100% working Option buying Strategy Masterclass | Complete Live Class (Tamil) #nifty50
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Why 3.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ A real but modest per-trade edge: +0.22R across 18,157 trades
- ✕ Only 35% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 4 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2024, 2025, 2026) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -23% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
- ✕ Most of the big total return is compounding in a rising market (beta) — the per-trade edge above is what would survive a different regime
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: ORB (Opening Range Breakout) on NIFTY50: mark 9:30–9:40 range on 5-min chart, wait for Supertrend(10,3) confirmation, enter short call option on 3-min breakout, SL 30 points, target 80 points (1:2.67 Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 18,157 trades, win 35%, payoff 2.61, expectancy +0.22R/trade (avg +1.08%/trade).
This is a real edge. The payoff is convex (winners run well past the average loser). Reasonably consistent (56% of years positive).
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)
Tracking since 2026-08-12 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +4% | +7% | +99% | +27% | -3% | +11% | -2% | +5% | -5% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 913 | 27% | -0.35R | -2.29% |
| 2019 | 1872 | 32% | +0.02R | +0.15% |
| 2020 | 2322 | 45% | +0.63R | +4.74% |
| 2021 | 2401 | 37% | +0.38R | +2.03% |
| 2022 | 2319 | 32% | +0.01R | -0.17% |
| 2023 | 2713 | 44% | +0.89R | +3.71% |
| 2024 | 2421 | 29% | -0.02R | -0.44% |
| 2025 | 2199 | 30% | -0.10R | -0.77% |
| 2026 | 997 | 25% | -0.29R | -1.45% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 124 | 52% | +13.2% | +124% | +1636% | +195% |
| 2 | ████████ | 106 | 51% | +24.8% | +182% | +2627% | +186% |
| 3 | ████████ | 96 | 29% | +0.2% | +47% | +19% | +143% |
| 4 | ████████ | 98 | 45% | +6.9% | +85% | +673% | +121% |
| 5 | ████████ | 136 | 44% | +5.3% | +61% | +723% | +86% |
| 6 | ████████ | 122 | 45% | +4.4% | +59% | +539% | +76% |
| 7 | ████████ | 103 | 35% | +3.8% | +101% | +391% | +65% |
| 8 | ADANIPORTS free peek | 124 | 35% | +0.8% | +42% | +101% | +50% |
| 9 | ████████ | 119 | 38% | +1.0% | +59% | +124% | +45% |
| 10 | ████████ | 39 | 23% | -2.5% | +17% | -97% | +39% |
| 11 | ████████ | 62 | 42% | +3.9% | +70% | +243% | +34% |
| 12 | ████████ | 113 | 33% | -0.7% | +16% | -80% | +28% |
| 13 | ████████ | 111 | 43% | +2.7% | +52% | +296% | +25% |
| 14 | ████████ | 127 | 39% | +0.4% | +27% | +57% | +25% |
| 15 | ████████ | 109 | 43% | +7.6% | +146% | +830% | +23% |
| 16 | ████████ | 127 | 36% | +1.5% | +71% | +188% | +15% |
| 17 | ████████ | 142 | 37% | +1.0% | +32% | +148% | +15% |
| 18 | ████████ | 126 | 32% | +1.0% | +58% | +128% | +15% |
| 19 | ████████ | 105 | 38% | +6.0% | +125% | +632% | +9% |
| 20 | ████████ | 118 | 41% | +1.8% | +39% | +212% | +7% |
| 21 | ████████ | 127 | 30% | +0.0% | +42% | +6% | -51% |
| 22 | ████████ | 141 | 40% | +2.5% | +51% | +351% | -49% |
| 23 | ████████ | 124 | 28% | +0.2% | +61% | +22% | -41% |
| 24 | ████████ | 122 | 34% | +1.2% | +58% | +151% | -39% |
| 25 | ████████ | 121 | 31% | +1.7% | +106% | +205% | -39% |
| 26 | ████████ | 121 | 38% | +1.7% | +51% | +206% | -39% |
| 27 | ████████ | 126 | 33% | -0.9% | +49% | -108% | -37% |
| 28 | ████████ | 120 | 32% | -0.3% | +34% | -40% | -35% |
| 29 | ████████ | 127 | 32% | +0.5% | +71% | +60% | -35% |
| 30 | ████████ | 99 | 26% | -1.2% | +36% | -123% | -34% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 224 | 36% | +0.14R | -0.01% |
| BANKNIFTY | 194 | 36% | +0.21R | +0.51% |
Full transcript (9153 words)
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