44 Moving Average Advanced Strategy | Technical Analysis | Siddharth Bhanushali
One-time — gone on refresh. Copy it and paste as a YouTube comment.
Why 3.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.13R across 12,642 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 4.8 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 23% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -40% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: 44-period EMA trend-following with three support/resistance levels based on the shape of the moving average (rising/flat/falling) to classify entry quality and confidence, primarily educational framew Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 12,642 trades, win 23%, payoff 4.79, expectancy +0.13R/trade (avg +0.56%/trade).
This is a marginal edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (67% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -18% | -2% | +67% | +30% | -12% | +15% | -6% | -3% | -10% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 820 | 20% | -0.15R | -1.21% |
| 2019 | 1694 | 21% | +0.01R | -0.18% |
| 2020 | 1353 | 28% | +0.46R | +3.53% |
| 2021 | 1498 | 24% | +0.20R | +1.05% |
| 2022 | 1687 | 22% | +0.01R | -0.15% |
| 2023 | 1519 | 28% | +0.57R | +2.29% |
| 2024 | 1511 | 22% | +0.09R | +0.33% |
| 2025 | 1800 | 19% | -0.04R | -0.52% |
| 2026 | 760 | 17% | -0.17R | -1.01% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 70 | 23% | +7.9% | +173% | +552% | +52% |
| 2 | ████████ | 70 | 26% | +5.4% | +143% | +381% | +43% |
| 3 | ████████ | 92 | 25% | +1.8% | +68% | +169% | +43% |
| 4 | ████████ | 74 | 20% | +1.0% | +46% | +72% | +42% |
| 5 | ████████ | 79 | 25% | +2.4% | +94% | +192% | +37% |
| 6 | ████████ | 79 | 28% | +6.5% | +164% | +510% | +36% |
| 7 | ████████ | 79 | 16% | +0.9% | +92% | +68% | +34% |
| 8 | BANDHANBNK free peek | 26 | 15% | -1.3% | +24% | -34% | +32% |
| 9 | ████████ | 63 | 25% | +7.6% | +274% | +478% | +28% |
| 10 | ████████ | 49 | 41% | +4.5% | +55% | +221% | +26% |
| 11 | ████████ | 74 | 27% | +2.3% | +77% | +170% | +25% |
| 12 | ████████ | 92 | 20% | +0.4% | +66% | +41% | +20% |
| 13 | ████████ | 47 | 19% | +1.1% | +53% | +51% | +17% |
| 14 | ████████ | 83 | 33% | +1.4% | +43% | +118% | +16% |
| 15 | ████████ | 69 | 29% | +1.5% | +56% | +101% | +12% |
| 16 | ████████ | 73 | 25% | +0.4% | +21% | +28% | +10% |
| 17 | ████████ | 76 | 21% | -0.3% | +36% | -19% | +10% |
| 18 | ████████ | 83 | 18% | +0.3% | +51% | +22% | +8% |
| 19 | ████████ | 92 | 21% | -0.5% | +12% | -41% | +8% |
| 20 | ████████ | 66 | 30% | +1.4% | +39% | +91% | +7% |
| 21 | ████████ | 80 | 22% | +0.1% | +30% | +4% | -37% |
| 22 | ████████ | 86 | 17% | -0.3% | +34% | -30% | -30% |
| 23 | ████████ | 102 | 15% | -0.2% | +84% | -22% | -27% |
| 24 | ████████ | 94 | 18% | -0.2% | +50% | -15% | -26% |
| 25 | ████████ | 87 | 14% | +0.1% | +59% | +13% | -26% |
| 26 | ████████ | 80 | 22% | +1.3% | +41% | +107% | -25% |
| 27 | ████████ | 80 | 18% | -0.1% | +49% | -8% | -24% |
| 28 | ████████ | 24 | 25% | +2.2% | +44% | +52% | -23% |
| 29 | ████████ | 63 | 21% | +0.6% | +41% | +36% | -22% |
| 30 | ████████ | 86 | 17% | -0.1% | +40% | -13% | -21% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 97 | 26% | +0.16R | +0.25% |
| BANKNIFTY | 106 | 24% | +0.15R | +0.39% |
Full transcript (2681 words)
💬 Trader reviews (traded this? tell others what really happened)
No reviews yet — be the first. Real experiences help other traders more than any backtest.
User opinions, not investment advice. Reviews are moderated before publishing.