My $1,300,000 Trading Strategy (Explained in 10 Minutes) — backtested on Indian market data | FakeTrades
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My $1,300,000 Trading Strategy (Explained in 10 Minutes)

Analysed 01 Aug 2026, 02:48 PM IST
★☆☆☆☆ 1.0 / 5
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Heads up: this strategy was originally created for the US stock market. We applied the exact same logic to Indian stocks & indices and the backtest completed successfully — every result below is on Indian market data.

Why 1.0/5? (stars grade the EDGE — per-trade expectancy, consistency, drawdown — not the headline return)

  • Negative expectancy: -0.24R per trade across 28,458 trades
  • Payoff 0.60 — the average winner is SMALLER than the average loser
  • 9 of 9 tested years were negative (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021) — the edge is regime-dependent

Detected components (auto-read from transcript)

FuturesIntraday Volume

Verdict

Auto-backtested. AI-decoded: Intraday futures strategy trading fair-value reversions: continuation on session/news open, then revert to pre-open price via break-of-structure entries on Nasdaq futures. We isolated the one mechanical claim — a day-of-week bias where a prior session's level is expected to be 'revisited'/swept — and traded it short across 159 large/mid-caps with real costs: 28,458 trades, win 49%, expectancy -0.24R/trade (avg -0.24%/trade).

The result is a high win-rate that still loses money after costs — a negative-skew mirage: small targets, larger adverse moves. A directional lean can be statistically real yet still fail to pay once you attach a target, a stop and costs.

Mechanically decoded and scored from the metrics. Flagged for human review.

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🔴 Live forward test (no hindsight — only trades the rules fired AFTER we published this verdict)

Tracking since 2026-07-14 — no qualifying signals have fired yet. The engine re-checks every night on fresh data; results appear here the day the rules trigger.

Is it profitable? (green above the line = made money, red below = lost it)

Year by year (every trade the rules fired, across the tested stocks)

YearTradesWin %ExpectancyAvg return / trade
2018171547% -0.21R -0.26%
2019346750% -0.22R -0.21%
2020322748% -0.05R -0.11%
2021338049% -0.30R -0.33%
2022384258% -0.06R -0.10%
2023364241% -0.41R -0.34%
2024352142% -0.37R -0.34%
2025403349% -0.30R -0.26%
2026163156% -0.15R -0.17%

Where this strategy made & lost money (the full stock-by-stock breakdown — 158 stocks, incl. 2026)

#StockTradesWin%Avg/tradeBestTotal2026
1 ████████ 18852% -0.1% +6% -16% +6%
2 ████████ 17949% -0.3% +7% -47% +5%
3 ████████ 19253% -0.1% +6% -13% +4%
4 ████████ 5657% -0.3% +2% -15% +4%
5 ████████ 18948% -0.2% +10% -46% +4%
6 ████████ 19242% -0.3% +9% -59% +4%
7 ████████ 15043% -0.5% +4% -76% +4%
8 IDFCFIRSTB free peek 17953% -0.0% +11% -8% +3%
9 ████████ 18252% -0.1% +9% -10% +3%
10 ████████ 17854% -0.1% +3% -9% +2%
11 ████████ 19251% -0.1% +7% -14% +2%
12 ████████ 10551% -0.2% +5% -22% +2%
13 ████████ 18750% -0.2% +3% -39% +2%
14 ████████ 17549% -0.2% +3% -40% +2%
15 ████████ 18849% -0.2% +4% -44% +2%
16 ████████ 17050% -0.3% +3% -46% +2%
17 ████████ 17951% -0.3% +5% -46% +2%
18 ████████ 18350% -0.3% +6% -47% +2%
19 ████████ 16545% -0.3% +2% -49% +2%
20 ████████ 18849% -0.3% +3% -51% +2%
21 ████████ 19050% -0.4% +3% -70% -13%
22 ████████ 18642% -0.3% +10% -60% -9%
23 ████████ 18847% -0.3% +3% -56% -9%
24 ████████ 18653% -0.1% +13% -25% -9%
25 ████████ 18843% -0.3% +8% -48% -8%
26 ████████ 18350% -0.2% +11% -37% -8%
27 ████████ 18048% -0.2% +7% -32% -8%
28 ████████ 18543% -0.4% +3% -73% -7%
29 ████████ 15148% -0.3% +3% -48% -7%
30 ████████ 20644% -0.2% +6% -43% -7%
You can see the numbers — see the names. Unlock every stock in this breakdown and download it as Excel. The worst stock in this table returned -76% under these exact rules — one wrong pick costs many times the unlock.

