The 3 Step A+ Supply & Demand Strategy (That Actually Works) — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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The 3 Step A+ Supply & Demand Strategy (That Actually Works)

Trade with Pat · watch on YouTube ↗
Analysed 01 Aug 2026, 03:35 PM IST
★★★☆☆ 3.0 / 5
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Heads up: this strategy was originally created for the forex market. We applied the exact same logic to Indian stocks & indices and the backtest completed successfully — every result below is on Indian market data.

Why 3.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)

  • A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.22R across 240 trades

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

FuturesIntradaySwing EMASMA/MAFibonacciDemand/Supply zonesOpening rangeLiquidity/ICTVolume

Claims it makes (quotes pulled from the transcript)

  • “It has a 79% win rate at P&L of over 2,100%.”

Verdict

Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Supply and demand zone trading: identify institutional demand zones (base + explosive candle), confirm trend via swing structure/EMA, enter on slow momentum + candle close/wick into zone with break-of Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 240 trades, win 47%, payoff 1.52, expectancy +0.22R/trade (avg +0.29%/trade).

This is a real edge. Reasonably consistent (88% of years positive).

Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.

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🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)

Tracking since 2026-07-06 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.

Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)

Return+18.3%
CAGR+2.4%
Max drawdown-6.4%
Trades233 · 110 won
₹200,000 → ₹236,516  ·  2019-04-18 → 2026-06-08
20192020202120222023202420252026
+1%+5%+4%+2%+3%+1%+1%+1%

Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)

YearTradesWin %ExpectancyAvg return / trade
20191953% +0.45R +0.51%
20204448% +0.31R +0.66%
20214146% +0.25R +0.35%
20223546% -0.06R +0.11%
20233057% +0.53R +0.40%
20243139% +0.02R -0.01%
20252544% +0.14R +0.02%
20261540% +0.09R +0.08%

Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 117 stocks, incl. 2026)

#StockTradesWin%Avg/tradeBestTotal2026
1 ████████ 425% +0.0% +6% +0% +6%
2 ████████ 450% +1.2% +6% +5% +5%
3 ████████ 1100% +2.6% +3% +3% +3%
4 ████████ 1100% +3.0% +3% +3% +3%
5 ████████ 475% +0.9% +2% +3% +2%
6 ████████ 425% -0.7% +2% -3% +1%
7 ████████ 3100% +4.5% +5% +13% +0%
8 JINDALSTEL free peek 475% +1.9% +5% +8% +0%
9 ████████ 2100% +3.8% +4% +8% +0%
10 ████████ 2100% +3.9% +4% +8% +0%
11 ████████ 2100% +3.7% +4% +7% +0%
12 ████████ 2100% +3.0% +3% +6% +0%
13 ████████ 2100% +2.9% +3% +6% +0%
14 ████████ 1100% +6.2% +6% +6% +0%
15 ████████ 450% +1.2% +7% +5% +0%
16 ████████ 560% +1.0% +3% +5% +0%
17 ████████ 250% +2.3% +6% +5% +0%
18 ████████ 560% +1.0% +3% +5% +0%
19 ████████ 450% +1.1% +7% +5% +0%
20 ████████ 250% +2.7% +8% +5% +0%
21 ████████ 20% -3.0% +-3% -6% -3%
22 ████████ 520% -1.0% +3% -5% -2%
23 ████████ 10% -2.1% +-2% -2% -2%
24 ████████ 425% +0.0% +5% +0% -2%
25 ████████ 250% -0.1% +2% +0% -2%
26 ████████ 250% +0.4% +3% +1% -2%
27 ████████ 250% +2.0% +6% +4% -2%
28 ████████ 540% +0.3% +5% +1% -1%
29 ████████ 30% -2.9% +-3% -9% +0%
30 ████████ 10% -5.6% +-6% -6% +0%
You can see the numbers — see the names. Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel. The worst stock in this table returned -9% under these exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.

Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Full transcript (3378 words)
This three-step supply and demand trading strategy is the foundation behind all of these wins. If you can consistently buy from demand and sell from supply, your trading account is going to thank you. I've been using these concepts for 16 years to help create a better life for my family and one I still can't believe that I'm living. So, today I'm giving you the way that I consistently hit A+ setups in three simple steps. And I'll even show you live trades that I've won using supply and demand to prove that it works. Now, I don't promise or guarantee any future results, but I do hope this can help you in your trading journey. So, smash that like button, subscribe to the channel, and let's pop up the charts. First, let's take a look at my 121 trade back test. It has a 79% win rate at P&L of over 2,100%. Obviously, real trading is harder than back testing, which is why I'll show you real trades later in the video. And I also had this real live trade using the concepts just this morning. Now, as for what you can trade, supply and demand can be used on forex, any crypto, futures, gold, and when should you trade it? Well, you could trade it in any of these sessions right here, but I prefer the London and New York. So, now let's get into the strategy with step one. For step one, we need to identify an area of institutional demand. This can be on any time frame. For this example, I'm on the H1 chart. And before we start, you should know supply and demand can and should be used within every trading strategy. Whether you're using SMC, whether you're using smart money concepts or open range breakouts, this will help you. So, let's play this chart out here and let me show you what I see. We get 1 2 3 four big green candles in a row. Now, in order to move from here all the way up here, it's over 60 pips. This would take about a billion dollars, which means we have institutional demand. Retail traders like you and I can't move the price like this. So, what we do is draw a demand zone. And we draw that on the candle body before the big push up because we had this huge impulsive move up. We know now that the banks and institutions and hedge funds like this level right here because they're the ones that pushed up the price, which gives us an obvious area of interest. Now, the reason I draw the demand zone just on the body right here is because this is where the majority of trading volume occurred during that candle. This just gives us a cleaner, tighter zone where those institutions actually accumulated their positions. It also keeps the zone smaller when we have a big candle like this one. Now, if I had a smaller candle, something like this one right here, I will use wick to wick. or if I have multiple small candles like this, I may just group them up together as the demand zone because I don't like missing trades. The next thing we're looking for is a fair value gap, which is exactly what we get here. We're using this for trend confirmation and momentum. You can see this candle right here and this candle right here do not cover this candle, creating a level of imbalance. And the third thing we want to look for is a confluence stack. So if we scroll out a little bit and we pull our demand zone over, we can look to see if this was a level used in the past. You can see right here and right here, our level was recently used as a resistance. So we can expect this level may be used as a support in the future, giving us an overlap and a stack of confluences. Not only is this point of interest a demand, but it's also now a support. Now, before we get into the next step, I want you to go to the comments and tell me what you want to accomplish from trading in the next 3 months. I'll give my favorite three comments free access to my VIP room. For step two, we need trend confirmation. When you're trading supply and demand, you want to trade with the trend. So, the first thing we're going to do, we're just going to scroll out a little bit on the time frame we're actually on. And let's just mark out our swing low, our swing high, our swing low, our swing high, our swing low, and then our swing high. By doing this, you can easily see here that we are currently in an uptrend. We can map this out further by adding breaks of structure. We have a break of structure here and we have a break of structure here. Basically all that is is when you have the swing high getting taken out by higher price and a swing high being taken out by higher price. We can expect market continuity. Another way of doing this for beginners is to use an EMA. So just come to indicators, select moving average exponential and you can see if the price is above that EMA and creating a big gap off of that EMA then we have that trend confirmation. Now if the price is just crossing up and down up and down above and below that moving average and not creating separation we can avoid the trade. And lastly we could come to a higher time frame like let's go to the 4hour time frame and we could scroll out further and we could do the same thing. Swing low, swing high, swing low and then we're making a new swing high. Right? So on this higher time frame again, we are in that upward trajectory. Now, if you get stuck at any point in the video, please leave a comment. I'll help you out or rewind the video and smash the like button while you're at it. Now, it's time we start having fun. It's step three, entry conditions. Let's do some trading. So, let's play this chart out a little bit right here as we wait for price to get to our zone. You can see right here, price never came to our zone. So, that's not a trade. Now, one of the first things we're looking for is slow momentum, right? This right here is slow momentum, right? We don't want to see this over here. Look over