$1 to $8.494 | Binary Options Trading Strategy
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Why 2.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✕ Roughly ZERO per-trade edge (+0.02R) — real costs eat whatever is there
- ✕ Only 31% of trades win — the rare big winners must keep showing up
- ✕ 5 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2022, 2025) — the edge is regime-dependent
- ✕ Max drawdown -74% on the ₹2L portfolio — the compounded return came with deep pain along the way
Detected components (auto-read from transcript)
Verdict
Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: 2/5 moving average crossover on 2-min forex bars, confirmed by RSI midline stability and fractal signals. Ran on 159 large/mid-caps, real costs. 27,900 trades, win 31%, payoff 2.43, expectancy +0.02R/trade (avg -0.06%/trade).
This is essentially breakeven. Regime-dependent — positive in only 44% of years.
Mechanically decoded from the transcript and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review; a hand-vetted verdict can override it.
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
₹2,00,000 portfolio (max 5 positions, across the stock universe — real delivery costs)
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -19% | -35% | -11% | +26% | -30% | +6% | -19% | -15% | -10% |
Simulated on the 159 large/mid-cap universe. Capital-constrained, daily mark-to-market.
Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)
| Year | Trades | Win % | Expectancy | Avg return / trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1646 | 27% | -0.06R | -0.67% |
| 2019 | 3436 | 28% | -0.04R | -0.44% |
| 2020 | 3360 | 36% | +0.17R | +1.06% |
| 2021 | 3505 | 33% | +0.10R | +0.38% |
| 2022 | 3443 | 30% | -0.01R | -0.34% |
| 2023 | 3552 | 34% | +0.13R | +0.33% |
| 2024 | 3634 | 31% | +0.00R | -0.23% |
| 2025 | 3850 | 28% | -0.07R | -0.63% |
| 2026 | 1474 | 26% | -0.09R | -0.56% |
Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)
| # | Stock | Trades | Win% | Avg/trade | Best | Total | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ████████ | 168 | 32% | +4.2% | +209% | +699% | +39% |
| 2 | ████████ | 159 | 36% | +1.0% | +37% | +159% | +39% |
| 3 | ████████ | 62 | 19% | -1.2% | +31% | -72% | +34% |
| 4 | ████████ | 169 | 37% | +3.0% | +158% | +506% | +33% |
| 5 | ████████ | 166 | 32% | +0.8% | +55% | +135% | +28% |
| 6 | ████████ | 163 | 33% | +0.5% | +42% | +82% | +26% |
| 7 | ████████ | 189 | 27% | +1.5% | +83% | +292% | +25% |
| 8 | OFSS free peek | 187 | 27% | -0.0% | +43% | -6% | +25% |
| 9 | ████████ | 167 | 35% | +0.8% | +46% | +140% | +24% |
| 10 | ████████ | 165 | 32% | +1.4% | +68% | +226% | +23% |
| 11 | ████████ | 184 | 26% | -0.7% | +20% | -123% | +23% |
| 12 | ████████ | 169 | 31% | +2.0% | +94% | +346% | +21% |
| 13 | ████████ | 187 | 33% | +0.4% | +34% | +66% | +21% |
| 14 | ████████ | 185 | 28% | +0.3% | +27% | +47% | +21% |
| 15 | ████████ | 169 | 25% | +0.0% | +29% | +3% | +21% |
| 16 | ████████ | 171 | 29% | +0.1% | +26% | +9% | +15% |
| 17 | ████████ | 171 | 31% | +0.7% | +39% | +120% | +13% |
| 18 | ████████ | 198 | 25% | -0.9% | +24% | -182% | +13% |
| 19 | ████████ | 179 | 30% | +0.1% | +30% | +15% | +12% |
| 20 | ████████ | 179 | 31% | +0.5% | +60% | +92% | +11% |
| 21 | ████████ | 174 | 33% | +0.2% | +24% | +36% | -39% |
| 22 | ████████ | 177 | 34% | -0.1% | +40% | -23% | -35% |
| 23 | ████████ | 179 | 28% | -0.4% | +22% | -66% | -33% |
| 24 | ████████ | 187 | 28% | -0.4% | +29% | -69% | -30% |
| 25 | ████████ | 174 | 28% | -0.4% | +30% | -68% | -30% |
| 26 | ████████ | 188 | 32% | -0.1% | +22% | -18% | -30% |
| 27 | ████████ | 185 | 25% | -0.4% | +30% | -79% | -29% |
| 28 | ████████ | 180 | 27% | -0.3% | +37% | -57% | -27% |
| 29 | ████████ | 203 | 25% | -0.4% | +70% | -90% | -26% |
| 30 | ████████ | 188 | 30% | -0.3% | +22% | -62% | -26% |
Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)
| Index | Trades | Win% | Expectancy (R/trade) | Avg return/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 248 | 32% | -0.05R | -0.38% |
| BANKNIFTY | 248 | 33% | -0.01R | -0.25% |
Full transcript (2227 words)
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