Educational backtest output only — not investment advice or a recommendation to buy/sell any security. AI-generated from stored historical data; not 100% accurate. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

On the index (same rules applied to NIFTY & BANKNIFTY)

IndexTradesWin%Expectancy (R/trade)Avg return/trade
NIFTY24235% -0.55R -0.19%
BANKNIFTY25445% -0.41R -0.18%
Full transcript (2234 words)
I made over 1.3 million dollars from prop firms in the last 12 months. This is my trading strategy explained in just 10 minutes. All right, I'm going to go over 5 days from this week of the New York AM session. And what I'm looking for in my strategy is to mark out the price of the pre-open. Now, I'm going to wait for a continuation away from this price. I believe that this is the fair price. This is something I studied in college, and fair price is basically the price before the session open, because when the session opens, there's an influx of volume from institutions that are willing to trade unfairly. So, they pump up the price or they'll dump the price away from a fair price. And you can sort of analyze that with volume. So, just like looking at this here, for example, session opens right here, crazy increase in volume, huge move up. Now, you got to think to yourself, are we really changing the fair value price of Nasdaq futures? Because we're pricing companies here. So, are we really changing the fair price of these companies just because the session opened? Well, not really, which is why the first trade I take is a continuation of the influx of volume, usually because it's just a sum of the overnight orders that are executed on the opening candle, and it creates a very good bias. And if you have your bias right when you're trading props, you're going to make a lot of money in the long run. After that, I will just trade a reversion back to what I believe to be the fair price, which is pretty much just the session open. Fair prices only ever changed by news and by session opens. Now, session open's not going to actually change the fair price, but it'll change the real price, which is over here on the right side. So, it'll change the price of the future. That's why I revert it. So, just be aware did news cause this move or was it like a session open? What caused it? Unfair, fair, news. All the videos are on my page. So, I'll just get into it really quickly here what I would do for all 5 days this week. All right, so the first day is Friday. I have the pre-open price marked here. First candle is green, but very slightly. Anyways, second candle clearly breaks up and closes above all of these previous ones. So, I would just take a very quick continuation long. The candle is 29 points, so I would do a 50 point stop and a 76 point take profit. My usual rule for that is if the candle's over 25 points, then I don't do my 25 stop 38 profit. I would divide size by two and I'll do 50 and 76. So, that creates a pretty easy continuation trade right there. If for some reason you miss this first one, it's also fine to get in right here. For continuation trade, I'm just trading the direction of the open. So, in this case, the opening price is here and it opens and closes above structure here. Also, this one opens and closes above this opening candle here. So, these would be my two entries for continuation longs on this day. Now, for reversion, I just trade back to the pre-open price, as always. Entry would just be off of a break of structure. So, I'm looking through here, waiting for the first break of structure, and the first one we see is right here. This candle breaks below this structure and this structure, and there's no wick on the bottom, so it's a pretty strong displacement and break of structure candle. I always do 25 and 38 for these take profits. Sometimes I'll target more. In this case, you're even getting 100 points to fair price, so this is a very, very profitable trade for you to take all the way back to the opening price. Some people wanted to trade continuations here, away from this. I would probably not do that. I only like to take continuation longs right when session opens, because that is when the unfair moves happen. After that, I'm just looking for reverses to this price here. It moves up more, but I don't see an entry back here. It moves all the way down, and I don't really see a break of structure here to get back to fair price. After that, lots of consolidation here, just proving that this was indeed the fair price throughout the day. More consolidation more more more and then the market eventually closes right here. So, there was no news on this day, which means it opened and it closed at the exact same price, as expected, because nothing changed the fair price of futures, let alone the market open. So, when it moved up more than 100 points up, I'm so excited to short that, because no news has caused anything that should change the fair value pricing of companies of Nasdaq. And the futures are just the future price of Nasdaq. So, might as well just trade a reversion back to the fair price. Now, let's go over Thursday. Thursday is a little bit different. In this case, we had news at 8:30. If you haven't seen my news video, go check that out, but I'll just keep that in here for example. News came out at 8:30. News is basically like another session open. You can take continuation long since news was green. Pretty much same trade as the open. Anything you want to do there would be totally fine. After that, I would trade a reversion back to the pre-news price. So, instead of coming back to the pre-open price on this example, I would trade back to the pre-news price. This is because eight-folder This is because red folder news at 8:30 is always priced in, in my opinion, which means that moves like this are very, very unfair. Then, whenever the market opens or break structure back down to the downside, I am very interested in shorting back to the pre-news price. In this example, you would have gotten wicked out on market open. I do recommend going break even if the market's going to open while you're in a trade, just because you have