21-50 EMA STRATEGY FULLY EXPLAINED | STRATEGY | TIMEFRAME | TARGET | BEST TRADING SETUP FOR BEGINNER
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Why 4.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ Strong per-trade edge: +0.35R expectancy across 2,743 trades
- ✓ Convex payoff 3.3 — winners far bigger than losers
- ✕ Only 32% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 3 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2022, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -22% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: EMA 21/50 crossover on 5-min gold (XAUUSD) with pullback entries on bullish/bearish candlestick confirmation patterns; 1:2–1:3 risk-reward targeting. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 2,743 trades, win 32%, payoff 3.29, expectancy +0.35R/trade (avg +1.72%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (67% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-08-03 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +7% | -1% | +18% | +18% | -13% | +28% | +6% | +0% | -2% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 215 | 18% | -0.51R | -3.33% |
| 2019 | 372 | 27% | +0.03R | +0.04% |
| 2020 | 338 | 46% | +1.10R | +8.38% |
| 2021 | 244 | 37% | +0.28R | +1.35% |
| 2022 | 413 | 27% | -0.05R | -0.57% |
| 2023 | 334 | 49% | +1.75R | +7.04% |
| 2024 | 283 | 27% | +0.33R | +1.52% |
| 2025 | 369 | 29% | +0.02R | -0.24% |
| 2026 | 175 | 22% | -0.27R | -1.14% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 21 | 33% | +3.0% | +40% | +64% | +40% |
| 2 | ████████ | 15 | 40% | +7.9% | +54% | +118% | +39% |
| 3 | ████████ | 18 | 33% | +5.2% | +45% | +94% | +37% |
| 4 | ████████ | 18 | 44% | +20.5% | +162% | +369% | +36% |
| 5 | ████████ | 15 | 27% | +2.7% | +37% | +40% | +33% |
| 6 | ████████ | 17 | 12% | -4.5% | +30% | -77% | +30% |
| 7 | ████████ | 19 | 42% | +8.2% | +59% | +156% | +28% |
| 8 | OFSS free peek | 14 | 21% | -0.4% | +24% | -5% | +24% |
| 9 | ████████ | 13 | 54% | +8.0% | +40% | +104% | +21% |
| 10 | ████████ | 18 | 39% | +2.4% | +31% | +44% | +19% |
| 11 | ████████ | 10 | 30% | +3.0% | +30% | +30% | +17% |
| 12 | ████████ | 5 | 40% | +2.8% | +17% | +14% | +11% |
| 13 | ████████ | 19 | 32% | +1.0% | +55% | +19% | +10% |
| 14 | ████████ | 20 | 30% | +0.8% | +34% | +17% | +10% |
| 15 | ████████ | 12 | 58% | +11.3% | +59% | +136% | +9% |
| 16 | ████████ | 17 | 35% | +8.2% | +122% | +139% | +8% |
| 17 | ████████ | 19 | 37% | +4.8% | +105% | +92% | +6% |
| 18 | ████████ | 15 | 53% | +4.4% | +21% | +66% | +6% |
| 19 | ████████ | 21 | 29% | +0.8% | +56% | +16% | +6% |
| 20 | ████████ | 14 | 29% | -1.6% | +17% | -22% | +6% |
| 21 | ████████ | 21 | 33% | +2.3% | +50% | +48% | -19% |
| 22 | ████████ | 16 | 38% | +2.0% | +24% | +32% | -16% |
| 23 | ████████ | 20 | 45% | +5.1% | +47% | +101% | -16% |
| 24 | ████████ | 19 | 32% | +5.4% | +80% | +102% | -16% |
| 25 | ████████ | 22 | 23% | -1.3% | +25% | -29% | -15% |
| 26 | ████████ | 21 | 24% | +0.8% | +57% | +16% | -15% |
| 27 | ████████ | 18 | 39% | +0.5% | +20% | +9% | -14% |
| 28 | ████████ | 17 | 29% | -1.1% | +25% | -18% | -12% |
| 29 | ████████ | 18 | 28% | +0.4% | +22% | +7% | -12% |
| 30 | ████████ | 17 | 29% | +1.5% | +39% | +25% | -12% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 17 | 53% | +1.36R | +2.18% |
| BANKNIFTY | 21 | 48% | +0.93R | +3.06% |
Full transcript (6131 words)
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