Full transcript (3792 words)
You don't need to stare at the screens all day, use dozens of indicators, or blow multiple trading accounts in order to become profitable. In fact, over the last 7 years, one of the biggest lessons that I've learned is less is often more. Instead of forcing trades every single day, I started focusing on the highest quality opportunities. Just one to two A+ setups every single day has completely changed the way I trade. In this video, I'm going to share with you the exact three-step process that I use to help identify high probability trades, manage risk, and build a simple, repeatable system that doesn't require me to be glued at the screens all day. Let's get into [music] it. So, the goal of today's video is to identify a clear, simple setup on the higher time frames. You'll learn one trading strategy that is repeatable and mechanical. and we'll also talk about how to execute trades with clarity and consistency. And as you can see right here, this is my current monthto-date P&L. I'm up over $50,000 to start off the month of July. I made $10,000 on week number one. Week number two made $35,000. In week number three, I'm up $6,000. And in today's video, I'm going to teach you the exact concepts that help me achieve these results. I do want to mention that I've been trading for the past seven years and I lost for years in the markets until I was able to find an edge in the markets where I was able to make consistent profits on a daily basis. And as you can see, this is my net daily P&L. And I've had these outlier winning days and my losing days are relatively small compared to my winning days because I've been able to identify these higher time frame setups. And that is exactly what I'm about to share with you in today's video. And the proven system that I'm about to share with you today can be broken into three different steps. Number one, starting off with the direction of the overall markets. Number two, the setup. And then number three, the entry. So, we're going to go over all three of the steps today. You have to start off with the direction and move our way down to the entry. You can't start off with the entry and move our way back. Starting off with the direction of the markets. The markets can really only do one of three things. Number one, we can be in an uptrend, we can range, or we can be in a downtrend. And being able to identify which direction that we're in, depending if we're trending the markets, we're ranging or downtrending is going to be very important. Starting off with the range, what does this mean? Whenever we're ranging the markets, that means we're stuck in between key levels in the markets. Generally speaking, we're bouncing from key levels of support, rejecting off resistance, coming back down into support, rejecting off resistance again, and then coming back down into the bottom of the range. This means that price is stuck in between two key levels. Generally, this means that price is not moving anywhere. So, whenever you go on to lower time frames, it's going to be very hard to trade because there's no clear direction on the higher time frames. Another rule of thumb is if you just mark out the middle of the price level, you can see price is unable to get above or below these levels with continuation. So that usually means we're stuck in between key levels. Another simple way you can identify if price is stuck in a range is by using moving averages, which I'm going to talk about here for a trending market. The markets can also now be what's called in an uptrend. In this case, as you can see right here, what we have is higher highs, higher lows, and we're building towards the upside. You can see the market structure in this case is bullish, right? We're creating higher highs, higher lows, and we're pushing towards the upside. This is what's called an uptrend in the markets. And one of the easiest ways to identify how strong of a trend that we're in is using basic moving averages. In this case, what I like using is the EMAs. I like using the 9 and I also like using the 21 EMA as well. Whenever we're above these exponential moving averages, it gives us a good reference point to understand how bullish of an uptrend that we're in. If we're above the 9, above the 21, that means we're bullish, and we want to be looking for trades towards the upside. And in a downtrend, it is the exact opposite. In this case, we're building lower highs, lower lows, lower highs, lower lows. And as you can see, the structure in this case is bearish. We are clearly in a downtrend in the markets. And one of the most simplest ways to determine how strong of a downtrend that we're in once again is you can use basic moving averages. In this case, we can use the exponential moving average. If we're underneath the 9, we're underneath the 21. That means we're trending lower. And in this case, we're bearish. We're underneath the 9 underneath the 21. And that means we're going to look for continuation moves towards the downside. With that being said, now we understand the direction of the overall markets. If we're trending higher or trending lower, or we're ranging. Now, let's talk about the setup. When we're talking about the setup, I like using three setups primarily on the lower time frames. Number one, starting off with the previous day high and previous day low retest. Then we have the opening range retest along with the order block retest. So, these are my three favorite setups that I would look for on the lower time frames. So, the setups that we talk about today, everything is based off of one single candle. And we're going to focus on the high of the candle along with the low of the candle. In this case, as you can see, we're currently on the daily time frame. What we want to do, our first setup is the previous day high and previous day low. We want to mark out that previous day high. As you can see right here, we have the high of the candle marked out. And now, we want to have the low of the candle marked out, which is our previous day lows. So, we have the high and low of the candle marked out. Next, what we want to do is refine our levels slashbox in the previous day highs. As you can see, in this case, we have one daily candle. We can go on to the lower time frames. I usually like doing this on the 15-minute time frame. And I like refining these levels into areas in price. The reason being is because a lot of the times we have a wick to the body and sometimes you'll see price breaks above it. It'll reject the previous day highs, but it won't reject it perfectly. And same thing, it'll come back down. It might bounce off our previous