the fixed range volume profile. We're going to click that and then we're going to drag it over these first 15 minutes of the day. When you first draw yours, the settings aren't going to be updated. So, we're going to doubleclick this right here. You're going to go to the rows layout. Make sure you have ticks per row selected. Make the row size one, volume is volume, and value area volume is 70. Then if you want the same colors as me, you make the VA blue, same as the VLA, and same red as the point of control, which is POC. After you've changed your settings, your volume profile should look like this. And now you have all of the levels that you're going to need to find trades using this strategy. It's really that simple. Now, what we're going to do to mark these levels is we'll go over here to the toolbar. We want to click the drop down on the trend tools, and then we can click the horizontal ray. Then we want to mark the top level right here and then the bottom level right here. So this is what we're going to be paying attention to throughout the trading day. But having a range alone doesn't really do much for you if you don't know how to actually trade it. Which brings us to step number two. How we find the direction we want to trade. Are we bullish or are we bearish? And while this is really simple, if you get this wrong, all of your trades will also be wrong because well, you'll be trading in the wrong direction. But first, I want to ask you an important question. Are you the type of person that is actually going to stay consistent with a proven strategy once you have confidence in it? Because if not, no strategy is going to work for you, including this one, and you should probably just go ahead and leave this video. Now, if you are the type of person who is going to stay consistent, I want you to leave a comment and make a commitment to stick with this strategy for the next 30 days. Now, when it comes to finding the direction we're going to take trades in, we're going to want to wait for a breakout through one of our levels. Now, something I want to make very clear. We're not just looking for a wick through one of these levels. We need a very specific behavior to confirm the break and make sure that we avoid the losing trades. Otherwise, you're going to get chopped to pieces. As you can see, the very next 5-minute candle closes its body through our level. And this means that we're now going to only be looking for buys on this trading day. So now we've got our levels, we've found our direction, it's time to talk about how we find trade entries because having levels and knowing the direction of the market doesn't do much for us when it comes to making money. The only thing that can do that is consistent mechanical execution. But first, I wanted to let you know that I left a link in the description for you guys to join my free trading community. Inside I've got a full free course breaking down everything from A to Z on trading. You get access to the trades I'm looking for, my outlook on the market, trade recaps, and a ton of other cool stuff. So, I'll leave that link to join the free trading community down in the description. Now, let's get into the most important part of this strategy, our entry and trade execution. Now, there are three simple rules that we're going to want to follow in order to find the highest probability trades. Rule number one is simple, and we've already got it. We want to enter on our candle closure. So, what we want to do is go over here to the left on the toolbar, you want to select the forecasting tools, and since we broke through the high, we're going to be buying, meaning we're going to open a long position. Had it been a break through the low, we would have been selling and would have selected short. So, we're going to select long right here. And then you're going to literally enter as soon as this candle closes. Now, rule number two is how we find our stop loss, meaning where we accept that we were wrong on the trade, and our target, meaning where we want to take profit. Now, first, for our stop-loss, which is our invalidation point, we want to drag this right up to two ticks under the PC. Now, the PC stands for point of control, and it's this middle level you see here on this chart. As you can see, it's right at 756. So, if we went two ticks, that's going to be 755.5 because a tick is the smallest amount that the market can move. And for NASDAQ, which we're using in this example, it moves in ticks of 0.25. So, we would just go two ticks under that point of control. And for our target, we're going to be going for a fixed 2:1 risk-to-reward. To find this, you're going to go on the tool right here, and you see that risk-to-reward ratio right in the middle. You want to drag your target until that ratio is two. And what this means is our target is two times the distance from our entry as our stop is. Meaning we make twice as much profit when we win versus how much we lose when we're wrong. And this is very important to staying profitable in the long term. After you've mapped out your entry, stop-loss, and target, we're good to execute the trade. To do this, we're going to go up here to the top left and we're going to click buy. And then we are going to just click market buy. At that time, we're going to take our stop loss and we want to drag it down to our stop-loss level. And we want to take our target and drag it up to our target. Now, as you can see on this trade, we had a $35 risk to make $620. After you enter the trade, you just sit back and let the market do the heavy lifting for you. And in this example, you can see it hit the target very