crazy wicks like this, just filled with the overnight volume. In this example, there was lots of green momentum coming into the open, especially since news was green. And then, when the market opened, it had a very large green candle, wicks you out before coming to your take profit. If for some reason you got wicked out here, like I did, shouldn't have taken the trade. I just re-entered here when it broke structure again down to the downside. Now, let's go over Wednesday. Wednesday, we didn't have any 8:30 a.m. news. We had the market open at 9:30, and I would just take a very quick continuation short. Again, 50-point candle, so I would do a 50-point stop and a 76-point take profit. This is just my risk pretty much my standard risk management protocol is a 1:1.5, just because prop firms are minus 2,000 to plus 3,000, meaning it's a 1:1.5 to pass your eval. So, I just separate my trades in a 1:1.5, makes passing very much easier. Anyways, just take a very quick continuation short cuz the opening candle is huge and red. If you didn't get this one for some reason, you can also enter there. It's kind of the same thing, but first one just gives me uh I'm selling a little bit higher, so it's like slightly more likely to win, so I'll always take that. After that, I would believe that pre-open price is probably fair price, and then I would go long off break of structure. First one I see is right here. Usual target 38 points. Unfortunately, misses by 2 and 1/2 points. Then after that, I would reenter on the next break of structure, which is this one right here. This one hits 38 points by 1.5 points. So, very glad to have won that. Last trade would be this one right here. Lose, unfortunately. And then this one right here, win. After that, I'm just done trading once it hits 11:00 a.m. because the volume dies out. So, uh very interesting day today. Unfortunately, did not revert during the market open. It kind of reverted all the way here when the market was finally closing but still no reversion on open, but win, loss, win, loss, win. So, I mean, still incredibly winning at a 1.5 risk to reward as well. Even on days it doesn't fully revert, you're still getting some of that that action back up towards the fair price. Next, let's go over Tuesday. Very good day for reversion, as usual. I will just mark out the pre-open price. In this day, very large wick rejecting long, so I would probably just go short as soon as the opening candle forms. You could do 25 points, and you get saved by uh one point right there. The body of the opening candle is 18 points, so risk management says, "Go with a 25-point stop, 38-point take profit." And there you go, you hit a win right there. After that, let's just trade it back to the pre-open price. Enter off the first break of structure we see, which is right here, because this is structure here. 38-point take profit gets hit right there. After that, you could continue to short. You could enter here. There is no structure broken here or here, but it is optional for you to short. I would probably have waited until it actually breaks structure to short. And for the first break of structure, let's see, it is right here. So, first break of structure, just always stick to the rules. And in this case, you are getting 181 points in your favor to fair price. That is an insane amount of points. Uh with one contract, I don't even know how much that is, like 3.6k. That's a a ton of money. So, very very insane perfect reversion there on this day. After 11:00 a.m., I am done trading as well, but I'll let a position play out if I'm still in one. So, when it breaks structure here, I will send one two contracts short and just let it play out. Now, I will go over Monday. Monday was a bank holiday, but I still like to trade them if there's an influx in volume when the market opens. Just because that means there's still going to be an unfair move. So, here I'll just mark out the pre-open price. There is an influx in volume just cuz you can see the 9:30 a.m. candle that's larger than most of these candles. I would do a continuation long, just enter right here, 38 points. Definitely don't go for 76 here because it's bank holiday and it it's very unlikely to continue that far away from a fair price. Also, I only take continuations in like the first 10-15 minutes because when the unfair initial opening move stops, I definitely want to be shorting for reversion. Anyways, fair price is here, quick move up, unfair. I would take a short off break of structure. First break of structure that I see is this one right here. And it's giving 33 and 1/2 points, so target 38 points. Very quick trade right there. It does move down even farther, so if you wanted to scalp a a little quick long back to fair price, you could. And then this was the tweet and this was the tweet as well. So, tweets are traded a lot differently, but I hope this was a very good informative video on how you can trade the strategy. I hope simplifying it made it a lot easier to understand. Last thing I'll mention is I have a free website here. I'll put it in the description. You insert your trading stats, total wins, total trades, wins, average win, average loss, calculate EV, and then based on your stats, it will tell you the optimal prop you can trade with. So, based on my stats, if I trade this account, I'm going to make $225 per eval I purchase, but if I buy this one, I'm going to lose $186 per eval I purchase. I'm even going to lose on this eval and this eval. So, hopefully this website, which is free and in the description, is going to help you trade on the optimal prop firm. Thank you guys for watching. If you want to join the free Discord in the description, we can talk about my website there or talk about the strategy, send you trades, all that sort of stuff. So, uh go hit that up and if you want proof of my payouts and stuff, go check out any of my other videos like uh I'm going to link one here. It's my news trading video. Proof screen recorded in the first 15 seconds of that. But, hopefully you enjoyed the video and have a good one.

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