1% Risk, 5x Reward? 🤯 Ratio Spread se Expiry Day Income | Live Demo (Nifty/Sensex) | Theta Gainers
Why 2.5/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)
- ✓ Net +793.2% on capital over the tested window (2015-01-09 → 2026-06-08, 562 trades)
- ✕ Wins 68% of the time — but the average loss (₹9,356) is 1.4× the average win (₹6,485). Classic short-premium shape: many small wins, rare big hits
- ✕ Worst single trade ₹-129,581 — one bad move erases ~20 average wins
- ✕ Max drawdown -154% along the way — deep for a 'low-risk' pitch
- ✕ Short sample (562 trades over 12 months) with no true market crash in the window — the tail event that hurts option sellers most is untested
Verdict
Real option backtest. Reconstructed on actual NIFTY option premiums (2015-01-09 → 2026-06-08, 562 weekly trades) — legs: buy 1x CE+0 + buy 1x PE+0 + sell 3x CE+0 + sell 3x PE+0, with real multi-leg costs.
Net +793.2% on ₹1L (+69.5%/yr over 11.4 years) (positive), win 68%, avg win ₹6,485 / avg loss ₹-9,356 (avg loss BIGGER than avg win), max drawdown -154% (worst week ₹-129,581). High win-rate is the normal face of short options; the drawdown and the negative skew are the real risk that a short 'backtest' window hides.
Real premiums: minute-level history resampled to daily closes (2015–2026; monthly contracts before 2019 — weeklies didn't exist).
Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)
Month by month (real NIFTY option premiums · net P/L after costs, on ₹1,00,000)
| Month | Trades | Win % | Net P/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 52 | 69% | ₹+194,394 |
| 2016 | 52 | 63% | ₹-76,230 |
| 2017 | 52 | 50% | ₹-68,202 |
| 2018 | 53 | 70% | ₹+42,531 |
| 2019 | 37 | 70% | ₹+37,352 |
| 2020 | 34 | 62% | ₹+75,687 |
| 2021 | 52 | 71% | ₹+90,467 |
| 2022 | 52 | 67% | ₹+59,294 |
| 2023 | 52 | 67% | ₹-953 |
| 2024 | 51 | 75% | ₹+177,149 |
| 2025 | 52 | 79% | ₹+202,322 |
| 2026 | 23 | 74% | ₹+59,355 |
Full transcript (4541 words)
💬 Trader reviews (traded this? tell others what really happened)
No reviews yet — be the first. Real experiences help other traders more than any backtest.
User opinions, not investment advice. Reviews are moderated before publishing.