quickly. And a lot of times that happens when you're right on this strategy. Whether you're right or wrong, usually you're in and out of the market really fast. Now, don't forget, there is a third rule to entries, and that is that the entry must happen before 11:00 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. Remember, we said 90 minutes. Now, let's take a look at some other recent examples to make sure you get this right because I know that this seems super super simple, and it is, but it's important that you have a full understanding. Now, for this second example, I wanted to show you this really cool software called Deep Charts. Deep Charts is a charting software just like Trading View, but it gives you a lot more data. And you don't have to use this. You definitely can just use Trading View if you want. But if you want to sign up to Deep Charts, I'll leave a link down in the description where you can get a discount. Now, this example is on the day after the last one. I told you guys I wanted to show you real recent examples of this strategy so you can see how it's working in the recent markets. Now, as we go over here on deep charts to set our volume profile, it's the same tool, but it's going to be in a little bit of a different position. You click right here, and you select the volume profile. Next, the same thing. We're just going to mark out that first 15-minute range, and we want to wait for a break of our value area high or our value area low. Now, one really cool thing about deep charts is their replay mode where you can practice because you can actually see the candles printing out just as they did in real time. Now, this can help a lot because, as you can see, this first candle, it's pumping up and it gets really large. And a lot of you guys who are newer are going to make the mistake of thinking, "Oh, well, we have this big candle. I'm just going to go ahead and get in early and then the market starts doing this." So, this can help you practice and understand how candles print. Because a lot of times a candle that looks like this when you're looking back over, you know, previous data, you don't really realize that this wick was one time a large body. And this is one of the common mistakes a lot of people make with this strategy is just executing too early. And as you can see, just by waiting patiently, we did get our candle closure outside of the range. But if you had taken a trade and FOMOed here, you would have actually taken an unnecessary loss. Now, this may sound simple, but these kind of mistakes can be the difference between being profitable or unprofitable. So, the same thing as soon as that candle closed, you would have entered the trade and set your 2:1 risk-to-reward. And on this trade, you would have had $585 at risk to make $1,170. Now, another thing I want you to notice is look how close we got to the stop, but then turned around. A lot of traders would make the mistake of closing the trade out of fear right here to try to save themsel that extra little bit of loss. However, the reason that we put the stop loss here is because this level is extremely powerful. And even if price comes down near it, a lot of times it will be defended. And then as you see, the trade ended up hitting target right around 1010. So very quick in and out of the market, far less than 90 minutes a lot of the days. But as you can see, this strategy works extremely well. So you now have a proven strategy. But if you're anything like I was whenever I was still learning, you're probably going to trip up when it's time to trade, which is totally normal. I mean, like I told you guys earlier, it took me 5 years to become profitable. But the key is just staying consistent and not giving up. But for those of you who don't want to do it alone and want some extra help, I do have a mentorship where if you qualify, I guarantee you will become a funded trader in 90 days. You get access to live trading where you're sitting with me as I'm executing these setups, explaining why I'm getting in the trade and following along with me. You also get access to my full AI trading system. Every single trade that you take is reviewed by your coach and you get access to me and other profitable traders that are going to coach you throughout the process. So basically, you get to learn everything from my 10-year long trading career and you get to sit in with me while I'm trading. That way, you're not just getting a bunch of information, you're actually seeing how to implement. And I designed it this way because when I started out trading, I used to get so frustrated watching videos. I just wanted so bad for somebody to sit there with me while I was trading, pointing out mistakes and calling out trades. That way, I could see how to actually put everything together. So, if that sounds interesting to you, I left a link at the top of the description for my mentorship where you can apply. Now, regardless if we work together or not, I'm rooting for you to win, and I'm going to continue posting videos here for free on YouTube, teaching you everything you need in order to become a successful trader. The mentorship is just a little bit of a shortcut and something for people who want that extra bit of help. Now, I know there's a lot of other videos you guys could have clicked on today, so I just wanted to say thank you for spending your time here with me. And if this video was valuable, please subscribe to the channel. I'm going to leave a video here up on your screen that you can watch that can help you get even better at trading. See you guys in the next

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