day lows. It might bounce it right at it. It might break underneath, reclaim, bounce from it, or it might bounce right before the previous day lows and reverse back towards the upside. So, that's why I like giving it a little bit of wiggle room. So, I'm going to mark these areas out in price. Next, what we want to do is wait for a clear direction in the markets. This is specifically for trending markets. We can wait for a break above our previous day highs for continuation towards the upside or we can wait for a break below the previous day lows for a push towards the downside of course. So there's really two scenarios as I mentioned. We're looking for downside underneath our previous day lows or we're looking for upside above our previous day highs and this is when the markets are in trends. Of course, if the markets are ranging, we want to look for the previous day highs rejection or in this case, we want to look for the previous day low bounce play for a reversal trade back towards the upside. So, depending on what the markets are doing on the higher time frames, we can be looking for continuation, which is my personal favorite, or you can be looking for the markets to reverse, which is more so mean reversions when the markets are consolidating/ranging. And as you can see right here, this is a good example. We have our previous day's range marked out. We consolidate in the after hours in the pre-market. We have that initial push towards the upside within the first 15 to 30 minutes. We break above. We hold that previous day highs nicely. And now you can see we have that next continuation back towards the upside. Now let's talk about the second setup that we have which is the opening range setup. What we want to do in this case is focus on the first candle of a new market session. What we want to do is mark out the high once again along with the low of the candle. In this case, instead of marking the previous day high and low, we're going to mark out the five minute high along with the fiveinut low. Once we mark out these levels, as you can see, we can do this on the 5minut time frame. And this, of course, is done on the New York open. This is at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. We have the 5m minute high. We have the 5m minute low. You can simply do this on the 5minut time frame. And then we can go on to our next step. Next, what we have is step number two. And what we want to do is wait for a five-minute candle close above or below the fiveminut range. As you can see in this case, we have our first fiveminut candle played out. We consolidate inside of this range. And now, as you can see, we are breaking now the fiveminut range high with a strong candle close above. So in this case, what we'd be looking for is now continuation towards the upside since we're breaking above the 5mm range high. The exact opposite is true. If we broke underneath our 5mm range low, then we'd be looking for, of course, continuation towards the downside since we broke underneath the 5minut range low. And this is done on the 5minut time frame. Step number three is go onto the 1 minute time frame and look for entries for continuation. So we have our 5m minute high marked out. We have our 5m minute low. Now we're currently on the 1 minute time frame. Now in this case, you can see we close above it. Now, we're going to be looking for entries for continuation towards the upside. In this case, we have a strong break above. We have our nice retest off our fivem minute range high. We can be looking for entries right off this area. Looking for, of course, a trade back towards the upside. And the same thing would apply towards the downside. If we broke underneath, we'd have a stop right at break above and we'd be looking for that push towards the downside. So, this is what our trade thesis would look like if we're trading that opening range strategy. With that being said, we understand the direction of the overall markets if we're trending. We understand the setups that I look for and of course where to participate in the markets. Either that be around the previous day's range or of course around the opening range. With that being said, let's now hop onto the charts to show you guys exactly what this looks like in real time. So, as you can see, we're currently on my first example here on Apple and we start off on the daily time frame. As you can see, the overall structure on the daily time frame, if we were to zoom out the past 20 to 40 sessions, we're fairly bullish. As you can see, the overall markets was in a little bit of a downtrend. We broke underneath the EMAs. We bounced off a key technical level support. Now, you can see aggressive buyers are stepping in. We reclaim back above the EMAs with strength and now we're back at our all-time highs area. So, basing off this daily time frame, we are fairly bullish here on Apple. If we can break above our all-time highs, there's a good chance that we continue back towards the upside based off the daily time frame. We're above the EMAs, as I mentioned. Now, let's go on to the hourly time frame. In this case, now we're on the hourly chart. What are some of the levels that we're going to have marked out? For me, what I like here is this level right here, which happens to be our previous day highs. You can see a touch here, touch here, touch here. All we're looking for here now is the breakback above our previous day highs hold for this continuation back towards the upside. So, what we can do in this case is mark out the previous day high level. And as you can see, we want to expand this into an area where we have multiple touches. And as I mentioned, now we're just looking for this break flip for a push back towards the upside. Now, we can go on to the lower time frames. We're currently on the lower time frames and as you can see coming to market open, we are above our previous day highs. So, what we just like to see is it maintain above our previous day highs for of course continuation back towards the upside. As you can see right here on Apple, we're breaking outside of this previous day highs range. Now, what we like to see is if buyers can step in above our previous day highs in this 317 for continuation towards the upside. As you can see right there on Apple, we can clearly see that buyers are stepping in off this 318 area. We have a nice strong candle close and then the next candle, we're closing above its previous candle high here as well. So, this is exactly where we can go look long with a stop at low of day. And in this case now for our targets, what we can look to target is all the way back up in towards number