30th June Nifty Analysis in Tamil | Bank nifty Analysis in Tamil
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Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ Strong per-trade edge: +0.49R expectancy across 6,070 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.6 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 32% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2022, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -33% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Mechanical intraday breakout strategy with 125-point fixed target and stop-loss on NIFTY/BANKNIFTY, auto-drawn entry/TP/SL lines upon signal. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 6,070 trades, win 32%, payoff 3.56, expectancy +0.49R/trade (avg +2.63%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (67% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-07-06 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5% | +9% | +31% | +22% | -17% | +24% | +22% | -4% | +2% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 12 | 8% | -0.78R | -4.33% |
| 2019 | 517 | 29% | +0.18R | +1.59% |
| 2020 | 767 | 39% | +1.06R | +7.41% |
| 2021 | 1169 | 34% | +0.49R | +3.09% |
| 2022 | 514 | 25% | -0.02R | -0.31% |
| 2023 | 1119 | 40% | +1.24R | +5.49% |
| 2024 | 1149 | 27% | +0.13R | +0.37% |
| 2025 | 535 | 30% | +0.14R | +0.24% |
| 2026 | 288 | 21% | -0.44R | -2.15% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 37 | 35% | +12.7% | +125% | +469% | +89% |
| 2 | ████████ | 52 | 48% | +4.3% | +54% | +226% | +52% |
| 3 | ████████ | 41 | 54% | +34.1% | +181% | +1399% | +34% |
| 4 | ████████ | 28 | 54% | +9.0% | +72% | +253% | +33% |
| 5 | ████████ | 56 | 54% | +24.7% | +124% | +1383% | +24% |
| 6 | ████████ | 28 | 43% | +7.8% | +52% | +219% | +24% |
| 7 | ████████ | 43 | 28% | -1.9% | +21% | -80% | +23% |
| 8 | VEDL free peek | 41 | 37% | +5.6% | +59% | +228% | +18% |
| 9 | ████████ | 48 | 35% | +4.8% | +52% | +229% | +17% |
| 10 | ████████ | 53 | 40% | +10.4% | +176% | +553% | +14% |
| 11 | ████████ | 45 | 36% | +3.6% | +52% | +162% | +10% |
| 12 | ████████ | 44 | 41% | +9.3% | +65% | +411% | +9% |
| 13 | ████████ | 33 | 39% | +3.0% | +82% | +100% | +4% |
| 14 | ████████ | 55 | 44% | +3.9% | +29% | +215% | +3% |
| 15 | ████████ | 47 | 47% | +15.0% | +70% | +705% | +0% |
| 16 | ████████ | 68 | 50% | +8.9% | +75% | +605% | +0% |
| 17 | ████████ | 64 | 39% | +8.8% | +78% | +563% | +0% |
| 18 | ████████ | 59 | 41% | +8.5% | +51% | +501% | +0% |
| 19 | ████████ | 47 | 43% | +9.0% | +70% | +421% | +0% |
| 20 | ████████ | 39 | 41% | +10.3% | +52% | +401% | +0% |
| 21 | ████████ | 30 | 20% | -2.4% | +22% | -71% | -36% |
| 22 | ████████ | 48 | 33% | +4.4% | +69% | +212% | -35% |
| 23 | ████████ | 49 | 22% | -1.1% | +41% | -55% | -32% |
| 24 | ████████ | 48 | 40% | +2.6% | +46% | +123% | -32% |
| 25 | ████████ | 37 | 22% | -0.7% | +55% | -25% | -29% |
| 26 | ████████ | 45 | 36% | +6.4% | +69% | +286% | -29% |
| 27 | ████████ | 45 | 27% | -0.8% | +21% | -36% | -28% |
| 28 | ████████ | 58 | 40% | +5.1% | +46% | +296% | -28% |
| 29 | ████████ | 39 | 28% | +4.1% | +52% | +160% | -27% |
| 30 | ████████ | 44 | 27% | +1.0% | +31% | +46% | -26% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 103 | 27% | +0.15R | +0.23% |
| BANKNIFTY | 79 | 20% | -0.30R | -0.76% |
Full transcript (1094 words)
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