here. You don't want to see that big red candle coming down to your zone. No, no, no. That's not good. You want to see a slow in momentum. That means, look, there's some green candles in here as well as we're slowly coming down. If it's just one big candle, you're not going to be able to catch that. You're going to lose your trade. The next thing we're looking for is the candle to close in the zone or wick into the zone. We do not want the candle to close beneath the zone. If it does, the trade is invalidated. Now, once we're closed into the zone on this candle and then we get the positive green candle right here, we can enter our trade right here on that candle. Your stop loss, you can put it tight to the zone or in this case, look, there's a wick over here. you could put it beneath that wick and that's also beneath the EMA right here. So that's a pretty good level for your stop loss. And then for your takerit, you're going to want to pull that up. A lot of people just go one one. Nothing wrong with that. On this one, I'm going to target some recent price. So let's go something like 1.5 because the price was just at this level right here. And then we can play that trade out, get the reaction to our zone, and smash our takeprofit. And that is truly all three steps. But in order to truly master supply and demand, I'm going to give you my six keys to get valid demand zones and avoid losing trades. But before we do that, let's scroll out here and let's play this chart out and see. You know, Pat, you're just cherrypicking. This doesn't work, right? You're just picking one trade. Now, do you spot another demand zone? Look right here. That's a demand zone. Why? One, two, three big candles in a row. We have the fair value gap right here. So, what happens? Does price come to that area? Let's see. Let's play it out. There it does. Wicks into the zone. Enter a long position right there. Target recent price. Stop loss below the zone 1.4. Play it out. Smash the takerit perfectly. What just happened right there? A winning trade. And what do we see? Another level of demand, right? 1 2 3 four five green candles in a row. Fair value gap right here. Fair value gap right here. Break of structure here. Let's play it out. Boom. Enters the zone. Where do we take the trade? We go long on the green candle right there. We waited for the positive reaction. Stop loss below the demand target recent price here. Let's play it out. Smash the takerit. Very, very nice. Do I need to keep doing this? Is it possible to keep doing this? It is possible. Look, another level of demand right here. Now, we have the big red candles here. So, we have to be cautious. But look, another fair value gap here. Another fair value gap here. So, what do we need to see? We need to see a green candle, right? That's not enough. We need a green candle. There's a green candle. It's a bit big, but we could enter off of that right there. For this one, we can't do a great stop loss, but we could still target 1.5. Let's play that position out. How does it go? Comes back. knocks us out, we lose the trade. Sometimes you lose trades. That's part of trading. Now, let's go through my six keys to make sure that you avoid losses like these. The first key is untested zone. You can see here price doesn't test the zone and then it comes into that area and shoots all the way up. That's what you want to see. Same thing right here. Look, that's when the zone is used, right? This is now a used zone. So when price comes back to that level right there, look, it doesn't hold, it doesn't hold. It breaks through. Why? Because it was already used. You only use that demand zone when it's fresh. Key to close or wick. The price wicking like this is good. If we pull the demand zone up a little bit, this is also still good. Price wicking below, closing inside the zone, no problem. But if the price closes below like this, it is invalid. We're not using it. Number three, the confluent stack. So on this trade, we have price approaching our EMA, which acts as a level of support. If we drag our demand zone over here, you could see this level was used as resistance multiple times, now making it support. And having those two extra confluences gives us the strength to have that trade go in our direction aggressively for the lowest demand. Look, as price pushes up here, we actually create multiple demand zones. We have a demand zone right here from that big push up. We've got a demand zone right here from this big pushup. And what I want you to know is the lowest demand is always the strongest demand. This demand didn't hold. This demand held perfectly. Five, discounted price. In order to get the discounted price, just mark up the swing low, the swing high, the swing low, the swing high, and you want to click over here on the left hand side to your fib retracement. Measure from the bottom of the swing low to the top of the swing low and over. And just make sure that your entry always comes below 50%. So on this demand zone right here, we are below 50%. So that's a good trade. And price smashes the takerit. And lastly, six, break of structure. So, let's just return to the last chart. Look, swing low, swing high, swing low, swing high, swing low, swing high. And what do we want to see? We want to see break of structure every single time. That just means this high is being taken out by the next high, which is being taken out by the next high. And you can see this example right here. You can see what happens. We do not get a break of structure of this high. So, what do you think's going to happen? Price is not going to hold. It's a bad demand zone. Smashes your stop loss. Make sure you get that break of structure. Now, let's do some trading so I can prove supply and demand really works. Now, let's say you got on the computer around 9:00 a.m. Let's do a supply and demand trading