one, our pre-market highs. And then next level is all the way back up in towards our all-time highs here on Apple. So we can place our takerit here. And of course, we can have partial targets along the ways as well. And now let's play out the tape. And as you can see right there on Apple, once we're able to flip back above that previous day highs, we had a nice push towards the upside. held the EMAs on the one minute time frame and we had that nice push all the way back up in towards our all-time highs here on Apple. So, as you can see, that was a great example of understanding the trend on the higher time frames and then going onto the lower time frames to look for the setup, which in this case was the previous day high retest and then looking for our entry. Now, let's go on to the next example that we have for us today. Okay, so as you can see, we're on my next example here, which is on Nvidia. We're currently on the daily time frame and basing it off of this daily chart, as you can see, we're in a downtrend. At least the structure is in a downtrend. In this case, we're making lower highs, lower lows, and we're pushing towards the downside. If we're looking at the past 2040 sessions, as you can see, we've been consolidating inside this range. Buyers are now stepping in. We're trying to break outside of this range. So, now we can see a potential move back towards the upside here. If we can get back above the EMAs, if we can hold back above our 200, we can see a nice push back towards the upside here on Nvidia, back up and towards this 210. So, basing it off of this daily chart, I can come to a conclusion that there's not really a strong trend in the markets. We're neither bullish nor bearish. If we're looking at this on the hourly time frame, you can see that we recently broke outside of this trend here as well. So, we have a nice range and now we're breaking outside this range. So on the hourly time frame, I'd say we're bullish as long as we can maintain above our 200, which is our level of resistance now turning into support. We can be looking for, of course, continuation back towards the upside. As for the levels that we can have marked out in this case, uh we can mark out that previous day highs, which is a very key technical area. If we can break above this, then we could be looking for continuation higher. Of course, if we drive up, reject off this area, then you can be looking for a fade back towards the downside. So the levels that I have marked out in this case can be that previous day high. So we can drag this down and we can be looking for that previous day high retest on Nvidia for continuation towards the upside. So as you can see within the first 10 minutes of market open we're pushing up in towards our previous day highs. So far we're having a little bit of reaction off this level. You can see the very next candle buyers are stepping in. We're closing back above this 5m minute range high here as well. So we're right around our previous day highs. We're right around that 5m minute range high. If you go into the one minute time frame here now, we're getting back above our five minute range high along with this previous day highs here as well. So this is where I actually personally entered for a reclaim setup back towards the upside with a stop loss underneath our previous day highs. Looking for a move back up in towards high of day and above. The reason why I was looking for this setup is because we're above our previous day highs. This one showing relative strength. We're reclaiming back above. So that indicates that buyers are stepping in. Tight stop underneath. looking for a push back towards the upside. And as you can see right there on Nvidia, once we broke back above that 5minute range high, nice buyers stepped in right above this level along with our previous day highs for a push all the way back up in towards the upside and above. And this day was a great example of being a little bit patient, waiting for the intraday price action to develop. If you went in for a little bit more of an aggressive entry, you would have got stopped out on the first one. But we're able to wait for that 5minute confirmation back above that 5minute range high and we end up capturing this nice push all the way back towards the upside and above. So let's go on to the next example that we have for us today. So the next example that we have for us today is on MU. And now you can see the daily chart is starting to flip bearish here. As you can see we end up having a nice push towards the upside. But now we're starting to see a lot more weakness underneath these EMAs. We're underneath the 9. We're underneath the 21. And now you can see we have a pretty bearish day and we're starting to push down in towards this key level of support. So I would say within the past 20 sessions, MU is definitely a little bit more bearish on the higher time frame. So now we're trying to break underneath key technical levels here as well. So we're underneath this level of support which is our 880. If we can hold underneath that previous day lows, we can be looking for of course continuation towards the downside. So these are the exact levels that we can have marked out. If we break underneath this 880 now we can be looking for this flip for a push all the way back towards the downside and below. Now let's go on to the 5minut time frame. As you can see within the first 5 minutes price pushes up in towards this previous day low level. Now you can see pretty big upper wick but pretty strong candle close back towards the downside. If we go into the one minute time frame all we're looking for is the flip back underneath our previous day lows. Right now we're also getting that candle close underneath here as well. So this is where we can go looking short. Sh short right here with the candle close underneath with the stop loss at high of day. And now we can be looking for continuation all the way back down towards low of day and below. In this case, we can look for that pre-market lows as a general area for a target. And now let's play out the tape. And as you can see for MU, this is just a quick trade towards the downside underneath our previous day lows targeting that pre-market low area. And as you can see, that would just be a quick move towards the downside. And we'd be looking for continuation as well if you can get underneath that pre-market lows. With that being said, I hope you guys enjoyed today's video and learned something new. If you did learn something new, appreciate if you guys drop a like and sub. And with that being said, I'll see you guys next week for a brand new video. This.