day together. So, we are watching price break up. What do you see? Do you see a demand zone? Absolutely. Demand zone number one. We've got our EMA on our chart right here. We're looking for buys. All right, let's continue to play this out. What happens here? Do we get the price come to the zone? No. Do we create a new demand zone? Yes, we do. On this body right here, we have a new demand zone. Kind of small. So, I'll increase it a little bit like this. We have our fair value gap right there. Let's continue to play it out. Boom. We get the candle closure inside of our zone and we got a green candle right there that we could enter off of. Let's target the range here. Let's put our stop loss where below this level, right? Let's put the stop loss right there. We could target 1.83 riskreward on this. It's a fresh zone. We had some green candles in here. So, momentum was slow enough. Okay. So, we set up our buy order right there. Let's pull our takerit all the way up here for about $1,000 and then we can slowly play out this position. Very, very nice. Smashing my takerit. And I promise I haven't even looked at this chart. Okay, so now we won the trade. We have to look for our next setup. So, let's take this demand off. We're not using that demand. Let's take our trade off and let's find a new demand. What do we have right here? That's another demand right where we won the trade. We've got our fair value gap right there. Juicy, juicy. This price didn't tap into the demand yet. So, that is still a valid demand. And we're waiting for price to come down to that level of demand right there. So, let's continue to play this out. You could see here we did not tap our zone yet. We're still waiting for price to come back to our zone. And that is the entry right there. You can see we wicked off of this level right here. So, this is where we're going to set our buy order. I want you to come to indicators. This time, we're going to use a trailing stop indicator right here. Just click on the top one there. Click on settings. For time frame, I'm setting it to 5 minutes because I'm trading on the five minute time frame. And we're going to trail our stop on this position. So, you can see the trade is pushing up, right? We're already at $474, $757. Let's zoom in and watch this thing closely, right? What's happening right now? Price is pushing up. We're not going to exit until price comes below the trailing stop. You can see right here, we wicked the trailing stop, but we're not going to close until price closes beneath the pink line. So, we're just playing this pink line. Now, because of that, look, we're up 1300. Price is continuing to move in our direction. Up, 1500, 1,500, 1,700, up 2,000. Now we're really getting somewhere right now. And then we wicked and then finally we closed. So at this point we have closed this candle beneath the pink line. That's where we're going to exit our trade. So that's a takerit of $1,428. Now I'm going to show you one more trade I took live on stream in front of thousands of my students. Now, before I show you the live trade, if you're looking for a place to trade, I recommend the TripleA AFX brokerage. This is the broker I'm trading with every single day. The spreads are low, the commissions are low, and the link is in the video description. So, click that now and trade where I trade. Let's continue. So, as the market played out, we had a bunch of demand zones that morning live on stream. We had our demand zone right here. The first demand zone. Another demand zone right here. And another demand zone right here. So, I'm just waiting to see if any of these are going to hold. What type of reaction do I get? Look, that one doesn't hold. That one doesn't hold. So, easy. Those are gone, right? Really simple. And then we do have another demand zone right here. Now, you can see it kind of looks like we tapped here, but on the live chart, it did not tap. Okay. So, the next thing I was doing was marking up my range for the day. So, at 9:30 a.m. Eastern, I was setting up my range high and my range low. Okay, this is something I do every single day live on stream. This is my opening range breakout strategy. I look at the first three fiveminute candles of the day. They set the range. You could see the bottom wick and the top wick that sets the range. And then I just want to see the price break and close out the top or the bottom. You could see it broke out the top. That's my confirmation that I want to buy. Again, this is a live trade I took in front of thousands of people. Then we're waiting for price to come back, right? Come back to that demand zone. That's the demand zone. We want to enter the trade in. We don't want to catch these huge red candles. So, I'm waiting for the tap in. I didn't enter right away. I waited for the tap in. Then, I waited for positive momentum. Then, I entered my trading position at this level right here. Here I targeted around $1,300 on the trade. I had my stop loss down below the demand zone right here. And my take-profit, I was watching this trade live, right? So, I was kind of just watching how this trade was going to play out. And it did quickly go in my direction with some huge candles. Too much applause obviously in the stream room. We tap back at the entry level again before continuing to push up. Obviously, this trade worked out in my favor fantastically, as you could see, continuing to push up, inevitably coming all the way up and smashing my takerit right about there. All thanks to supply and demand. Now, if you want some trades from me, join my free trading room or my VIP trading room. Links to both of those are in the description. Please like the video if you got this far. Watch this video right here or definitely watch this video right here. And I'll be back next week. Much love.

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